If you listen to the media, the GOP should just close up shop now. Given that Donald trump is leading the nomination process, after less than a 10th of the delegates have been awarded, and no one can seemingly put a dent in Mr. Trumps armor, it's just time for them to throw in the towel and let the much more reasonable Democrats run things.
If you listen to the media you could be forgiven for thinking this is what's going on. If you look at the hard numbers (removing the Democratic super-delegates [more on them later]) you'd quickly realize that the problems both parties are currently experiencing are almost identical.
Let me explain.
Currently, the Grand Old Party is struggling to come to terms with the reality that fully 30-40% of it's party members lack basic literacy in civics. They don't understand how it is that laws get passed, and why it's difficult to accomplish anything if you do not control all of the three branches in the American government. (And, even then, it's not a given. [Ask Obama how his policy priorities, outside of ObamaCare, fared while the Dems held both houses of Congress and the White House]). This is why the government shut-down never really had a chance, once the American people sided with the Democrats, it's why Ted Cruz meaningless "repeal and replace" bills over Obamacare are just more grandstanding (Veto anyone?) and it's why things are currently stuck (stalled really) in D.C. currently.
To "remake" the country in the way they see fit the GOP needs to win elections, at all levels. While it's true that they would have a great chance of accomplishing this if they held the Executive branch of government, the lack of a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate would be the hedge against getting much done even then.
The Democratic Party is not having to really face the reality that 30-40% of it's party members lack basic financial literacy because of two reasons. First, the party did a good job clearing the field of meaningful competition for Hillary Clinton. Because of this there is only one guide post for those party members who remain tenuously connected to reality to lash their ships. Whether for good or for ill that post is Her Highness Hillary Rodham Clinton, possibly the most corrupt, entitled candidate to ever stand for a major party nomination in recent history.
Second, the Demcrats, for all of their hiding behind democracy and voter's rights, have possibly the most undemocratic primary process in the free, Western world. Hillary's current delegate lead of 502 to 70 is largely a construct of the Party's anti-Democratic SuperDelegate system which, in reality, pushes the nomination toward the candidate who best plays ball with the Democratic Party elite. Eight years ago that was Barack Obama, this year it's Hillary Clinton. (Note: The Republicans have "super" delegates as well but they are far less in number, and much more strongly committed to vote the way of their state's primary voters).
If all of this sounds a little bit convenient and "establishment" friendly to you, you're right.
What this has really done is kept the absolute top of the Democratic Party (Nationally) lily white while it's voter mix is increasingly diverse. Ironically, the masses who continue to vote for this confab of upper-crust, predominantly Caucasian set of Democrats provide the role of useful idiot by continuing to gain ground, and media time, calling the GOP a bunch of racists. To be fair, the GOP aides in allowing this more often than not be acting tone-deaf on racial issues, as well as having possibly the worst urban messaging in recorded history. (Possibly Marie Antoinette was worse, but not by much).
Sadly, for the GOP, during this election cycle it's not only the messaging that's off, but their entire function as a party. They've lost control of their 30-40% of angry, low-information voters and (in part to a split-ticket and in part due to inconsistent messaging) are currently in danger of nominating, to represent them on the Presidential ballot, a man who has spent his life as a member of the opposing party. A man who has, at the minimum, understood that the low-information voter on the right is enthralled by anti-immigrant rhetoric, protectionist trade language and a hearty dislike of anything remotely politically correct and has channeled that. Anger being a powerful, albeit historically temporary, motivator.
That Trump has done this and is considered (by some) to be the favorite to win the GOP Presidential nomination while Sanders, who has done the same thing exactly instead of choice of targets (the 1% vs. immigrants) is not speaks more about the job the party did pre-election than anything it says about the candidates or their electorate.
The Democrats and the Republicans have both spent most of the last 20 years catering to an angry sub-set of their electoral base. In many, not all, but many, cases those angry people also lack the basic knowledge to succeed in modern times. This is why demagogues succeed, because it's easier to blame someone else for your faults than to blame yourself.
Which brings us back to the GOP.
IF Trump wins the nomination and IF, as many (including myself) predict, the party suffers down-ballot because of the same, you're likely to hear a lot of clap-trap about how the "media" framed things to make the GOP (and by extension conservatives) look bad. This will ignore the fact that the GOP's problems are largely of their own making.
For all of the talk about the 'biased' media the GOP misses the point. The media is biased against ideas, not party. And the replacement media that the GOP has embraced (talk radio, independent Internet news outlets etc.) have been far worse. Ratings hungry talking heads such as Sean Hannity, Laura Ingram, Ann Coulter and Erick Erickson are not the solution, they're the problem. (At least part of it). In Texas the finger should be pointed at Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and his fire-breathing (light on action) sycophants.
A light at the end of the tunnel?
For one, the GOP is having to deal with it's issues and is currently starting to turn it's serious talkers toward educating the angry plurality of voters. This could mean that education rises and GOP low-information voters is on the wane.
The Democrats are putting their heads in the sand. Long-term this could spell trouble for a party who might find themselves fully running against the American system and embracing policies that would diminish the Country over time.
That might play to the base, but independents and moderates would, for a while, be a lost cause.
