Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Houston's Summer Tradition: Lessons (not) learned from a poorly designed survey.

As Spring winds down and Houston begins it's long slog toward Summer's heat and humidity it's time to revisit the worst of political traditions, The Kinder Houston Area Survey.

It's a bright, sunny time when the unproductive class (and the Houston Chronicle) rely heavily on questions asked minus the vital context of trade-off. Where pluralities support light rail and dense, urban living without being asked what they're willing to give up in order to achieve Houtopia.

To whit:

Montgomery and Fort Bend Counties more similar than different study shows. Matthew Tresaugue, HoustonChronicle.com ($$$)

(You know the drill, fair use quote, go read the entire article if you can)

Separated by 50 miles of Houston sprawl, the two counties see bumper-to-bumper traffic as the region's biggest problem, ahead of crime and the local economy, the poll found. And despite the car-oriented cultures of both places, four in 10 people surveyed say they would prefer to live within walking distance of work, restaurants and shops.

(Emphasis mine)

Anyone surprised they said that?  Because who wouldn't want to live within walking distance of these things?  In a perfect world I'd like to live in the South of France and sip Chablis all day while watching beautiful sunsets with two ladies in bikinis by my side.

Of course, that would anger my wife, which would put a strain on my marriage and probably end up with me being divorced. So that would suck. I also would probably lose my job which would mean that I'd have to sneak into France, avoid their tough immigration and have to live in the shadows. Because of this I'd probably be broke so the Chablis that I would drink would be limited to mostly empty bottles that I lifted from cafĂ© tables, and the two bikini-clad French ladies on my arm would probably only be figments of my imagination since I wouldn't have the Millions of Euros needed to support that lifestyle.

So, that's out then.

What Kinder doesn't (adequately) ask people in it's survey is similar, although not nearly as extreme. What would survey respondents be willing to give up to live the mythical lifestyle that Houston Tomorrow and other groups advocate?

For one, they'd have to give up their current employment which, as is the case with most large companies, is located in on of Houston's business centers. This would probably mean that they'd have to take a significant pay cut. Are they willing to do that?

They'd also probably have to pay 5-10 times more for a similar home if they lived in a walkable area. Dense, urban city living often carrying a high cost. In reality, they'd probably be looking at multi-family housing. I know right now you're thinking one of Houston's many luxury apartments would be pretty good right?  Well, they're not cheap, "luxury" not meaning actually luxurious but expensive. In most cases, including rent and maintenance fees, these will run 2-3 times current house payments in the suburbs.  This means that they're probably looking at a mid-to-lower level apartment complex, which carry negative connotations of high-crime and dodgy maintenance.  Would they be willing to give up their yards and pets to partake in this idyllic life-style?

Then we have the thorny issue of schools. A LOT of suburbanites move to said suburbs to ensure that little Tommy and Tammy attend better school districts. They do this because they all think that their offspring are going to become star athletes or lawyers, doctors etc. The ignores the reality that, in todays marketplace, they're probably going to end up as middle managers with ulcers and 2.4 children, a mortgage (in the suburbs) and a car payment that's slightly too high because that Acura CXV really looked nice in the showroom and 84 months is totally a reasonable amount to spend on a car.

But would they want to give all of this up if it meant they could pop down to the local Whole Foods, get an EZ credit decision to finance their weekly grocery bill and get back home before the Voice starts?

Again, this year, we will never know because the study never asked.