Sunday, May 16, 2010

A tarnished crown.

I predicted this would happen, yesterday after the Preakness....

(Derby and Preakness winners to skip Belmont, The Sports Network via The Miami Herald, 05/16/10)
Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness Stakes champ Lookin At Lucky will both skip the Belmont Stakes.
According to the Daily Racing Form, both respective trainers, Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert, said Sunday morning that both would be kept out of thoroughbred racing's third jewel of the Triple Crown, set for June 5 at Belmont Park.


Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/05/16/1632255/derby-and-preakness-winners-to.html#ixzz0o6smVp4x
Unless you have a horse who's won the first two jewels of the Triple Crown, why put a 3yr old in a situation where they're going to have to A) run at a distance (1 1/2 miles) that they'll probably never run again and B) be placed in a position where they have to run 3 races in five weeks?

Don't misunderstand this, I enjoy the Belmont Stakes and, while it's not my favorite horse race (that would be the Breeder's Cup Classic FWIW) it's still a meaningful race. The problem that The Belmont is facing is cost/benefit. There's the aforementioned distance, which can wear out a 3yr old colt being typically ran by older horses, coupled with a paltry (by modern horse racing standards) $1 MM purse. There are plenty of graded stakes races to ran some of which mach, or exceed, the $1MM mark. Given that, why would a trainer think about entering a worn out young horse into a race that's distanced for 4y/o and up?


It sounds as if First Dude and Dublin are going to run, and there will be the usual crop of 'new shooters' in the field which should make it interesting. If all else fails bet all of the Nick Zito or D. Wayne Lukas horses to win. based on recent history that's a winning strategy.