Well, two weeks later, we do. Two polls in fact, each providing markedly different pictures of the upcoming election.
1. Houston Association of Realtors 2015 Houston Municipal Election Poll.
Mayoral Race:
Turner………………………….19%Garcia…………………………..19%Bell……………………………….10%King………………………………10%Costello………………………….9%Hall…………………………………6%McVey…………………………….1%
HER Ordinance:
Favor.………………………….52%Oppose………………………37%Undecided…………………..10%
The Chron's write-up of the first poll is hidden behind their pay wall here.
2. Houston Realty Business Coalition 2015 Houston Municipal Election Poll
Mayoral Race:
Turner………………………….24%King……………………………..18%Garcia………………………….14%Unsure…………………………13%Bell…….…………………………11%Costello………………………….8%Hall…..…………………………….8%Other………………………………4%
HER Ordinance:
Favor.………………………….31%Oppose……………………….40%Undecided…………………..13%Refuse..………………………..16%
The Chron's write of of the second poll is hidden behind their pay wall here.
These are interesting for a couple of reasons.
First, we are getting opposite results on both who is in line for the 2nd run-off spot and HER Ordinance. This leads me to believe that turnout in various parts of the city will be key to who wins. For example, if turnout in Clear Lake and Kingwood is high enough, then King might come in 2nd. However, if you see greater turnout on the Near East Side, then Garcia will have an advantage. It does seem as if Turner has successfully consolidated the black vote to the degree that he's very likely to be in.
One thing that both polls show is that the split in the "Republican vote" is getting slightly smaller. It's certainly good news for King that Costello has slipped to single digits in both polls. If his campaign can continue to hit on Costello's ties to Rebuild Houston, he should be able to consolidate that lead. It also appears that Ben Hall's support among the right is fading. He always was a one-issue candidate for the conservative vote and, while it took him long enough to do so, it appears that King finally taking a stance against HER Ordinance on technical grounds has swayed some of those socially conservative voters away from Hall in sufficient numbers to buttress King. It also appears that the recent spate of attacks on Garcia are starting to have an effect on his numbers.
As for HER Ordinance, passage or rejection are largely going to depend on turnout. At this point it's difficult to tell if voters are being driven to the Mayoral race by HER Ordinance, or if HER Ordinance is being strongly influenced by Mayoral turnout.
In the "issues" portion of both polls it is telling to note that HER Ordinance rates fairly significantly when ranked as the FIRST issue of importance (14% in the HAR Poll) but falls off considerably when ranked as the SECOND issue (8% in the HAR Poll). This suggests that, for the majority of those opposed, the angst is fairly broad but not all that deep. You're either an anti-HER Ordinance voter or you're really not all that concerned. In the HAR Poll however road and infrastructure issues ranked very high (40%) while city pensions ranked fairly low (13%) despite all of the coverage it has been getting of late.
Before we get to the handicapping, a quick note about the Chron's coverage of both polls.
It's telling, in the story surrounding the HRBC poll, the Chron was quick to point out not only potential bias in the polling, but also that the group has endorsed Bill King. In the HAR poll they only mentioned concerns about "under sampling" of potential minority voters. They also included Democratic strategist Kier Murray (who they did label correctly, to be fair) who gave an endorsement of the HAR Poll, but did not return the favor with a Republican strategist for the 2nd.
It's very clear which poll the Chron would like for you to take seriously, and which one it would like you to dismiss. It should be noted, this is not journalism, it's activism by a newspaper whose editorial positions are increasingly overlapping with their political 'news' coverage. They are reporting, but you do your self a disservice by not understanding that they are doing so much in the same manner as this blog, with an agenda and policy preferences. What it is NOT is neutral reporting and should not be treated as such.
Now, on to the handicapping.
Reminder: This handicapping is my attempt to put a number on the likelihood that any one candidate can be in the two-person run-off. It is not my prediction who will ultimately be elected Mayor, or necessarily my prediction for the run-off. Instead it's just an attempt to try and have some fun figuring out what the heck is going on.
Sylvester Turner (1/5) (Unchanged) - I haven't seen him do anything to suggest that he's not going to make the runoff. He's catered to his natural, unquestioning, constituency which has allowed him to campaign without releasing much in the way of policy. That said, he's starting to feel as if he's capped out, which could be a problem for him after the run-off begins. Finally, there are storm clouds starting to appear that might negatively affect Turner in the run-off.
Adrian Garcia (10/1) (Decreased) - Garcia's biggest problem is that he's starting to feel the pressure from the negative attacks regarding his tenure as Harris County Sheriff. Garcia has never been an accomplished politician so his run is based mostly on feel-good stories. In a time when the news stories surrounding Houston's finances are becoming increasingly dire, being the "happy" candidate doesn't quite fit the mold.
Bill King (15/1) (Increased) - I realize that a move from 100/1 to 15/1 is a huge jump but I think a few big things have happened for King. One, his attacks on Costello appear to have legs. Two, he finally took a position on HER Ordinance which appears to have siphoned off one-note conservatives from Hall. Finally, the news of late has been focused on Houston's financial calamity. All of these are VERY good developments for the King campaign. There are potential clouds on the horizon however.
Stephen Costello (200-1) (Decreased) - The Rebuild Houston stuff is starting to hurt, and his campaign appears to be dropping the ball. The biggest news item in the cycles since the last poll was Costello's expired registration sticker gaffe in his TV ad. That's not a good thing.
Chris Bell (300-1) (Unchanged) - He's still a long-shot candidate with no natural base of support who is starting to throw issue mud against the wall desperately to see if anything sticks.
Ben Hall (500-1) (Decreased) - Whatever small path he had to the run-off is quickly evaporating as his support shifts to King. He's rapidly getting marginalized in this election. In reality, what he needed (100% support of the anti-HER Ordinance vote) was never seriously going to materialize.
Summary: The way I see it we now have a three-way race for the run-off between Turner (who I think is a shoo-in), Garcia (who has a slight lead, but who could implode) and King (who has positives, but the potential for disaster due to some troubling business relationships and the fact that the municipal union HATES him). We're a little less than a month from polling day, and I think the picture is getting pretty clear.
