On the heels of Sunday's 38-13 shellacking by the Rams Texans' fans can be forgiving for feeling a little put-upon right about now. This team, hyped by Houston's Rah! Rah! Sports media as a Super Bowl contender at the beginning of the year has failed to live up to many fans expectations and offensive play, particularly at the quarterback position, has been abysmal. Add to that the fact that Matt Schaub's injury has led to a outpouring of scorn from both Texans players, local and National media are portraying them as the worst people in the world....ever, and you might be forgiven for feeling that you've been handed a crap sandwich and been asked to eat it with a smile.
Instead of dumping on the whole for the actions of the few (unlike the Chron staffers, I don't have any hate for normal Houstonians or (seemingly) a charge to insult them at every turn) let's take a minute and look at the Texans team, and the media coverage surrounding it, holistically. Here are the facts. This team has never been either as good as the local media has portrayed them or as bad as they seem right now. What they are, have been, is mediocre, a fringe playoff team that took advantage of some downturns and beneficial scheduling to seem better than they are.
1 - 2012 was Fool's Gold. - We all remember 11-1. The joy and optimism that was in the air before the reality check that was the New England Patriots? The problem is that the Texans ran up that record against fairly easy opposition. Yes, they beat Baltimore and Indianapolis in that run, but that was before Baltimore figured out that Cam Cameron doesn't belong as an NFL coordinator and before Andrew Luck really got it going at the end of the year. Had the Texans played Denver at any other time than when they did, the result would have been different. The fact is, any 'elite' team that the Texans played in 2012 beat the dog mess out of them.
2 - The "best" team was probably fielded in 2011 - That was the year the Texans finished 10-6 and might have made the AFC Championship game until Schaub got hurt. Now the problem, or one of the problems, is that post-injury Schaub is a statue of a QB, the offensive line has been gutted, and the defensive backfield isn't anywhere near what it was back then. Rick Smith has been horrible managing the salary cap and the team has diminished greatly since this high-point.
3 - This year's Texans are what we've seen - It's time to put away the hype and hyperbole surrounding Ed Reed, the offensive line and Bulls on Parade. This Texans team is flawed, and it doesn't appear that the coaching staff has any answers how to fix it. Ed Reed is a shell of his former self, the Texans overpaid for damaged goods. The offensive line has an entire right side that shouldn't be starting in the NFL. And the defense has one player (JJ Watt) who's playing up to expectations.
4 - The good(sorta) news, the schedule gets (somewhat) easier from here - When I picked the Texans to go 9-7 this year in a work pool (making the playoffs as a wildcard) I predicted, at this point in the schedule, that they would be 2-4. Unfortunately, I also predicted the upcoming Kansas City game would be a win so that's problematic. As a matter of fact, looking forward I only see 5 wins remaining. You can't assume a win over Indianapolis under any scenario right now, New England is strong, and it's possible that Denver might beat you worse than they beat Jacksonville considering they'll take the Texans more seriously. 7-9 could be the ceiling for this team. However, 4-5 losses in a row doesn't seem to be in the offering so there's that.
5 - This year's team has reverted to the mean - I realize that this post has been a lot of gloom-and-doom and for that I apologize but it's the truth. However, part of coming to grips with the situation is having a clear understanding of it. You're not getting that clear picture from the local media, who are continuing to insist that this team is loaded with talent and is just underperforming. It's high time the Texans fan base took a breath and started looking at the situation as it is, not as you're being told it is by a group of media who don't like you all that much in the first place.
Solutions? Well, for one, the Texans could stick with the status quo, draft a QB in next year's draft to groom as Schaub's replacement. This would mean keeping an even keel and trusting in Kubiak & Smith to fix what they've broken. Given Bob McNair's disposition this would have to be the favorite in the clubhouse. Were I the Texans owner however I think I'd be tempted to end this experiment sooner rather than later. Should the Texans lose the Kansas City game (and have a record of 2-5) I'd fire Kubiak, replace him with Wade Phillips on an interim basis and begin the search for my next head coach now. I'd also fire Rick Smith, who's done a terrible job managing the salary cap, and replace him with someone who has a working relationship with the coach of my dreams. Who would I look to long term? Bill Cowher for one, John Gruden, possibly even Nick Saban (who we all know is eyeing the NFL next, NOT the UT-Austin job). One thing I would NOT do is let Kubiak and Co. anywhere near the decision making process for the next Texans QB. They've already whiffed on that twice, I see no reason to give them another cut.
One thing to remember, all is not lost long-term. Look at Indianapolis and Kansas City as proof of that. In today's NFL there are several examples of teams turning from losers to winners in one or two seasons. Every year (this is Charile Pallilo's favorite stat) there is a team that rebounds from 6-10 or worse to go 10-6 or better. The Texans haven't done this because Kubiak and Co. are too conservative, too risk-averse. For the Texans to get where they (and their fans) want to be they need to start taking some risks.
The sooner the better, because time has run out on this version of the team.
