With 11 days to go (counting today) until the Houston Municipal run-off election I thought I'd make an observation or three.....
Turner is getting increasingly desperate.
There has to be some negative polling behind these attacks. His campaign has, over the last week, turned extremely negative against King which suggests to me that his internal numbers are not good. Also, he appears to be inventing attacks from ether now as well. It's never a good sign for a campaign when supporters (even the dim ones) have to use blurbs like "real world experience" to suggest that a lifetime spent in the legislative branch provides one with executive experience.
Chris Brown doesn't understand that his endorsement list is not flattering.
I think he's in trouble as well. While it's hard to gain traction in Houston's Under-the-radar Controller's race touting the endorsement of the people who got the City into this mess, and who people are starting to realize got them there, is hardly a winning strategy. Brown is seemingly left with "I'm Peter Brown's son" (not popular) or "Vote for me, I'm a Democrat" in what is a non-partisan race. Meanwhile, his opponent took the Chronicle endorsement. (Thus proving that a stopped clock is correct twice per day)
LULAC and the Harris County GOP are planning something.
First, it's about time the GOP figured out that they have more in common with Hispanic voters than they have differences with them. Second, if the GOP decides to use this as a platform for King (again, non-partisan race but I think they would rather have King in office) even unofficially this spells trouble for Turner. Which could explain all of the negative ads above.
Looking at these things I think the Turner campaign is finding itself where it always does, swimming upstream with little support outside of his congressional district and having trouble breaking in to other voter groups. Given that, here are some updated odds.
Houston Mayor:
Sylvester Turner: +300
Bill King: -270
Houston Controller:
Chris Brown: +800
Bill Frazer: -770
Again, I'll take my share on the Vig. I also should add that, without polling numbers, these odds are purely speculative and could be out of whack totally. That said, given the issues with Houston's polling in the first go-around I'd say they're just as reliable as the first.
One thing remains clear: The so-called "experts" analyzing this race for the media are not distinguishing themselves, to-date, in their analysis.
Early voting starts today (12/2) and runs through 12/8. If you can, go and vote. Not residing inside the Houston City limits, I can't and won't. This will be the last update I give on the election, so here's hoping Houston gets the elected officials it deserves.
