Thursday, September 11, 2014

Looking to November: For a desperate campaign, it's good to have an unquestioning TLSPM on your side.

There will be some jumping up and down over the following story, by both Democrats and the TLSPM:

Internal Survey: Davis trails Abbott by single digits. Patrick Svitek (w/Peggy Fikac). Chron.com

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis is trailing Republican opponent Greg Abbott by single digits for the first time this year in her campaign’s internal polling, according to a copy of it obtained by the Chronicle.The Davis campaign’s latest survey, which was conducted last week, shows her taking 38 percent of the vote to Abbott’s 46 percent.

By 'obtained' the Chron means "given to us by the Wendy! campaign in hopes we'd dutifully report it w/o question."  Fortunately for the Davis staffers, that's exactly the way the Chron TLSPM team rolls.

The truth is we don't know exactly where the gubernatorial race is right now.  We have a pretty good idea that Abbott is ahead, but by exactly how much remains a mystery.

The good news is that there should be some "independent" polling released fairly soon (YouGov is reportedly releasing one) that should give us a better idea.

My gut is that Abbott still has a double digit lead and I think he's going to win fairly comfortably but honestly I don't have any hard numbers to back that up. 

It will be interesting to see if the TLSPM "obtains" an Abbott internal poll soon and if they afford it the same unquestioning treatment as the Wendy! polling.