Friday, March 15, 2013

The profitable Astros and an owner with a tin ear...

Judging from the comments to the ChronBlog run-down of Jim Crane's comments to the Wall Street Journal, (You know, the "private company/give me a check for $10Mil comments) there are a couple of things the general public isn't getting about the current state of the Astros.

The big thing is, yes, the Astros are a private company, but they happen to ply their craft in a public stadium.  This means that the public does have a substantial stake in the team.  What that doesn't mean is that Astros fans should tell Crane how to spend his money, but it does mean that he's at least somewhat obligated to try and build a successful franchise.  Not legally obligated for sure, but in that unwritten way that sports teams are part of the civic fabric.  Where he has no obligation to the fans is to not be an idiot.  Jim Crane comes across, at times, as a grade A idiot in interviews.

Then, there is the fact that, believe it or not, Crane is really not going to need much buy-in from Astros fans for this team to be successful.  I know what you're saying, that he can't make a going concern of it with no ticket sales but I'd argue he's not going to lack for ticket sales, nor do they matter all that much.  What's really important to this team's financial success is the success/failure of Comcast SportsNet: Houston.  If that is a financial success then the Astros will be as well.  Even IF Astros fans decide the team is not worth watching, there are going to be enough games where the stadium is full of Rangers, Yankee, Red Sox, Angels and fans of other teams to keep the Astros in the black.  Anyone ready for Minute Maid Park to be listed as the worst home-field advantage in sports?  Because that's what's getting ready to happen, at least for the next couple of years.  And, with dynamic pricing now a big part of the Astros ticket selling strategy, it's likely they'll make more money on those Houstonians with other allegiances than they will on the hard-core Astros fan anyway.

Whatever the record of the team, this is still (on paper) Major League Baseball.  It will be marketed as such and it really doesn't matter if the Astros are a major league caliber team or not.  What matters is that their opponents will be, on most nights, and that will be enough to keep enough fans streaming through the turnstiles, paying a lot for bad beer and marginal concessions or deciding to tune in and watch on TV at levels sufficient to keep advertising revenue flowing in.

In short: The Astros don't need the Astros fan any longer to make money.  They don't even (really) have to win.  As a matter of fact, the more they lose to opposing teams at home the more those teams are going to come and watch, and be willing to pay ever higher-prices for the privilege of seeing their favorite Nine beat the crap out of the hapless home team.  Financially then it might be the best policy for the Astros to keep losing.

That's a scary thought.