Monday, October 14, 2013

College Football Predictions (Week 7) The (ugly) Results

should really start putting some time into this, because I'm taking a whipping picking all of these upsets.

Last week saw a return to form, as I picked a few upsets and some favorites I thought were sure things.....then they weren't. To recap, I went a paltry 5-5 straight up and a horrible 4-6 ATS meaning that, if you bet against me, you did well (again). For the season that means I'm 64-25 SO and 40-47-1 ATS. Of course, these picks cost you exactly what you paid for them and what the heck are you doing taking betting advice from a 40 yr old, out-of-shape, accountant in the first place?


To be honest, I pick games because I think it's fun. If nothing else this reminds me that I don't know much about sports betting, which keeps me away from the actual sports books which saves me money. Still, on my trip to Vegas I'll still lay down a little, just less than I thought I would considering how much trouble I'm having getting a read on teams.

Now, as usual, here are your take-aways from the week that was:


1 - Texas Oh Texas. - Remember what I said last week about a team coming in too confident to a rivalry game? I'm unsure what happened to OU's offense, but they made UT-Austin's sub-par defensive unit look like world beaters.

2 - UGA limping - I really thought Georgia would have enough to beat Mizzou. That said I probably, like many, underrated this year's version of the Tigers based on what I saw last year. Too bad for them that Franklin is now out of the season. I would imagine they had designs on the SEC championship game with him. Still, the Tigers are a good team.

3 - The fallacy of early rankings - Stanford? Oh Stanford? This is what I mean when I say 1st half of the season rankings are, for the most part, ridiculous.

4 - Rice, 3-0 in C-USA - I told you they were good enough to make a run at the conference title.

5 - Houston, 5-0 - However, I'll be honest here, after the off-season mess I didn't see this coming.

6 - Manziel the Magnificent - Whether or not you think his skill-set will translate to the NFL (I don't) there's no denying that Johnny Football is an amazing college QB. Now, if the Aggies only had a defense.

7 - 'Bama back to looking like 'Bama - It was only a matter of time before that team started jelling.

8 - The Big Twen is terrible this year - Baylor is (arguably) the best team and they didn't look good against a horrible K-State team.

9 - Is this the year Clemson doesn't trip over itself? - They've been on danger alert, but next week's game against Florida St is going to be HUGE


And finally......


10 - Dammit Blue! - Brady Hoke is 100% to blame for the Penn State loss. If you play not to lose you won't win. Hoke had them playing not to lose. Hopefully the team learns from this and gets better. That said, I'm not a believer in the ability of Devin Gardner to play championship football.


Top 5: (as of now)

1. Alabama - Still the best until beaten.
2. Oregon - Did nothing to lose their position
3. Clemson - Next week is huge.
4. Florida St. - Ditto.
5. Ohio St. - By default.

Bottom 5:

1. Eastern Michigan. - Ron English is the worst coach in America.
2. Akron - The Terry Bowden project is a failure.
3. Florida Atlantic - Remember when they had hope for the future?
4. Florida International - Ditto.
5. Southern Miss - Never should have fired Jeff Bower.

Big game next week: Clemson/Florida St.

Off the radar: UCLA at Stanford.

Way off the radar: USC at Notre Dame