One of the issues with trying to track Houston Municipal Elections is the relative scarcity of good polling data. Call it a "Poll Desert*" if you will. It makes determining where the race is hard and it forces people to rely on a couple of things: Conventional wisdom and the Campaigns themselves. This is typically a recipe for disaster, or being very wrong.
Here at YDOP we're not afraid to be wrong. In fact, we embrace wrong as a necessary counter-balance to the rare times that we get it right. Those are the times when a celebratory Scotch is in order.
I now use the above as an argument why I'm choosing to reject conventional wisdom and substitute my own reality. The truth is we just don't know where things lie right now, so we might was well forward a theory. Here's mine:
It's fairly clear that this election is steamrolling toward a run-off. The conventional wisdom states that Sylvester Turner and Adrian Garcia are going to be the contestants. I'm not entirely sure this is correct, but I do get the argument.
1. Turner appears to be a shoo-in to make round 2. I haven't seen anyone seriously go after him on his (relatively sparse) record, or his seeming ability to pull defeat from the jaws of victory in past Mayoral contests (Turner says those were just pre-season after all) and the feeling, by many, probably is that there are enough "other" voting blocs out there who would vote against Turner to crate a winning coalition regardless.
So, let's put Turner in. He comes in first place with say....35-37% of the popular vote on round one. Maybe even as much as 40%.
2. Everyone appears to be going after Adrian Garcia. Why? Because I believe he's seen as vulnerable and he also has what many consider to be a large natural constituency: the Hispanic vote.
The thing about the Hispanic voting bloc is that they are not necessarily a bloc. They're a group that both conservatives and progressives feel will fall their way in a run-off election. This makes Garcia especially vulnerable as does his very public turbulence while Harris County Sheriff.
3. The attacks are starting to sting. Don't believe me? Take a look at the responses that are starting to trickle out. For a while, Garcia was silent in response to the attacks. That he's starting to respond, and is defending his record, tells me that his internal polling shows that these attacks are having an impact, and are probably significantly softening his support.
This doesn't mean everything is doom and gloom for Garcia however.
4. The Republican bloc is starting to show signs of a 3-way split. And the split appears to be unlikely to be reconciled before election day.
This is good news for Garcia because his main challengers appear to be either Republicans (King, Costello) or social conservatives (Hall) whose primary hope was to consolidate the Republican vote and uncouple enough Hispanic support from Garcia to eek out a 2nd place finish. There doesn't appear to be much hope for that unless things change drastically.
5. The television ads are starting to run.
This is probably the biggest development in the race because, until now, probably 50% of those likely to vote don't have a clue who's running. Here's a quick run-down.
Sylvester Turner: Dream it!
Review: For Turner this is a pretty typical ad. He's running a positive message and adopting an Ostrich-with-its-head-in-the-sand approach to Houston's fiscal issues. To me, the biggest problem that Turner has in these ads is that he's not the most convincing speaker. His body language is wooden, at best, and his timing feels forced. Still, there's nothing heinous in this ad. It's solid but not spectacular. Grade: C
Adrian Garcia: Nothing yet. I expect this to change soon.
What I expect: I'm assuming that Garcia will come out with a "Get to Know me" ad soon. I expect that it will be light and airy, in the same way that Turner's is. I would also expect him to create a Spanish language ad at or near the same time. Grade: Incomplete
Ben Hall: YouTube Channel, but no TV buy
What I expect: I think Ben Hall's first big TV buy will be a variant on his Moving Houston Forward YouTube drop from five months ago. As a matter of fact, I would expect something almost identical. It's not a horrible ad although it's production values feel low-end. Based on that I would expect his TV ad to be produced at a much higher level. Grade: Incomplete
Chris Bell: One Candidate
Review: This ad is not good. Production wise it feels like a movie trailer not a campaign ad. And the line "no baggage" is a laugher. It's also notable that he brought in abortion rights, which is a non-issue in the Mayoral Election but reaffirms Bell's inability to focus on City Priorities. Still, despite all that's wrong it is still better than his 2006 "Think Big" disaster of an ad for Governor. ("Moonshot for Education" still brings a chuckle.) Grade: D
Bill King: Pops is Going to Fix the Potholes
Review: King has been on the airwaves since May. The ad above was his second ad to drop, and it focuses on his "Back to Basics" message. It's a good ad, solid, not spectacular, but that's kind of in keeping with the candidate and the message the campaign is trying to convey. Solid, get things done, not flashy. Grade: B-
Stephen Costello: Hello Costello!
Review: Stephen Costello was among the first candidates to hit the airwaves, and his ad contained a fairly significant error that was humorously pointed out by the Chron's Ken Hoffman. Maybe it would have been wise for him to wait a bit? Grade: F (When the biggest reaction to your add is laughter, it's got to be given a failing grade )
Marty McVey: Nothing but a YouTube Introductory Video
What I expect: I'd be very surprised to see a full-on TV buy from McVey. I don't think he's going to have the money to do so. This video, while earnest, was overlong and cheaply produced. I think this is the best we're going to see from him. Once again, I think he understands that his winning future lies in an eventual run for City Council. He's just laying the groundwork here. Grade: Drop (Will not affect GPA)
Odds: As is typical, here's my Sportsbook style handicapping providing odds that each individual candidate will make the run-off.
Sylvester Turner: 1/5 - It's getting more and more clear that no one is going to go after Turner, and a lot of his opponents think that running against him is the clear path to victory. Because of this I'm increasing his odds. If Turner doesn't make the run-off it'd be a huge upset.
Adrian Garcia: 5/1 - Garcia is getting hit, and I think it's stinging a little, but I also think that whatever damage is being done is more than offset by the Republican in-fighting. If anything, despite the attacks, his chances of seeing the run-off have improved.
Stephen Costello, Ben Hall, Bill King: 100/1 - I'm grouping these three together right now because they're all basically fighting for the same constituency. The reality is that unless one of them can wrangle the cats that make-up the current conservative vote in Houston, they are all three going to find themselves out of the picture.
Chris Bell: 300-1 - The reality for Chris Bell is this: He's once again being viewed by the Left as a likeable guy who's a second-tier candidate with no obvious base of support outside of relatively well-off, Inner Loop Caucasian voters. Given today's modern electoral mix that's a pretty thin slice of support. He needs someone above him to crash, hard and fast.
Marty McVey: Taken off the board - The way I see it right now he cannot, under almost any circumstances, make the run-off. He has no natural constituency that's large enough to matter and lacks the funds to go toe-to-toe with the major players. It might behoove him to consider dropping out and supporting either Turner or Garcia in order to gain some patronage for a future council run. Whoever is advising him, if they're any good, should have already floated this idea.
So that's where I see us now. Can things change?
Of course, because we're still closer to Labor Day (when people start paying attention) than we are to the actual day of the election and oppo drops ALWAYS happen. Whether or not they have any legs is a little harder to determine or, how long it will take for those legs to get on solid ground. (For an example of this see the Hillary Clinton e-mail scandal that's been slow to grow, but looks as if it might be a real issue for her now.) On another note: Mayor Parker (on Twitter) declined to endorse in the race but declared that only the five candidates who support HER Ordinance to be viable candidates. Parker is, still, a popular Mayor but I doubt this moves the needle any at all. After weeks of claiming HER Ordinance is not a signature item it's odd that she is seemingly using it as a filter for which candidate is "worthy".
Until the next time.
*Might as well, since "deserts" (real or imagined) are the only thing our local media seem to respond to lately.
