Thanks, I guess, to Microsoft, most of Iowa 2016 was over before it got too late last night. By 9:30 PM CST we knew that Cruz was going to win, Trump was having a bad night and Rubio and Carson out-performed expectations. What we don't know, at 10:30, when I tuned out and got ready for bed (and work tomorrow) but we know now (5 AM, at the time of this writing) is that Hillary beat the angry socialist (barely) and, barring indictment, probably laid clear her path to the Democratic nomination.
For all intents and purposes however, we're down to five, flawed, candidates from which we're going to choose who is the next President of the United States. If nothing else, last night in the snow, caucuses and remarkably consistent coin flips, Iowa served to focus the race and identify the main contenders.
On the Democratic side you have coin-flip Clinton and her e-mail servers. A woman with so much baggage she has to charter a 2nd plane just to carry it around. Despite having a likeability ranking somewhere below herpes, Democrats continue to go into the ballot-booth, and happily pull the lever for her. They have to be doing this while holding their noses. Hillary has none of the charisma and charm of Bill, lacks his ability to compromise and is seemingly transforming into a easily-confused, technology-incompetent, old woman right before our eyes. Not a sweet old woman but an angry old lady with a vicious mean-streak and temper.
Then you have Bernie Sanders, possibly the perfect candidate for the Millennial generation, physically unkempt, financially illiterate and perpetually angry about.....well he's not sure but he's damn sure angry about it. He's also considering suing Microsoft because...vote rigging or something. It's been neither confirmed, or denied, by the Sanders campaign that all of his future stops will include free tin-foil hats for himself and attendees. Feel the Bern and all of that.
For Republicans the choice is a little better. At least they have a couple of top-tier candidates who aren't either under investigation or barking at the walls.
Ted Cruz had a good night. By all accounts he had an excellent plan and ground game in a State that's historically required the same. The biggest deal, to me, is that Cruz came out AGAINST corn subsidies, was vehemently opposed by the Iowa Governor for that stance, and still won. Yes, Cruz can come off as abrasive, and the label of "Cruz the Opportunist" is probably 100% accurate, but the guy can campaign and he's on the correct side on several issues. One thing: Expect the Cruz/Birther stories to be Legion leading up to the New Hampshire primary. Trump is going to hit that hard.
Speaking of The Donald. I can't see him recovering from this blow. After spending the entire run-up to Iowa talking about how he's going to win so much you might get bored of him winning Mr. Trump's campaign lost. Not only did it lose, it almost slid to 3rd. I thought as much might happen, and have said so for weeks now. He had a lot of support in the person of people who don't historically vote. I've only seen one candidate get those people out of their houses and to the caucuses and primaries. Unfortunately, for Trump, he doesn't have either the ability to campaign, or the natural voting bloc that Obama had 8 & 4 years ago.
Perhaps the best night of all was had by Marco Rubio. Yes, he came in 3rd, in a race where he was expected to come in 3rd, but his vote percentage was higher than expected and he didn't see the emergence of Jeb? Christie, Kasich or Santorum as a viable option-candidate. This is huge because it now gives supporters of the lower-tier candidates a rallying point that I presume most are going to acquiesce around. The possible exception to this are the hard-core Paul supporters, who will probably sit this election out when their man eventually chucks it in.
Already Martin O'Malley and Mike Huckabee have suspended their campaigns in light of yesterday's results. I've a feeling we'll see a couple more suspensions today. I think Christie and Kasich are the two obvious candidates. Jeb? will hang in at least through New Hampshire, and maybe through to South Carolina as he desperately tries to kick-start a wheezing campaign that no-one, except a few in the money class, really has any interest in supporting. Fiorina might as well stay in, but I think she jettison's things after New Hampshire. Paul will stay in longer than he should, as will Carson, but I don't see either of them staying active much past Texas.
After that it turns into a 3-man slug-fest for the Republican nomination.
At this point I'd have to say that Rubio v. Clinton feels like the most probable outcome.
Keeping in mind this huge caveat: We still have a long way to go.
