On Tuesday, the voters of Houston will head to the polls to determine (probably) who will be the top 2 candidates to face-off in a run-off for Houston Mayor. Over the past few months I've undertaken a mock handicapping exercise giving my opinion on where the candidates stand in relation to the others. I've decided to complete their odds in the manner of a Las Vegas sports book.
So, without further ado......
1. Sylvester Turner (1/5) - I still see Turner as a shoo-in for the 1st run-off spot. It seems that most of the other candidates in the race do as well. No one has seriously attacked him, outside of a few fringe conservative groups, and he's done nothing silly to jeopardize his chances. Barring a complete and total bombshell (and maybe even then) I think Turner has one spot sewn up.
2. (tie) Bill King and Adrian Garcia (5/1) - The conventional wisdom is that the conservative vote is coalescing around King, and that the attacks against Garcia have started to sting. This is evidenced in the fact that Garcia is starting to spend a bunch of money trying to blunt these attacks. While Garcia's campaign is putting on a brave face poll results are saying that they need to be worried. Add to that early voting numbers that show high turnouts where King is supposed to do well, and you might not be surprised to find that local bicyclist, and Democratic political analyst Bob Stein, has gone on record saying King will be in the run-off in his opinion.
There are a couple of reasons that make me not as sure:
1. Republicans typically vote early at a higher rate than Democrats: While the early vote numbers look good for King, the real story will be told on election day.
2. Local election polling is sometimes.....meh. We'll see. Houston is a majority Democratic city and while the elections are ostensibly non-partisan that really only affects the Republican vote. Most times Republicans in Houston choose the moderate looking Democrat (Bill White) over a lesser Republican Candidate (Orlando Sanchez) will they rally behind a stronger candidate in King?
3. Everyone else (1000/1) - I just don't see anyone else challenging here. While Ben Hall and Stephen Costello have spent money, I think voters are ultimately going to break for other candidates. Chris Bell is the scolding uncle that everyone tolerates, but no one likes and Marty McVey has proven himself to be not ready for the big stage.
I think we're now down to a 3 candidate race. So, cue the bugler and place your bets.
