Sunday, September 30, 2012

Reported vs. Reality (College Football Edition)

If you didn't watch any college football yesterday and instead relied on the media to tell you what happened you're probably walking around with a few fallacies in your head this morning.  Let's talk for a minute about what really happened yesterday:


Myth: The Houston Cougars fixed a lot of problems in a 35-14 win over Rice.
Reality: No, they really didn't.  The loss by the Owls of QB McHarge destroyed any chance the Owls had of moving the ball. Freshman QB Driphus Jackson couldn't throw the ball, so UH was allowed to pack 8 or 9 in the box and just come after him.  Yes, it was a win, but it was a win against a team that's more similar to a FCS team in terms of structure and talent than a rel FBS team with aspirations for even a .500 record. Winning this game only means that the Coogs ceiling this year is 4 wins, instead of the 1 win (Tulane) that it would have been had they lost here. If Rice would have been able to play a healthy McHarge I think the results would have been a lot different.

Myth: That Longhorn "shine" is back
Reality: Probably not. The 'Horns will certainly go to a bowl, and it might even be a January bowl.  As a matter of fact, they might even beat West Virginia (a team with no defense to speak of) next week and be in the cat-bird seat for a B(C)S bowl.  I have one big problem with Texas however.  For all of their supposed great play and for all of their talent they still needed a blown call by the officials at the end of the game to eek out a 41-36 win over a team that got blown out by a fairly bad Arizona unit.  The bigger problem, for Big XII teams, is that the conference doesn't seem to be all that good this year.  K-State is fairly salty it appears, and WV is going to be exciting, but there's no one in the conference who seems to be a true contender for the top slot in the land.  The SEC has Alabama, the Pac-12 Oregon, the ACC has Florida St.  the B1G and Big XII have.......

Myth: aTm can win their conference.
Reality: Uh...No. They can't.  This is going to be the age of irrational exuberance in College Station as fans are going to be borderline giddy coming off a 58-10 thrashing of Arkansas.  This would only mean something if this were the Bobby Petrino led Hogs and not the current Arkansas team led by the modern day Dana Dimel.  Yes, Arkansas still has talent but it's very clear that the coaches have no clue what to do with it, and the players are playing something akin to sandlot football.  Good first win for aTm but it came against a team that's not even trying right now.  With this win they might make a bowl.  It will be played in December.

Myth: At this point in the season the polls start to reflect reality
Reality: No, they don't.  Too many voters mail it in, or are still voting by what they think rather than what they see on the field. 1-3 is OK, but after that it really starts to break down.  LSU is a team that could barely beat Towson, at home. Georgia has not looked good, and neither has S. Carolina, all three teams are getting bumps because of their conference.  TCU is way low, as is Louisville. The best one-loss team in the land is not USC it's Clemson.  Since the B(C)S is tied to polls (although not the AP poll) these things still matter.  It's ridiculous and it's improperly punishing some really good teams.