Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Houston Area Leadership Vacuum: Endorsements Make for Odd Bedfellows (Or do they?)

Two bits of endorsement news that might strike observers as odd dropped while I've been dealing with real life issues.

First:  Costello endorses Turner for Houston Mayor. Rebecca Elliott, Chron.com

The first reaction to this was that it somehow proved Turner was the more "conservative"* candidate than King.  I disagree with that because I think Costello is endorsing Turner for more selfish reasons.

It all boils down to the morass that has become Rebuild Houston. This program was Costello's brain-child, it was designed as a give-back to his friends, supporters and donors who stand to profit greatly from it and he desperately wants to see it survive.

In the run-up to the general election Turner stated that he wanted to see Rebuild Houston continue, King said he wanted to eliminate it and fund flood and other improvements with bonds.  Costello views Rebuild Houston as his legacy, and also hopes to generate business from it.  It's that simple.


Second: Chris Bell endorses Bill King

I'm sure we're not far away from the reaction stating that this proves Bill King is a liberal, but again I disagree and think the simple answer is the best.  Bill King promised Chris Bell that he would work to widen Brays Bayou and make improvements to Bell's Meyerland neighborhood while Turner would not guarantee a focus on what is, essentially, a well-to-do, primarily Caucasian neighborhood. This doesn't tie with Turner's "Two Houston's" narrative and Bell wants to make sure his neighborhood remains a spending priority. 

All politics is local after all.

Perhaps more importantly....

Adrian Garcia endorses Turner. KHOU

And....

Most of Garcia's leadership team (and big donors) support Bill King

What this means for the actual vote I'm not sure. But I do think that it shows the relative weakness that some noticed for Garcia on election day.  The overriding story arc might be that Garcia has gone from rising Texas Democrat star, to also ran with no meaningful base of support.

This could be an interesting data point to keep an eye on when Garcia eventually files for whatever office he decides to run for next. 

This is also problematic for Turner as it reinforces the belief that he has difficulties expanding his voting base.  Garcia endorsing is one thing, but the money and organizers siding with King probably means that few votes swing Turner's way. 

Even worse for Turner, Parker's Folly has not gone away and the anti-ordinance crowd are going to run TV ads linking him to a revival.  It is rumored that Parker is going to endorse Turner in the near future, he might want to step up and discourage that as it might motivate the wrong base.

The run-off is December 12th, right now I give King the slight edge.  Were I handicapping I'd lay the odds as follows:

Bill King  (-130)
Sylvester Turner (+120)

I keep the Vig if you want to make that bet.



























































*Honestly, we're at the point where the term "conservative" has the same political worth as RINO. They've both devolved into meaningless terms and should be treated thusly.  I prefer Libertarian, Corporatist, Theist and (worst of all) Progressive these days to the traditional Conservative/Liberal labels.

Of course, as in most cases most people are a combination of all four whether they admit it or not.