Finally, tomorrow, our long local nightmare will come to an end, we'll get our televisions and radios back (sort of) and we'll know who the run-off candidates are for most local races. Yes, there will still be ads from those left standing but, in the mayoral race anyway, it will be coming from two people instead of 4 or 5.
As the action unfolds tomorrow evening here are a couple of key points to watch out for, if you pay attention to these, you should have a pretty good idea how things are going to turnout.
1. Bill King and the "No" vote on HER Ordinance should start out with early leads.
Republicans early vote with more frequency than Democrats, this is a fairly standard occurrence. Because of this I think King might actually start off in the lead. I expect Turner, who has an effective GOTV organization, to pass him fairly quickly. The question is going to be whether or not Garcia's GOTV work is sufficient to move him past as well.
HER Ordinance should start off with a sizable lead that gets whittled down as the night goes on. I've already said that I think it barely passes because its supporters have done a better job fixating on the "no men in women's restrooms" stuff from the opposition than they have the more substantive problems with the ordinance.
Whether we like it or not municipal elections, despite what you typically hear, are predominantly low-information voter driven. There's a lot of Name ID and "well I heard or read it somewhere" that goes into the thought process behind ballots. Even people who considered themselves "clued in" don't pay much attention. How else do you explain Mayor Parker, who has had a horrible last term, still ranking high in popularity polls?
2. Weather.
I don't think I can overstate this enough. Tomorrow is supposed to be beautiful. Partly Cloudy with a high of 78 and (relatively) comfortable humidity. This bodes well for turnout on election day, which plays in Garcia's favor.
About the worst thing that can happen, for some, is rain on an election day. It, more than anything else, suppresses turnout as people take a look outside and say "forget it" stay in and don't venture to the polls.
3. Problems at certain polling locations.
There will be these, as people head to the wrong precincts or don't have proper identification. There will be cries of voter suppression and racism which the media will dutifully cover. On some matters, if the vote is close enough, expect these to be mentioned in a lawsuit should certain items not fall the way the ruling class would like to see them go.
We are currently in the middle of a program to destroy any and all confidence in the voting system. First it was attacks on paper ballots, then the voting machines, now it's voter suppression as people try and convince us that our democracy is not only biased, but horribly rigged. They will say this despite the fact that, in Houston, they control the levers of power.
4. Bad Predictions.
There are going to be a lot of these. The local media, needing to work overtime to find local "experts" to provide analysis will parade out a few political bloggers who will make some sage sounding comments, half of which are 100% wrong. The fact is no-one really knows how this thing is going to go. With that said, here are my bad predictions on what I think we're going to see tomorrow when all is said and done.
Houston Mayor:
Sylvester Turner: 34%
Bill King: 21%
Adrian Garcia: 20%
Chris Bell: 9%
Ben Hall: 6%
Stephen Costello: 6%
Other: 4%
Houston Controller:
Carroll Robinson: 31%
Bill Frazar: 29%
Jew Don Boney: 15%
Chris Brown: 12%
Other: 13%
HER Ordinance:
Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 49%
Houston City Council:
I'm making no call on the City Council races other than to say I think all of the incumbents win. In the open-seat races it's all about name ID and who's done the best job in that respect.
County Bonds:
I predict that all of the bonds pass with around 60% support. The "Parks" bond will have the lowest support because there has been some press emerge regarding it's vague nature but it will still pass.
That's all I've got, and I'm sure that it's all going to be 100% wrong. But, as they say: Predictions are for fools so consider the source.
If you haven't gone out and voted yet, do so tomorrow. I think, for Houston, this is a pretty vital election.
