Not that the Heisman has truly been about naming "the most outstanding player in College Football" for quite some time. In fact, considering the group of journalists and former winners that have a vote, it's long been about finding the MVP of the top team, from a media-attention perspective, in the Nation. Because of this, he's probably got more than a 90% chance of winning.
Which is too bad.
The problem with Colt winning on the basis of this year's performance is this: He'll probably go down as one of the least deserving Heisman trophy winners in history. Based on his career that's not very fair. McCoy has been an above-average to great quarterback for UT-Austin for most of his career. Last year, when he lost to OU Quarterback Sam Bradford despite having better numbers, he was historic in terms of passing efficiency and did everything he needed to do....except beat Texas Tech on the road. Sam Bradford made it to the Big xII championship game, so Bradford wins the most meaningless trophy in college football.
The thing is, it doesn't have to be this way. The voting panel that makes up the Heisman vote could pay attention to what happens on the field and cast an intelligent vote if they wanted to. It's just that they don't want to. It's far better to pick the best player on an undefeated team and be done with it. No silly research for us. Then there's the "overhyped white QB" factor. All things being equal, a Caucasian QB is going to have an advantage over a minority player The exception to this is when said minority player is head and shoulders above the white QB in terms of output, and even then (see Jackson, Bo & Long, Chuck for more) the vote will be closer than it should be.
Because of these factors Colt McCoy has a chance of winning despite a statistical line (330/468, 3782 yds, 27 TD's & 12 INT's) that's average when compared to other College Quarterbacks. And that's the whole rub that many have in regards to Colt McCoy winning the Heisman this year. Average players are not, by definition, the most outstanding player in college football.
Based on recent history I've got little doubt that the final 5 who go to New York for the award ceremony will look something like this:
Colt McCoy, QB - UT-Austin (stats above)Against that lineup McCoy wins.
Tim Tebow, QB - Florida (182/279, 2413 yds, 18 TD's 5 INT & 859 yds rushing w/13 TD's)
Toby Gerhart, RB - Stanford (311 carries/1,736 yds, 26 TD's 0 fumbles)
Golden Tate, WR - Notre Dame (93 receptions/1,496 yds, 15 TD's + 25 carries/186 yards, 2TD's + 32 Punt returns/171 yds, 1TD)
Jimmy Clausen, QB - Notre Dame (289/485, 3,722 yds, 28 TD's, 4 INT's)
Now, here's how the final 5 should look:
Mark Ingram, RB - Alabama (249 carries, 1,542 yds, 15 TD's + 30 receptions, 322 yds, 3 TD's)
Toby Gerhart, RB - Stanford (311 carries/1,736 yds, 26 TD's 0 fumbles)
Ndamukong Suh, DT - Nebraska (82 tackles (47 solo), 12 sacks, 1 INT)
Case Keenum, QB - Houston (468/659, 5449 yds, 43 TD's, 9 INT's + 132 yds rushing w/1=4 TD's)
Mardy Gilyard, WR - Cincinatti (80 Receptions, 1,150 yards, 11 TD's + 69 KR's, 1,276 yards, 3TD's)
If I had a vote it would be as follows:
1. Mark IngramI give extra credit to Ingram for doing what he did against the much tougher SEC. It won't work that way however, because this is the Heisman trophy we're talking about.
2. Toby Gerhart
3. Ndamukong Suh
4. Case Keenum
5. Mardy Gilyard
