Tuesday, November 03, 2015

Houston Area Leadership Vacuum: 2015 Election - Some quick thoughts.

Results can be found here

As I'm writing this around 65% of the results are pretty clear. All percentages below are the numbers at 65% reporting.

1. Houston Mayoral Race: There will be a runoff between Sylvester Turner (32.20%) and Bill King (25.89%). Adrian Garcia (15.58%), Ben Hall (9.62%) and Chris Bell (7.22%) have meaningful blocs of supporters who will determine the outcome.  If Hall and Garcia break toward King (a possibility) then Turner has no chance. As it is this is another chance for Turner to prove whether or not he can expand his appeal beyond his base.

As a side note: A LOT of candidates worse than I expected. Clearly the attacks on Garcia damaged his chances, and Ben Hall, while never a serious challenger, shed a lot of social conservatives to King. Turner was about where I thought he would be (and I think he might be pretty close to capped here) while Bell did slightly worse.

Marty McVey is hovering around .54% which, in a normal world, would make him rethink future runs. I've a feeling he's got a little Chris Bell in him and we'll see both of them trying (and failing) to win a race somewhere down the road.

2. HER Ordinance: In the end, it wasn't close. (61.14% Against 38.86% For) This led Mayor Annise Parker, and other HER Ordinance supporters to angrily declare that most of Houston was (I'm paraphrasing) a group of hate-filled backwater no-good, awful, horrible mouth-breathing people who don't like the gays.  What Houston needed was leadership, what Parker provided was a three-year old's temper tantrum.  The City cannot get rid of her fast enough.

Going forward however there are going to need to be some clearer heads than those possessed by the angry set to try and craft a new ERO, one that's better written and takes into consideration the wants and needs of all communities, not just the one favored by Parker and friends. As a long-time GLBT activist, Parker certainly deserves a seat at the table, what she has proven is that she is incapable of occupying the head seat.

One final note: I said this on Twitter but it bears repeating. Parker angrily reacted to the results and called a lot of people a lot of names. It should be noted that many of the people who voted against HER Ordinance (including those who she called names) voted for her 3 times for Mayor, despite her being openly gay. Perhaps it's time for supporters to realize that the problem, for most, was not minority rights themselves but this horribly crafted ordinance?  Once HER Ordinance supporters can get to that point, then we can move forward. Until then no progress will be made.

3. Other races:

 - Houston Controller: There will be a run-off between Bill Frazar and Chris Brown. I expect to see Frazar and King pool resources.

 - Term limits passed, so whoever wins will (likely) serve 2 4-year terms.

 - No real big surprises in City Council races, but some incumbents will face run-offs.

 - All of the County Bonds passed and, as I predicted, the parks bond had the lowest percentage of favorable votes at around 60%

 - All of the State-wide propositions passed easily.

 - The run-offs will likely be either December 5th or December 12th, so there's still a little more than a month to go.



One final note: The under vote for HER Ordinance was higher than the under vote for Mayor (although it was close). This suggests that the media narrative about HER Ordinance driving the vote was a little overblown.