Chron NFL writer John McClain compares the Houston Texans to the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals today in a column that, sort of, made me scratch my head.
First off, there's not much in the article linking the Texans to the Cardinals success, except (maybe) some parallels between stellar Cardinal reciever Larry Fitzgerald and All-pro Texans receiver Andre Johnson. Outside of that the teams are totally different.
Wide Reciever - Look past the number ones and there's no comparison between the Cardinals and the Texans. Cardinals number 2 Anquan Bouldin would be a number one receiver an almost every other team. He's got toughness, grit and determination to make catches, and take hits as a result, that many other receivers are lacking. The Cardinals number three wide receiver is Steve Breaston, a young speed guy with good hands. The Texans speed reciever is....Jacoby Jones, a burner with stone hands who's 2nd half of the season was a case study in how not to hang onto the ball.
Records - Yes, BOTH teams were 8-8 last year and the Cardinals 'backed' into the playoffs this year. The Cardinals also have one important luxury that the Texans don't, they play in a terrible division. 9-7 Next year will not make the playoffs in the AFC South. There's too much strength in all the divisions except the West, where 8-8 won this year. Odds are next year either the Titans or the Colts will be Division Champions, so the Texans will have to go the WC route. Ask 11-5 New England how that worked out for them.
Coaching - Kubiak is no Whisenhunt. Sorry Texans fans but its true. The local-media fawning over "Denver as a model" is proving to be a paper tiger, especially after the 'great Bronco meltdown of 2008' illustrated the flaws inherent in a system focusing on offense at the expense of Defense in today's NFL. The Cardinals are an offensive team, but they've successfully imported their defensive philosophy from Pittsburgh. That's right AFC Championship Pittsburgh.
Quarterback - Schaub is no Warner, and he's certainly no Ben Rothlisberger. There's evidence that Schaub will become a competent starting QB in the league, but he probably won't develop into they type of leader that carries a team on his back when things are going wrong a la Peyton Manning. For Schaub and the Texans to succeed there has to be a better showing from the defense. Given the general lack of talent and quality-depth across the board on the defensive side of the ball, I don't expect Frank Bush to change that overnight.
Defense - Speaking of Frank Bush, his biggest problem is that he's a proponent of the Denver 'style' of defense. The talk right now is of an 'aggressive-attacking' scheme that pressures the opposing team's quarterback and gets after the ball. We've heard this before, most recently with Richard Smith. Truth be told the Texans are going to have little success implementing any defensive system until they upgrade talent, especially on the Defensive Line (this despite three straight D-line first round picks in the draft), Linebackers and Safety. Another cover corner wouldn't hurt either. It's that bad.
None of this means that the Texans can't put things together and make a playoff run next season. They have a (relatively) high-powered offense with quality weapons in Johnson, Owen Daniels and Steve Slaton, a developing Offensive line that's well coached and continuity in the offensive staff. The 2009 NFL season could include a Texans playoff run but I'd lay those odds at about 10-1 because of the issues I've deliniated above. It will be interesting to see where Vegas puts them at the begining of next season.
That wouldn't be a bad bet to make if you're looking for a semi-longshot that might hit, for entertainment purposes only of course. (In other words: this ain't gambling advice, just idle Texans chatter)
