This is going to be a long-ish post so bear with me.
In the end there were four things that died last night, The political careers of David Dewhurst and Jerry Patterson, the political relevance of newspaper editorial boards and the political clout of House Speaker Straus and State Rep. Geren.
Dewhurst is perhaps the least surprising. After the loss to Ted Cruz he's been outed as a poor campaigner with little message besides "me too!" when referring to conservative political issues. While it's true that the media loves them a non-movement conservative Republican in positions of leadership, there's ample evidence that Dewhurst was disconnected from the reality of his campaign and that he let a relatively young and not-battle ready pack of hipsters waste a ton of his money, but also that he just never could grasp what it was that conservative voters found so unappealing in him.
As for Patterson, while his attacks were able to sway some in the Republican-blogger set to take him seriously (There was a robo-call out last night from "Texans for Accountability" that referenced this post specifically in a last-minute attack against Patrick) most Republicans seemed to attack the messenger more than the message which has left Patterson in the unfriendly position of being damaged goods. He's so toxic politically now that I doubt even Van de Putte and the Dems reach out to him in a hope to get a Republican endorsement.
Speaking of endorsements, the only Republican candidate to get a majority of Texas newspaper editorial board endorsements and still win was Ryan Sitton (This doesn't include Abbott and George P. Bush and other candidates who were basically unopposed). I would argue however that Sitton's win had more to do with his campaign, Tea Party support and the fact that Dan Branch was his opponent than did any endorsement in the local fish wraps. If nothing else, we're at a point in history where the gap between the political ideologies of major newspaper editorial boards and Republican voters is so large that an endorsement hurts a candidate rather than helps. I theorized back in 2012 that Rick Perry's strategy of bypassing the Ed boards and speaking directly with voters through his own publicity house-organ was the wave of the future. After this round of primaries I think this theory is strengthened. I wouldn't be surprised to see most Republican state-wide candidates declining invitations to sit and speak with editorial boards as we run up to November. If I were advising a candidate my reaction would be to pass, or to actively seek my opponent get the nod.
Finally, it was a bad night for House Speaker Straus and his crew as they went 0 fer in four key races where their allies were running for office. Today the spin-mongers are trying to down play the results but what happened was certainly bad for non-movement conservatives and good for the right-wing of the Republican Party. While I don't think this means Straus loses his Speakership (I think there are still enough D's and moderate R's with skins in the game to keep him from getting voted out) I do think the political goings-on in the Texas House will be far more raucous than those in the State Senate.
With the primaries now out of the way we have a short respite until things start heating up for the general election in November. I think the campaigns for some of these races will be better than the actual races themselves. Here's a quick summary:
John Cornyn vs. David Alameel (US Senate) - This is going to be a snoozer. Alameel was taken to a run-off by LaRouchian Kesha Rogers. Yes, Cornyn struggled in his primary but that's a primary, not a general election against a progressive candidate who would push and back policies against the economic interests of the State. Plus, he did avoid the run-off, something Alameel couldn't do against bad opposition. Alameel has not proven himself to be much of a candidate in the run-up and if he does try to get feisty Cornyn's machine will grind him down. On election day I think Cornyn wins with over 60% of the vote, barring something unforeseen.
Greg Abbott vs. Wendy! Davis (TX Gov) - If we're all going to be honest about this then we have to admit that the heat in this election was extinguished long ago under a wave of Davis gaffes that proved her to be not ready for prime-time. This result will fall under the same 55% (R) 40% (D) range that I discussed yesterday leaving Texas Dems with the same question that they've been asking for the last 20-something years: "When is that demographic change going to happen?"
Dan Patrick vs. Laticia Van de Putte (TX Lt. Gov) - While I think this has the potential to be one of the better campaigns on the ticket I still don't think there's enough of a Democratic base to push Van de Putte over the 45% hump. She'll probably run more on the issues than on Mr. Patrick, especially seeing how the attacks backfired against Dewhurst, unfortunately (for her) I still think the issues of the Texas Democratic Party do not resonate with a majority of voters in Texas.
Ken Paxton vs. Sam Houston (Atty. General) - Despite having a catchy historical name, Sam Houston is relatively unknown by Texas voters. Paxton brings a ton of baggage which is why I view this as the best chance for Texas Democrats to break through. I also think this is going to be among the ugliest of campaigns. While I still think the Republican structural advantage is enough to carry Paxton through, he is going to have a fight on his hands.
A few more quick thoughts:
In the race for Agricultural Commissioner the Democrats revealed that their problem is still one of bench strength. Their run-off consisted of a politician who's not campaigning and a side-show. The non-campaigner won meaning that in this race, as well as in the races for Land Commissioner and Railroad Commission the Dems are starting in an 0-3 hole in Statewide races. I think they have outside chances in the races for Comptroller (more on that later) and, as I stated above, Attorney General but everything is going to need to break just right for them if they even want to be competitive. If anything, the political buzz surrounding the R run-off vs. the D run-off speaks volumes. Even the media and news-ish sites couldn't get too worked up over the Democratic options.
On the bright side, we should receive a robo-call break for at least the Summer. That's never a bad thing. And it means that we don't have to sit through endless TV ads breaking into our favorite shows either. People who moan and complain about low voter interest in politics need to take a hard look at the process itself. There are a lot of bad actors in the campaign consulting business. Unfortunately, they are also those who win. For all of the talk about "getting money out of politics" the reality is it has become a large economy in and of itself. Much like casino gambling however it only takes out of society and never puts back in. To begin reform, we need politicians who take hard looks at who they're hiring and stop bringing on the bad actors.
This will happen at about the same time I get elected to public office. In other words, never.
