There are some problems however, as today's HoustonChronicle.com article briefly mentions....
Davis Claims Momentum as Abbott touts $30MM in War chest. Patrick Svitek. HoustonChronicle.com ($)
(In respect of the Chron's wishes for their reporting to not be read, I only take a smidgen of their work to reproduce here)
Republicans flagged a number of problems with the Lyceum poll, starting with its finding that 48 percent of Texans approve of President Barack Obama - several points above the national average in a solidly red state.
What the Republicans are saying is true. A quick review of recent history suggests that the Texas Democrats might want to not start measuring the drapes in the Texas Governor's Mansion just yet.
Let's review:
2010 Gubernatorial Race:
Texas Lyceum Poll: Rick Perry 48% Bill White 43%
Actual Results: Rick Perry 55% Bill White 42.3%
In 2010 Lyceum had White close, almost within the margin of error. There was much celebrating and mocking of Perry in Democratic circles. Talk amongst the InterLeft was of finally getting access to the Texas Governor's Mansion, maybe live-blogging a state dinner from an ante-room, possibly getting an embossed invite to White's Inauguration (but not the after party). As Perry would say....Oops.
2013 Lyceum Poll and President Barack Obama
A 50% job approval rate.
If you honestly believe President Obama has enjoyed a 50% approval rate in Texas then you're not paying attention. Texas has long trailed the National Average in many polls and remains one of the most solidly Red states in the Country.
2011 Lyceum Poll and President Barack Obama
A 51% Job Approval Rate
It takes a special disconnect with Texas to ever think the President had a majority job-approval rating here.
Based on history I would suggest that the Texas Lyceum Poll is around 7-8% biased toward Democrats. I'm unsure whether they are over-sampling Democrats or over-weighting them to achieve an expected result but, based on the cross-tabs, I'm thinking it's probably a little of both.
For people who don't understand polls and the nature of sampling this is all just a bunch of words that have little meaning. If you do understand polling however I urge you to go look at the Lyceum cross-tabs and make up your own mind. To their credit, they do provide them for scrutiny free of charge.
This is not to suggest that the Texas Lyceum is biased. Looking over their List of Directors, Executive Committee and Advisory Council it appears that the group is only slightly weighted toward liberal membership. Of course, this is normal of almost any think-tank group that doesn't identify as conservative.
What this does suggest is that the Wendy! campaign, Texas Democrats and the InterLeft are going to be all worked up and (in one case at least) blockquoting the HoustonChronicle.com story with glee. If history is any indication of future results however they're going to do this only to face a margin of defeat of around 17-18 points come the morning of November 5th.
One additional aside: One of the reasons polls like the one from Texas Lyceum and the horrible on-line poll from the Texas Tribune are given such weight is due to the fact that most media outlets in Texas aren't running their own polls any longer. This has really led to a dearth of good polling results and makes it that much harder to identify the outliers or one's with questionable methodology.
