Given the disastrous start to the Texans free-agency season, you'd think the analysis would be a little more measured than this.
Don't get me wrong, I like Ed Reed as a potential short-term replacement for Glover Quin, but I don't like the roster of wide receivers, I don't like the returning offensive line (and don't give me the "three pro bowl" players crap. The o-line was barely average last year), I don't like the depth at cornerback, I don't like the current linebacker situation, I don't like the special teams at all, I don't like the fact that the Texans are looking at an rapidly aging defensive backfield with no depth, I don't like that Arian Foster has been declining in production every year and I don't like Matt Schaub at quarterback.
It doesn't matter whether or not the Texans have a plan in place or not($$$) if that plan is a bad one. And, despite McClain's obvious fealty to the Texans PR line, whatever plan they claim to have is reactionary at best.
As Houston lawyer, and author of the blog Houston's Clear Thinkers Tom Kirkendall recently reminded me: McClain and the Chron scribes were singing this exact same "everything is OK, these guys know what they're doing" tune right before the disastrous 2-14 season.
I don't think the Texans will go 2-14 next year, but I don't think they're on a path to win the division either. I think Indianapolis now is the front-runner with the Texans battling for Wild Card scraps. Last year I underestimated how easy their early schedule would be, and figured they'd go 8-8. They beat that guess by four games, but played sub-.500 ball in the last quarter of the season and the playoffs (1-3 to finish the year and 1-1 in the playoffs)
Next season, although the schedule isn't set, we know who they're playing at home and on the road.
Home:
Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Denver, Oakland, St. Louis, Seattle, New England
Road:
Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Kansas City, San Diego, Arizona, San Francisco, Baltimore
It's not beyond the pale to see this team finishing 4-4 at home and 5-3 on the road.
That's 9-7, and I'm betting that won't win the division next year. It might not even make the playoffs.
