Last weekend I joined a few political-types in Houston for some beers and discussions regarding things that we political blogger-types find interesting. The conversation ran from TIRZ, to the Danger Train to the proposed Post Oak BRT and across a whole host of issues. One of the issues that stuck with me was what, if any role, Twitter could play in the upcoming Houston Municipal Elections.
To start off I thought I'd take a look at the popularity/(success?) of the accounts for all of the Mayoral hopefuls. Then I thought I'd compare them to the account of the sitting Mayor. Finally, I've got just a few thoughts to add on at the end.
Without further ado, below are the Twitter accounts for the seven hopefuls for Houston Mayor (listed in order of followers): [as of 06/17/2015 8 PM in the evening]
Adrian Garcia
Followers: 11.5K
Following: 6219
Sylvester Turner
Followers: 5040
Following: 590
Steve Costello
Followers: 1940
Following: 853
Bill King
Followers: 1876
Following: 969
Marty McVey
Followers: 1688
Following: 1998
Ben Hall (includes BenHallForAll followers)
Followers: 1346
Following: 395
Chris Bell
Followers: 692
Following: 687
Mayor Annise Parker
Followers: 47.5K
Following: 2124
Thoughts: Based on these numbers I think only a few broad generalizations can be made from Twitter activity. I'm going to lay those out as follows.
1. Followers on Twitter do not necessarily mean votes. Although having few followers probably entails trouble getting votes.
Usually, on Twitter and other social media sites, people tend to follow those with whom they agree politically or, more specifically, who they support. That Ben Hall and Chris Bell have such low follower counts typically means that there aren't people interested enough in their campaigns to invest space on their timeline.
2. There's little chance this is how the election will play out.
When you review the content on the Twitter accounts themselves you are clearly dealing with two different dynamics. Ironically, the account with the most followers belongs to one of the candidates with the weaker set of qualifications. It also has the least relevant content. Adrian Garcia's account is more of a "hey look at me" set of selfies and other items that people like to view on Twitter. To his credit, he's been very consistent and good in developing a following. He also got a bump from being the Harris County Sheriff that the other candidates did not.
That said, I'm not sure there's anyone who is viewing this election seriously who believes that Garcia has a strong shot to be much of a contender for the run-off.
3. Some candidates are working at this, others aren't.
If you wonder why, despite over a decade in the public eye, Chris Bell has few followers, you only need to take a quick peek under the hood at his timeline. If someone is working the twitters for him, they need to be replaced. His is a timeline full of soundbytes and platitudes that are, honestly, difficult to read.
Of all of the candidates I think Sylvester Turner and Bill King are doing some of the best work on Twitter. Both are filled with links, images, video and a host of information relating to the campaign and issues affecting the City of Houston. Whoever is working on their social media should take a bow.
4. Finally, and most importantly, the Twitter campaigns give a window into the campaigns themselves, which I think does, moreso than raw followers, tell us a little bit about who is where in the pack.
I think two favorites are emerging in this race. Turner and King, and the professionalism of their account content and campaigns as a whole reflect this.
Garcia is leading in follower count, but has a problem of a horrible record as Harris County Sheriff. His focus on glib content seems to recognize that his campaign team understands this, but they don't have much of a plan to overcome it other than "demographics is destiny".
Costello is much the same way. His early plan seemed to be to run on his familiarity with Houston and experience. Unfortunately, for him, the recent Supreme Court decision on ReBuild Houston and the Memorial Day flooding knocks all of that into a cocked hat. Much like Garcia he seems to be treading water right now hoping everything blows over within a couple of news cycles.
McVey is well....he's Marty McVey. He's clearly hoping to catch the Bill White Genie in a bottle minus the federal appointment and political experience. I've felt from the beginning that he's a nice enough guy that is somewhat overreaching in his first real shot at a political position. His name ID is nonexistent and some of his positions feel more developed in the "me too" school of political thought than original solutions for Texas.
Ben Hall is running against the ghost of Ben Hall. His campaign for Mayor in 2013 was horrible to the point that I can't see a path to victory this time around. I hear rumors that he has a big announcement in the offing but, if it's what I hear it is I think it will do him more harm than help with some (although not all) of the voters he's courting.
Chris Bell's problem is simple. There are a lot of people on the left who genuinely like Chris Bell the person. The problem is they don't like Chris Bell the politician all that much. And certainly not more than they like other people. When you add to this that Bell is a horrible campaigner who has a very, very soft public persona and he's the definition of a perennial candidate. He reminds me of someone who just runs a lot hoping that eventually something will stick. Like a progressive version of Roy Morales. (Although things seemed to work out OK for him)
In summary (I'd say 'in short' but it's too late for that) I think the two top-tier candidates in this race don't necessarily have the most Twitter followers, but they DO have the most interesting campaigns so far.
In separate post I'm going to discuss the nuts and bolts of each campaign, with a heavy focus on both Sylvester Turner and Bill King. The reason for this is because I think the two of them are doing the best job so far.
Oh, and in case you're wondering, my Twitter account sucks. So I'm by no means an expert.
