Certainly, that is the tack taken by Jay Root and the editors at John Thornton's expirement in advocacy journalism. It also seems to be the view of one Cal Jillison, who has never met a poll marginally favorable to a liberal candidate that he didn't like.
Poll: Abbott leads Davis by 8 points. Jay Root, Texas Tribune
Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University, said he found the gender gap “intriguing.” Given the fact that white Texans make up two-thirds of the electorate and routinely give 70 percent or more of their votes to Republicans, Davis needs to peel off white suburban women from Abbott if she has any hope of winning. He said Democrats in the last several elections have generally lost statewide races by 12 to 16 percentage points in Texas, so she’s ahead of the game at this point.
Jillison does go on to say that the number of undecided voters "is a problem" but doesn't really capture the issues with reading too much into these results.
For one, it's way early to be paying too much attention to the Governor's race. Results, right now, are nothing more than confirmation of partisan identity. If you were to tell me that the Republicans have an 8-10% structural advantage in Texas I would tend to agree. That is pretty much all this poll confirms.
Second, the undecided number is huge (50% of responders) What this doesn't mean is that 50% of the people don't know for whom they will vote for Texas Governor. I would argue that, in many cases, poll respondents have little desire to give an answer this early in the race, lest they appear to be partisan tools incapable of individual thought. In recent races, the "swing vote" in Texas hasn't been anywhere near 50%. To think that, because of one filibuster supporting an issue that a majority of Texans oppose, Davis has somehow flipped the script in this race is pretty presumptuous. At this point, if anything, I think these results are positive for the Abbott campaign and disturbing for the Davis gang.
Finally, the reason the Davis camp should be worried is that, currently, she has very little statewide name ID. For as much fawning media coverage that she received by the Tribune and other TLSPM outlets Davis still has the problem that most Texans don't care. Texas' largest major city daily is only subscribed to by less than 10% of the population in its Metro area. For all of the page-hits that the Trib likes to tout, the reality is they are the epitome of an Austin-centric, inside-baseball newspaper site. Outside of my circle of politically active friends, I've not come across one person who even knows the Trib exists.
The important thing to note is that this article was not intended to be a primer on the upcoming race for Texas Governor, it was intended to be a fundraiser for the Wendy Davis campaign....
“How does Davis break even with Abbott among the 50 percent who don’t know, when he’s got $22 million and she’s got $1 million?” Jillson said. “The odds are pretty long.”
The message is pretty clear.
*Kidding on the abortion Barbie stuff, calm down Democrats.
