In 2019 the race for Houston Mayor should be the big story, and while it's been brewing for a while, yesterday's political announcements pretty much kicked things off proper:
Buzbee, King, call for donor limits at City Hall. Houston Chronicle.
If you're thinking you've heard similar sentiments recently, you're correct. Lina Hidalgo announced something similar just the day before. Suddenly everyone in Houston is trying to get on the "good governance" train.
Bill King, has basically been running for Mayor since he narrowly lost in 2015,publishing missive after missive against Turner in his blog and on Twitter. Some of his jabs, including pointing out that Turner's staff has ballooned to 102 since he took office and that many of them make over $100,000 per year, seem to be something that might gain some traction, were he able to get any traction in local media.
It's odd then that this is the issue that does, because this is an issue that media will fawn over, but which I don't see moving the electoral needle all that much. Houston is basically DC at this point, through an electoral lens. Turner could shoot someone down on Smith Street and still receive enough votes to get into a run-off. Houston is a one-party town, minus the effective machine that exists in Chicago. A machine that Turner would give his political eye-teeth to develop and maintain.
King is saddled with the baggage of losing previously, and now he's faced with the fact that his signature issue, pension reform, has been effectively kicked far enough down the road that people are willing to suspend disbelief and call it "fixed" despite it being no such thing.
Buzbee is a wild-card, more of a bomb-thrower than a serious candidate at this point with very little evidence suggesting that will change.
So far, no one else legitimate has thrown their hat in the ring but, should they, you would have to think the challenge would come from the right, further diluting the opposition pool. I just can't see any serious Democrat wanting to challenge Turner. Stephen Costello is smart enough to keep his powder dry, be content to be named the czar of pretty much everything and then take that crown and attempt to parlay it to City Hall in 2023 with Turner's blessing.
Mayor Costello, THAT's a sobering thought.
Given the current state of things here are my very early odds on the race and where I see the candidates place in it: (Odds are to make the run-off)
Sylvester Turner (-2000) The prohibitive favorite who has both the power of incumbency and the largest natural voting base in the election. It would take the presence of a strong, Democratic candidate entering the race to change these odds and I just don't see that happening.
Tony Buzbee (+500) I make his odds this long because it's highly possible he flames out. But I put him in second place for reasons that I'll elaborate more on in just a minute. He's going to be loud, he's going to be flashy, he might even provide some amusement. Will he win? Doubtful. He's got little in the way of message and no natural base.
Bill King (+800) I've met Bill King, he's a decent man. Certainly a politician though and that's the problem. He's going to have to overcome the perception that he's a perpetual candidate after losing against Turner in 2015 and now having to reinvent himself but he does at least have a base of voter support in Houston, something Buzbee is lacking. Where I think he's going to struggle is that he has a lot of entrenched opposition as well, something Buzbee does not have at the moment.
A bigger challenge for both Buzbee and King is that, even if they are to find an issue that could be damaging to Turner, it probably is not going to matter. You'd have to have it resonate with a large portion of Turner's voters to the level that they would be willing to rethink their support for him.
Good luck with that.
