Armageddon for the GOP Establishment. Jeremy Carl, National Review Online
The night could have gone worse for the GOP establishment—but I’m not really sure how. Not only did Donald Trump win an overwhelming victory in New Hampshire, but the establishment lane of viable candidates got more crowded than it had been going in. And remember that since the current primary calendar was inaugurated in 1976, no GOP nominee has ever emerged without winning Iowa or New Hampshire.
What Mr. Carl writes would be true, if there existed a GOP "Establishment" as it used to be understood in the 80's and 90's. It's not so true when you look at the party today. During the days of Reagan (and Bush the elder) the GOP "establishment" controlled most of the party apparatus and had a very big hand in selecting the eventual nominee. Think the current Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton's six-coin-flip run in Iowa. Today however the GOP is made up of factions. And winning the nomination is going to depend not on establishment support, as many pundits are claiming, but in corralling the support of enough factions to come out ahead.
In reality, what's called the "establishment" of the GOP are really two factions who typically find their interests aligned. The Corporate Faction and Northeastern Moderates.
In light of this I think it's better to look at the nomination process via who is going to receive support from the various factions, and whether or not that presents them with a path to victory. The way I see it, there are seven major factions currently at work in the Republican Party.
The "Flyover" Faction: These are the Caucasian, mostly poor, mostly pissed off voters that Kevin D. Williamson describes in the White Ghetto. If you have not read this piece of reporting you should, because it's vital to understanding just how strong their support of Trump is. While not wholly confined to Appalachia these people feel that the system of immigration and affirmative action are slanted against them. They are voting on an emotional level.
The Social Tea Party: Not to be mistaken with the people who attended the tea party rallies post bailout, these people are often lumped in with the same but are really a different movement altogether. It's also not fair to call them Evangelicals either. By social I mean "culture" and by culture I mean language and immigration. They count among their members some in the Flyover faction but they are truly a faction apart. Trump draws a lot of support from these people and it includes many in the White Supremacy movement.
The Fiscal Tea Party: These are the people who, at parties, always start off by telling you they're "not Republican, they're conservative" and then devolve from there. They are yuuuuge Ted Cruz supporters and are likely to have something about being "A strict Constitutionalist" somewhere in their social media bio. Ironically, these are also the people who make signs reading "Keep your government hands off my Medicare" at big rallies.
Evangelicals: Another Cruz-Group. The Evangelicals haven't changed much over the years, since the rise of the Moral Majority that is. They are politically active, believe in a theocracy of convenience and almost always vote Republican. They are pro-life, anti-gambling, anti-alcohol, anti-drug legalization and will go to great lengths to tell you that they don't hate the GLBTQP community, but don't want the US to legalize their orientation either.
The Beltway/D.C. Faction: This is K-street. The thought is often, mistakenly, that this is the group that supports business but that is sometimes not true. These groups come from Wall Street, Military Suppliers and other companies who (to be honest) like to take a seat at the government trough. They are widely derided but highly necessary. They want to support Jeb(?) but his candidacy has been so weak that they are shifting between Rubio and Jeb(?) almost interchangeably.
Northeast Moderates: This group is Jeb(?)'s core group of support. Again, they're often referred to as "The Establishment" but that is no longer true. They are old money, a LOT of old money, and they have much influence in the region but their reach is no longer Nationwide. They also have been wavering from Jeb(?) and are looking for a home.
Business: Not to be confused with lobbyists and/or Wall Street. The Business faction is made up of several business sectors and is not as monolithic as people think. The energy sector has different needs than the service sector for example. However, most of this support is currently behind Rubio. As derided as it is in other GOP factions the "Gang of Eight" immigration reform bill would have been a boon to most business groups.
There are other, smaller, factions for sure but the seven above are pretty much the ones that are going to make up the electorate that selects the Republican nominee. The exception to this was in New Hampshire, where Kasich was able to cobble together enough fake-Republican voters to come in 2nd, something he is unlikely to repeat in future states. This is also why I think Donald Trump might not see another win for quite some time.
In Iowa, the results for the GOP tend to skew toward the Evangelical candidate, which gave Cruz the edge. However, the large, Midwestern, influence exerted by the Flyover faction pushed Trump up to a respectable (if not funny) 2nd place finish. As I stated earlier, New Hampshire is a result not likely to be repeated. It's low levels of Evangelical voters, coupled with a large influx of moderate Democratic voters, skewed the results. More important to the health of each candidate's chances will be the results in Dixie.
Due to the rather large prevalence of Tea Party and Evangelical voters, I'm expecting Cruz to start gaining some distance over Trump. And while the Flyovers had some pull in Iowa and (to a lesser extent) New Hampshire, I expect their influence to be muted in the much more economically well-off South. I think Rubio will start doing better as well. Gone will be the Kasich distraction (he'll fall back to last place) and Jeb(?) will be diminished away from his ancestral home in New England. (The Bush Family, in case you are wondering, are NOT Texan)
One last point: Mr. Carl mentions, in his article, that the eventual Republican nominee has either won Iowa or New Hampshire in every election since the modern calendar was adopted in 1976. I think that's an interesting stat that is of diminishing importance. The reason for that is the democratization of the media.
In prior elections engaged voters, of the type that vote in primaries, were limited in information to a few mainstream sources. Most campaign coverage was consumed by opening the morning paper with a bowl of cereal, or watching the network news. That started changing in recent years as cable news rose to prominence, but even with the emergence of Fox News the narratives were still very narrow.
More than the general electorate voter the primary voter is much more likely to consume a large amount of political information. Increasingly, this information is much more varied and (in many cases) much less likely to hide its bias than was the old. This means that many of the old narratives forced by the media, are now countered endlessly through articles, tweets, Facebook posts you name it.
An example of this, this year, would be John Kasich. In prior elections his 2nd place finish would have been reported as the resurrection of Lazarus. He would be instantly branded a contender and pushed forth to South Carolina where pundits would say "he's in with a chance". This year's election however the much-needed context of his 2nd place finish is being discussed. What this means for Kasich is the likelihood that most, not all, voters in the Southern states will see his finish for what it is, an outcome of NH's silly primary/social system, and less a product of his viability.
Next up are Nevada (not all that important) and South Carolina (more important), where I predict the story will be that the "Establishment" is back because Rubio is going to do well in two States that he's always been targeting. Rhetoric to the contrary, I still view this as a three man race between Cruz, Rubio & Trump. I will say now, however, that instead of having Rubio a slight favorite I'm pivoting to the Jr. Senator from Texas as the odds-on favorite.
I also expect Christie, Fiorina** and Carson to exit the race soon. Jeb(?) should exit but family dreams die hard. I doubt he lasts long after S. Carolina.
Odds to win Republican Nomination*:
Cruz: 3/1
Rubio: 7/1
Trump: 15/1
Bush: 100/1
Other: 1000/1
*Note: The odds are NOT a measure of my support of any candidate, just where I think we stand.
**Additional Note: Since I wrote this two days ago both Christie and Fiorina have "suspended" their Presidential campaigns so I was correct about that.
