Making Plans for Houston's Future. The Chronicle Editorial Board, HoustonChronicle.com ($$$)
He promised during his Saturday-night victory remarks that his only criterion for governing will be whatever's in the best interest of Houston. It's a worthy aim for a man who obviously loves this city, a man who has a big job to do during the next four years. We wish him the very best.
Winning was easy compared to what awaits Turner. Mike Morris and Katherine Driessen. HoustonChronicle.com ($$$)
The city's challenges, however, mean there are few better chances for an ambitious politician to leave his mark on the city.
It also could partly insulate the new boss from criticism, Jones said, in that any improvement could be cast as the age-old question of "are you better off than you were four years ago?"
It's probable that the first two years of a Turner Mayoral stint will be known more for trying to ride out the storm rather than actually accomplishing anything meaningful. Were I a betting man (and as you know I am) I would be willing to place odds in favor of Turner's only accomplishments during this first stretch to be in those areas outside of the nuts and bolts of city governorship that he campaigned on.
Income Inequality: My expectation is that Turner forwards an ordinance to raise the minimum wage in the city sooner and not later. He might even forward this in his first 100 days in office. Whatever happens, an ordinance of this type is almost certain to be challenged legally so early admission would allow this the chance to be voted on November 2016, during a Presidential election when Democratic voter turn-out is expected to be sky-high.
Appointments: I fully expect Turner to replace current HPD Chief McClelland with Adrian Garcia, and to appoint a Metro Board who will bring in Stephen Costello to head-up Houston Metro. One thing about being a political lifer, there are a LOT of people who will now be expecting to ride Turner's coattails to ensure places at the trough.
I'm calling this "The Machine" and it has to be fed.
A "divided" Houston: The Chronicle is already all over this one. And I predict that a 'divided' city is going to become something that the elites view is a critical fix. It will also serve as a convenient distraction from the fiscal cliff that Houston is hurtling toward.
One problem Turner is going to have here comes from the progressive base of Houston Democrats. Already they're taking a victory lap and taunting those evil Republicans, calling every Republican discussion of the election outcome, no matter how serious, "butt hurt". (Which is what passes for witty reposts in progressive circles.) To be fair, there is a sizable portion of the Houston Republican base that's not all that interested in reconciliation either. I've already seen comments bemoaning that "Houston has elected another queer" (something that is rumored*, but not acknowledged by Turner himself)
One thing about Turner, as opposed to out-going Mayor Annise Parker, is that he seems to have solid political instincts, and an understanding that outright vilification of your political opponents is rarely wise. This is not to say that he's a big enough political person to actually incorporate their ideas (time will tell on that) but that he at least is smart enough to understand that giving the other side a chance to present them is a solid political move.
HER Ordinance: I think it's going to be a necessity that Turner bring this back sooner than he is hoping to. I believe that the political pressure from progressive groups is going to be too much to hold off for long.
Again, there are progressive factions within the Houston Democratic Party who view debates such as the one over HER Ordinance as a chance to beat their political opponents over the head with a cudgel and reinforce their sense of political (and moral) superiority. This is another part of the machine (the egos of fringe political actors) that must be fed constantly or it will start to eat its own.
The status quo on City finances is a good thing for Turner. While it's being downplayed by the Chronicle in their reporting, the City of Houston Municipal Unions were key to Turner winning the run-off. Without their support we would be looking at Mayor-elect King right now. The problem that Turner is going to face is this: Despite his public concern regarding the state of Houston's pensions those groups that provided him the most support did so because there was a belief he is going to, mostly, leave things as they are.
Turner's political patron, State Senator John Whitmire, has a personal financial interest in the fire-fighters union, and there's no doubt that he will push Turner to move in ways that benefit both the firefighters local and himself.
Another thing keeping things constant will do for Turner is bolster the argument that the pillow-soft revenue cap has to be broken and the property tax rates must be increased. I have no doubt that Turner will bring in people who can craft a new city budget, and that it is going to call for what some will term "painful" cuts. I also know that any good politician will target those cuts to have the maximum effect. Think of how President Obama tried to handle so-called sequestration.
The good news, for Turner, is that he can blame a declining oil market and (carefully mind you) prior administrations for putting Houston in this fix. He can also, more likely, blame the Republican-controlled Texas Legislature. This provides him with some political cover and additional justification for busting the cap.
The important thing for Turner is that the expectations are already being set low. The media, and political observers that they listen to, are already lowering the expectation bar to a level where Turner could shuffle his feet and clear it with room to spare. Were we looking at Mayor-Elect King, the media would already be talking about how important it was that he enact changes quickly, that he not delay. While it's claimed that low expectations are a soft bigotry they can also be a reward.
Turner is currently receiving too much deference from local media, time will tell if he has the talent to govern despite that, or if he just becomes another operator of the Machine.
*In a deposition given during their divorce Turner's ex-wife leveled charges that Turner was a bisexual and that he had several extramarital affairs with both men and women. During the run-up to the election, when local Conservative Dave Wilson released, to the media, copies of that deposition, Turner's campaign produced a notarized letter from his ex-wife recanting that testimony in full. There were also rumors that Mayor Parker was withholding her endorsement of Turner until the latter "came out" publicly. Many people feel that she ultimately dropped that demand and endorsed anyway because Turner's internal polling was showing King with a lead.
Only Sylvester Turner, his ex-wife and closest circle of friends know the real truth, and they're obviously not interested in talking about it.
