I have to admit to being at least a little surprised by this:
Alameel threatens Cornyn campaign with Lawsuit. Aman Batheja, Texas Tribune
I'm surprised not because Alameel is threatening a lawsuit, Texas Democratic candidates have been known to do that (and it should be noted, in the case of Chris Bell, win a financial settlement) so there's a financial incentive in doing so, especially when you're looking down the barrel of a 10-20% electoral drubbing.
No, I'm surprised because I can't see any reason for Cornyn to even mention Alameel by name.
Here's a candidate with zero name ID outside of the hard-core Democratic base, who needed a primary run-off to defeat Kesha Rogers, who hasn't shown any ability to mount an effective campaign and you provide him with both a platform and opportunity to cash in with the TLSPM for some free press?
It's not like Cornyn is running against the 2nd coming of Lyndon Baines Johnson here. Think closer to Rick Noriega. (*snicker*) A candidate so bad John Spong of Texas Monthly felt the need to write an article trying to help him win.
In my view all Cornyn needs to do to win comfortably is keep his eye on the "fight the Obama agenda" ball and run a TV ad or three.
Maybe someone can explain this move to me?
Friday, May 30, 2014
Looking to November: How will they campaign? (Part 2 of a series)
Previous Posts:
Introduction
Part 1: How will the Democrats campaign?
After taking a look at how I think the Democrats will campaign I'll now try to pivot over to the Republicans and their conservative bloc of candidates who, I feel, will do things just a little differently. It's going to be important in this election to sever the Abbott campaign from the remaining state-wide Republicans as I'll (hopefully) demonstrate below.
Republicans (Abbott specifically): Abbott has, and will, run his campaign fully on the Texas Miracle and will attempt to cast himself as the One who has been selected to steer the rudder with a steady hand. He will promote past successes including his work at Attorney General (glossing over the cases he lost of course) and will ceaselessly promote his "Working Texas" agenda which is in many ways a continuation of the direction the State has been moving. Abbott's Issues Page on his campaign website read's like a who's who of both republican and business wishes. He will focus on competency, portraying Wendy Davis as an out of touch Washington D.C. politician whose come to Texas to ruin what they have built. His primary message is going to be that his solutions are based on common sense, while Wendy Davis' are nothing more than a plan to raise taxes and throw money at the problems with no hard solutions in place. He will also, as he has already, dedicate campaign resources in an effort to paint Davis and Democrats as unfeeling and uncaring on handicapped issues.
Conservatives: (Taking the lead from Dan Patrick): In contrast to Abbott, the remainder of the candidates on the Republican slate are going to follow Patrick and veer right. Patrick has already said that the voters gave Republicans a mandate to pursue a conservative agenda and he will campaign heavily on that. Yesterday, on his radio station (AM 700 KSEV) I heard Patrick complain about "personal attacks from Democrats" and it will be curious to see if he spends much time on that rather than the issues.
It will be interesting to see the Republican platform coming out of the 2014 State convention because I have a feeling it will be much more conservative than the 2012 version. You can expect the remaining candidates, for Attorney General, Comptroller, Agricultural Commissioner and Land Commissioner follow Patrick's lead on all these issues.
Another promise that Patrick has made, and it will be interesting to see if the other Republicans will follow, is that he plans to campaign in traditional Democratic strongholds. Patrick believes that his 'invasion' framing of immigration issues helps him within the Hispanic community. Time will tell if Republicans find this to be an issue or not.
For the remaining campaigns it will be interesting to see how much effort they put into their respective races. So far, George P. Bush has made some insular speeches and has not really been actively engaged. Given his opponent it's very likely he won't need to be. Ryan Sitton had to campaign hard to win the nomination. He was shunted by the GOP "Pay for Play" slates and had the albatross of newspaper editorial board endorsements weighing him down. He ran a campaign based on his oil and gas industry experience. He'll probably do the same here, but will also focus on what he considers to be his opponent's lack of industry knowledge, and general disdain for the industry at large.
The last campaign worth mentioning specifically is Ken Paxton for Attorney General. In the primary and run-off, ethics questions arose regarding his campaign expenditures and filings. I would imagine that Sam Houston, the Democratic nominee, is going to attempt to gain some traction there. In addition to overcoming a candidate with a historical name (which is typically good for a few percentage points from low-information voters) it will be interesting to see how Paxton deals with this, again, or whether he chooses to ignore it as a settled issue.
Finally, unlike the Democrats, who will run a more coordinated campaign, the Republican campaigns will be mostly driven by the candidates. They can do this because they are both better funded in Texas and have deep bench strength when it comes to running statewide campaigns. There will be a few over-arching themes that I would expect Republicans to bring forward however. One will be Obamacare which, on a National level, is struggling as cost projections are proving to be under-estimated and for which Texas is being blamed for it's struggles. Expect Republicans to wear the responsibility for this as a badge of honor. Second, is the EPA. This has proven to be a winning issue with voters and is seen, by Republicans, as evidence of Federal overreach into issues protected by the 10th amendment to the Constitution of the United States. As the candidates wage their own campaigns expect to see coordinated Republican attacks continue against Washington D.C. and the Obama agenda. I think it goes without saying, this will be the sole focus of the Cornyn campaign.
Despite being slightly fractured along two lines, I do think the Republicans will all work together to move the slate forward. While I think Abbott is the least likely to strike a firebrand tone, I do think he won't be opposed to coat-tailing on the other candidates to get these fiery messages across. I think the State party, and other affiliated groups, will continue to take their "abortion Barbie" shots at Wendy Davis and will do most of the heavy lifting in terms of painting the Democrats as a progressive group way out of touch with Texas voters.
And that's it for the campaigning. Next week we'll start with the Governor's race and try and get a picture of what each candidate's governing style would be.
As always, if you have any questions or suggestions please let me know.
Introduction
Part 1: How will the Democrats campaign?
After taking a look at how I think the Democrats will campaign I'll now try to pivot over to the Republicans and their conservative bloc of candidates who, I feel, will do things just a little differently. It's going to be important in this election to sever the Abbott campaign from the remaining state-wide Republicans as I'll (hopefully) demonstrate below.
Republicans (Abbott specifically): Abbott has, and will, run his campaign fully on the Texas Miracle and will attempt to cast himself as the One who has been selected to steer the rudder with a steady hand. He will promote past successes including his work at Attorney General (glossing over the cases he lost of course) and will ceaselessly promote his "Working Texas" agenda which is in many ways a continuation of the direction the State has been moving. Abbott's Issues Page on his campaign website read's like a who's who of both republican and business wishes. He will focus on competency, portraying Wendy Davis as an out of touch Washington D.C. politician whose come to Texas to ruin what they have built. His primary message is going to be that his solutions are based on common sense, while Wendy Davis' are nothing more than a plan to raise taxes and throw money at the problems with no hard solutions in place. He will also, as he has already, dedicate campaign resources in an effort to paint Davis and Democrats as unfeeling and uncaring on handicapped issues.
Conservatives: (Taking the lead from Dan Patrick): In contrast to Abbott, the remainder of the candidates on the Republican slate are going to follow Patrick and veer right. Patrick has already said that the voters gave Republicans a mandate to pursue a conservative agenda and he will campaign heavily on that. Yesterday, on his radio station (AM 700 KSEV) I heard Patrick complain about "personal attacks from Democrats" and it will be curious to see if he spends much time on that rather than the issues.
It will be interesting to see the Republican platform coming out of the 2014 State convention because I have a feeling it will be much more conservative than the 2012 version. You can expect the remaining candidates, for Attorney General, Comptroller, Agricultural Commissioner and Land Commissioner follow Patrick's lead on all these issues.
Another promise that Patrick has made, and it will be interesting to see if the other Republicans will follow, is that he plans to campaign in traditional Democratic strongholds. Patrick believes that his 'invasion' framing of immigration issues helps him within the Hispanic community. Time will tell if Republicans find this to be an issue or not.
For the remaining campaigns it will be interesting to see how much effort they put into their respective races. So far, George P. Bush has made some insular speeches and has not really been actively engaged. Given his opponent it's very likely he won't need to be. Ryan Sitton had to campaign hard to win the nomination. He was shunted by the GOP "Pay for Play" slates and had the albatross of newspaper editorial board endorsements weighing him down. He ran a campaign based on his oil and gas industry experience. He'll probably do the same here, but will also focus on what he considers to be his opponent's lack of industry knowledge, and general disdain for the industry at large.
The last campaign worth mentioning specifically is Ken Paxton for Attorney General. In the primary and run-off, ethics questions arose regarding his campaign expenditures and filings. I would imagine that Sam Houston, the Democratic nominee, is going to attempt to gain some traction there. In addition to overcoming a candidate with a historical name (which is typically good for a few percentage points from low-information voters) it will be interesting to see how Paxton deals with this, again, or whether he chooses to ignore it as a settled issue.
Finally, unlike the Democrats, who will run a more coordinated campaign, the Republican campaigns will be mostly driven by the candidates. They can do this because they are both better funded in Texas and have deep bench strength when it comes to running statewide campaigns. There will be a few over-arching themes that I would expect Republicans to bring forward however. One will be Obamacare which, on a National level, is struggling as cost projections are proving to be under-estimated and for which Texas is being blamed for it's struggles. Expect Republicans to wear the responsibility for this as a badge of honor. Second, is the EPA. This has proven to be a winning issue with voters and is seen, by Republicans, as evidence of Federal overreach into issues protected by the 10th amendment to the Constitution of the United States. As the candidates wage their own campaigns expect to see coordinated Republican attacks continue against Washington D.C. and the Obama agenda. I think it goes without saying, this will be the sole focus of the Cornyn campaign.
Despite being slightly fractured along two lines, I do think the Republicans will all work together to move the slate forward. While I think Abbott is the least likely to strike a firebrand tone, I do think he won't be opposed to coat-tailing on the other candidates to get these fiery messages across. I think the State party, and other affiliated groups, will continue to take their "abortion Barbie" shots at Wendy Davis and will do most of the heavy lifting in terms of painting the Democrats as a progressive group way out of touch with Texas voters.
And that's it for the campaigning. Next week we'll start with the Governor's race and try and get a picture of what each candidate's governing style would be.
As always, if you have any questions or suggestions please let me know.
Thursday, May 29, 2014
LGBT issues, Houston and the Texas Republican Party
Yesterday there was much cheering and gnashing of teeth as Houston City Council passed the newly minted Equal Rights Ordinance (name changed from the Non-Discrimination Ordinance mainly to make good use of the Twitter handle #HERO and provide for better chanting) on an 11-6 vote which was then signed into law by Mayor Annise Parker.
After weeks of suggesting the ordinance was about all discrimination the mask came off recently as Parker described passage of the act "a personal matter" and "all about me". After passage even the Houston Chronicle got into the act, running the following story with the following headline.
Council extends rights protection for gays, transgendered. Mike Morris, Houstonchronicle.com
The story is behind their pay wall, but it's certainly an editorial change for America's largest big-city daily to have never won a Pulitzer. You have to imagine Mrs. White is sniffling in the corner for titling their editorial "Pass the NDO" instead of HERO.
As for opponents, they have vowed to gather the 17,000 signatures needed to bring a repeal to the ballot in November. By City statute they have 30 days to do this, I'm betting they could get 50,000 in that time if they so desired. In other words, this is going to the ballot box, where I'm fairly certain it will be overturned by a wide margin.
In other news relating to the LGBT front, the Texas State Republican Party has denied the Log Cabin Republicans a booth at their upcoming convention. While I don't think Texas Republicans are in danger of paying any type of electoral price for this, I do think it's rather exclusionary and silly to not let a government group in just because they run counter to a plank in the state party platform.
Of course, I also doubt you'd see a booth at the Texas State Democratic Party convention entitled "Democrats for the defense of traditional marriage" so there's that as well. (And, if you're reading this Dems, you're welcome for the idea)
One thing about the LGBT political fight is that I don't think there is much electoral ground to be gained by either party. Most people with feelings strong enough to base their vote on it are already firmly entrenched in their camp of choice and anyone who could still, realistically, call themselves an undecided (or swing [no pun intended]) voter is typically worried about economic issues or just not really paying attention and they like the attention the media heaps on them come election time. In other words, support might be a mile wide, but I've a feeling it's about an inch deep.
Either way, I suspect we're be hearing about this all the way to the November elections and beyond. Will it matter? Probably not, from a political perspective that is.
After weeks of suggesting the ordinance was about all discrimination the mask came off recently as Parker described passage of the act "a personal matter" and "all about me". After passage even the Houston Chronicle got into the act, running the following story with the following headline.
Council extends rights protection for gays, transgendered. Mike Morris, Houstonchronicle.com
The story is behind their pay wall, but it's certainly an editorial change for America's largest big-city daily to have never won a Pulitzer. You have to imagine Mrs. White is sniffling in the corner for titling their editorial "Pass the NDO" instead of HERO.
As for opponents, they have vowed to gather the 17,000 signatures needed to bring a repeal to the ballot in November. By City statute they have 30 days to do this, I'm betting they could get 50,000 in that time if they so desired. In other words, this is going to the ballot box, where I'm fairly certain it will be overturned by a wide margin.
In other news relating to the LGBT front, the Texas State Republican Party has denied the Log Cabin Republicans a booth at their upcoming convention. While I don't think Texas Republicans are in danger of paying any type of electoral price for this, I do think it's rather exclusionary and silly to not let a government group in just because they run counter to a plank in the state party platform.
Of course, I also doubt you'd see a booth at the Texas State Democratic Party convention entitled "Democrats for the defense of traditional marriage" so there's that as well. (And, if you're reading this Dems, you're welcome for the idea)
One thing about the LGBT political fight is that I don't think there is much electoral ground to be gained by either party. Most people with feelings strong enough to base their vote on it are already firmly entrenched in their camp of choice and anyone who could still, realistically, call themselves an undecided (or swing [no pun intended]) voter is typically worried about economic issues or just not really paying attention and they like the attention the media heaps on them come election time. In other words, support might be a mile wide, but I've a feeling it's about an inch deep.
Either way, I suspect we're be hearing about this all the way to the November elections and beyond. Will it matter? Probably not, from a political perspective that is.
Looking to November: How will they campaign? (Part 1 of a series)
Before getting too deep into how each individual candidate will govern I think it's important to first look at how each party will campaign, what their issues will be, and how, from a general point of view, we can expect this to all play out.
Leading up to November I expect three overlying themes to develop. I'm going to attempt to break them down here by party and (additionally) by ideology since I think there has to be a separation of Republican and conservative campaign talking points for any of it to make any sense.
All that said, let's start with:
Democrats: The talking points from the Blue team are already taking shape on several different fronts. It is very clear that Texas Democrats are going to form a massive offensive around the idea that today's Texas Republican Party = the Tea Party and are "unfit to lead". I would expect Texas Dems to double down on this point finding what they consider to be onerous examples of Tea Party members behaving badly and doing their level best to associate various Republicans who drape themselves in the Tea Party banner to these closely. Make no doubt about it, the State party is going to go hard negative early and often. You're also going to hear a lot of talk about education and education funding from Democrats who are going to repeatedly reference the $5 Billion dollars in education cuts that they have vowed to restore, and then surpass. Again their casting of Republicans is going to be as spend-thrift old white mean who don't want poor, predominantly minority children to succeed. Democrats will also focus on abortion rights, continuing to push the War on women message as well as the movement to legalize and provide equal benefits to LGBT couples.
On fiscal issues expect to see increasing calls for common sense tax reform that, I'm guessing here, will not include a State income tax but will include eliminating exemptions for most oil and gas production severance taxes. Democrats will also push for more green energy subsidies, as well as increased environmental standards for both existing and new oil refining facilities, gas processing plants and energy plants. Also, Democrats have long been asking for the gasoline tax to be indexed to inflation and the extra monies diverted to mass transit projects in lieu of new road construction.
Keeping in sync with National issues, Texas Democrats will continue their long-term pushes for Medicare expansion, an increase in the minimum wage to counter income inequality and rolling back Republican lawsuit reform that they say has deprived citizens of their right to redress corporate wrongs.
Expect the Democrats to hammer the Republicans hard on these issues, issues where they believe the Texas GOP has exposure to the voting public, what Democrats have traditionally termed "lunch pail" issues and have used in an attempt to portray the GOP as elitist and out of touch with mainstream society. That this dovetails nicely with their overall casting of Republicans as mean, far right-wing hate-mongers at war with women and minorities is a bonus in this cycle they feel.
I will say this. While these points are overarching themes I do expect the Governor's race to be campaigned in a slightly different manner. I'm unsure that Wendy Davis is going to try and paint Greg Abbott as a Tea-Party pocketed sycophant, but will instead hit him heavily regarding his legislative tendencies as Attorney General and then tie those proclivities to the items above. The most progressive campaigner is almost sure to be Leticia Van de Putte, who is one of the more progressive candidates on this year's ballot.
Tomorrow we'll take a look at what is sure to be the Republican campaign strategy and how they'll attack/counter-attack the Democrats. I'll also, at that time, talk about whether or not the Democrats will actively defend against Republican charges.
Leading up to November I expect three overlying themes to develop. I'm going to attempt to break them down here by party and (additionally) by ideology since I think there has to be a separation of Republican and conservative campaign talking points for any of it to make any sense.
All that said, let's start with:
Democrats: The talking points from the Blue team are already taking shape on several different fronts. It is very clear that Texas Democrats are going to form a massive offensive around the idea that today's Texas Republican Party = the Tea Party and are "unfit to lead". I would expect Texas Dems to double down on this point finding what they consider to be onerous examples of Tea Party members behaving badly and doing their level best to associate various Republicans who drape themselves in the Tea Party banner to these closely. Make no doubt about it, the State party is going to go hard negative early and often. You're also going to hear a lot of talk about education and education funding from Democrats who are going to repeatedly reference the $5 Billion dollars in education cuts that they have vowed to restore, and then surpass. Again their casting of Republicans is going to be as spend-thrift old white mean who don't want poor, predominantly minority children to succeed. Democrats will also focus on abortion rights, continuing to push the War on women message as well as the movement to legalize and provide equal benefits to LGBT couples.
On fiscal issues expect to see increasing calls for common sense tax reform that, I'm guessing here, will not include a State income tax but will include eliminating exemptions for most oil and gas production severance taxes. Democrats will also push for more green energy subsidies, as well as increased environmental standards for both existing and new oil refining facilities, gas processing plants and energy plants. Also, Democrats have long been asking for the gasoline tax to be indexed to inflation and the extra monies diverted to mass transit projects in lieu of new road construction.
Keeping in sync with National issues, Texas Democrats will continue their long-term pushes for Medicare expansion, an increase in the minimum wage to counter income inequality and rolling back Republican lawsuit reform that they say has deprived citizens of their right to redress corporate wrongs.
Expect the Democrats to hammer the Republicans hard on these issues, issues where they believe the Texas GOP has exposure to the voting public, what Democrats have traditionally termed "lunch pail" issues and have used in an attempt to portray the GOP as elitist and out of touch with mainstream society. That this dovetails nicely with their overall casting of Republicans as mean, far right-wing hate-mongers at war with women and minorities is a bonus in this cycle they feel.
I will say this. While these points are overarching themes I do expect the Governor's race to be campaigned in a slightly different manner. I'm unsure that Wendy Davis is going to try and paint Greg Abbott as a Tea-Party pocketed sycophant, but will instead hit him heavily regarding his legislative tendencies as Attorney General and then tie those proclivities to the items above. The most progressive campaigner is almost sure to be Leticia Van de Putte, who is one of the more progressive candidates on this year's ballot.
Tomorrow we'll take a look at what is sure to be the Republican campaign strategy and how they'll attack/counter-attack the Democrats. I'll also, at that time, talk about whether or not the Democrats will actively defend against Republican charges.
Wednesday, May 28, 2014
Looking to November: How would they govern? (Introduction to a series)
While it's no secret to anyone paying attention to this blog, I feel the need to point out here that I am, in fact, a Republican. More important than this however is my self-identification as a movement conservative (a phrase I borrowed from Kevin Whited at BlogHouston.) Most of this, however, is on the fiscal side of things. When it comes to most, not all, social issues I would more rightly be considered a libertarian. (little L intentional) Because of this I'm OK with LGBT marriage, on-board with the legalization of certain drugs (although I don't use them myself, even though some of my prose might suggest that I do) and am extremely worried about the over-criminalization of America.
On the fiscal front I'm very worried about runaway spending at the local, state and federal levels and I'm not thrilled with the amount of corporate welfare that's built into our political system at all levels. And yes, I support lower taxation and reasonable, consistent, effective regulation where needed. I also understand that there are some roles that government must fill with infrastructure, education and public safety being primary. I often find that most (not all) Texans feel this way and the differences surround the costs, theories and application of fixing these problems.
This is probably more about me politically than I've ever released in a blog post, or any format for that matter, outside of my circle of friends. As I'm watching election returns come in tonight, I'm struck to do this because, here we go again, I feel the Texas Lock-Step Political Media (TLSPM) and the news-ish organizations are not, or will not be, reporting correctly on the political races to come.
That is why I've decided to take a long, hopefully fair, look at each big, statewide race to determine how each candidate will actually govern if elected. I plan to try and avoid using loaded language in this, and I will try to document this fully through links and, if necessary, additional foot-notes.
If you're a Democrat reading this I invite you to stick around. Yes, I will continue to write things about the City of Houston region that you are probably not going to like. Skip that. For once I am honestly looking forward to your feedback on my fairness here, including whether or not my attempts to delineate your candidate's intentions are accurate or no. I can only promise this. I will refrain from using my typical shoddy-humor in these posts and I will refrain from any analysis other than characterizing policy as either "progressive" or "conservative" which I believe is fair.
As it stands now (10:20 PM Tuesday May, 27th) I have the following order in mind:
1. Texas Governor: Greg Abbott (R) vs. Wendy Davis (D)
2. TX Lt. Governor: Dan Patrick (R) vs. Leticia Van de Putte (D)
3. Texas Comptroller: Mike Collier (D) vs. Glenn Hegar (R)
4. Texas RRC Commish: Steve Brown (D) vs. Ryan Sitton (R)
5. Texas Atty Gen: Sam Houston (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R)
6. Other Statewide races: Land Commish, (Bush (R) vs. Cook (D)) Ag Commish (Hogan (D) vs. Miller (R))
Note: Above candidates listed by alphabetical order of last name. Also, I will not be covering the US Senate Race between David Alameel (D) and John Cornyn (R). Politics at the federal level is way, way outside the scope of this little blog. If I find a good summary of this race I'll link to it.
Those are the State-wide races I'll be covering. If you have any other specific (competitive please) races you would like me to take a look at (provided you think what I'm doing is of any value) then please let me know in the comments or via e-mail.
My plan is to churn these out at a rate of one per week. However, by the time you read this (I'm scheduling it to publish Wednesday afternoon) I might have changed my mind. If the schedule fells too ambitious given my work schedule at the day job I'll update as needed.
Until then, you have the floor. Tell me what you want to see and why.
On the fiscal front I'm very worried about runaway spending at the local, state and federal levels and I'm not thrilled with the amount of corporate welfare that's built into our political system at all levels. And yes, I support lower taxation and reasonable, consistent, effective regulation where needed. I also understand that there are some roles that government must fill with infrastructure, education and public safety being primary. I often find that most (not all) Texans feel this way and the differences surround the costs, theories and application of fixing these problems.
This is probably more about me politically than I've ever released in a blog post, or any format for that matter, outside of my circle of friends. As I'm watching election returns come in tonight, I'm struck to do this because, here we go again, I feel the Texas Lock-Step Political Media (TLSPM) and the news-ish organizations are not, or will not be, reporting correctly on the political races to come.
That is why I've decided to take a long, hopefully fair, look at each big, statewide race to determine how each candidate will actually govern if elected. I plan to try and avoid using loaded language in this, and I will try to document this fully through links and, if necessary, additional foot-notes.
If you're a Democrat reading this I invite you to stick around. Yes, I will continue to write things about the City of Houston region that you are probably not going to like. Skip that. For once I am honestly looking forward to your feedback on my fairness here, including whether or not my attempts to delineate your candidate's intentions are accurate or no. I can only promise this. I will refrain from using my typical shoddy-humor in these posts and I will refrain from any analysis other than characterizing policy as either "progressive" or "conservative" which I believe is fair.
As it stands now (10:20 PM Tuesday May, 27th) I have the following order in mind:
1. Texas Governor: Greg Abbott (R) vs. Wendy Davis (D)
2. TX Lt. Governor: Dan Patrick (R) vs. Leticia Van de Putte (D)
3. Texas Comptroller: Mike Collier (D) vs. Glenn Hegar (R)
4. Texas RRC Commish: Steve Brown (D) vs. Ryan Sitton (R)
5. Texas Atty Gen: Sam Houston (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R)
6. Other Statewide races: Land Commish, (Bush (R) vs. Cook (D)) Ag Commish (Hogan (D) vs. Miller (R))
Note: Above candidates listed by alphabetical order of last name. Also, I will not be covering the US Senate Race between David Alameel (D) and John Cornyn (R). Politics at the federal level is way, way outside the scope of this little blog. If I find a good summary of this race I'll link to it.
Those are the State-wide races I'll be covering. If you have any other specific (competitive please) races you would like me to take a look at (provided you think what I'm doing is of any value) then please let me know in the comments or via e-mail.
My plan is to churn these out at a rate of one per week. However, by the time you read this (I'm scheduling it to publish Wednesday afternoon) I might have changed my mind. If the schedule fells too ambitious given my work schedule at the day job I'll update as needed.
Until then, you have the floor. Tell me what you want to see and why.
Bombing runs against Houston's revenue cap.
We're not yet at the point where the Parker administration is ready to storm the beaches, but the initial bombing runs are commencing to weaken opposition.
For years Houston has watched as so-called "fiscally responsible" Mayors such as Bill White and Annise Parker have kicked the pension can down the road. We're now at the end of the road and what faces city government is a brick wall.
Strangely enough, as has been the case on several city finance issues, the Council Member making the most sense here is former HPD Chief C.O. Bradford. It is high time that Houston have a conversation about what are and what are not "core services" and whether or not there are things the city is trying to do that could be better handled in alternative (read: cheaper) ways.
Until we get to that point however the bombing runs will continue, leading up to an eventual stand-off in 2015 when voters get their say on how much revenue the city can collect.
Not mentioned (yet) in this discussion is the flawed property appraisal process which allows for huge raises in revenues that cause revenue-cap problems in the first place. Perhaps the City should partner with lawmakers in State Government who are trying to come up with real solutions to Texas problematic tax structure?
Then there's the issue of spending, which I have addressed before. In a (big) way, I echo Mr. Bradford when I wonder exactly what all of the City monies are going toward?
Don't worry however, these things will be dealt with in time. Now, back to the Grand Urinal Bargain of 2014.
For years Houston has watched as so-called "fiscally responsible" Mayors such as Bill White and Annise Parker have kicked the pension can down the road. We're now at the end of the road and what faces city government is a brick wall.
Strangely enough, as has been the case on several city finance issues, the Council Member making the most sense here is former HPD Chief C.O. Bradford. It is high time that Houston have a conversation about what are and what are not "core services" and whether or not there are things the city is trying to do that could be better handled in alternative (read: cheaper) ways.
Until we get to that point however the bombing runs will continue, leading up to an eventual stand-off in 2015 when voters get their say on how much revenue the city can collect.
Not mentioned (yet) in this discussion is the flawed property appraisal process which allows for huge raises in revenues that cause revenue-cap problems in the first place. Perhaps the City should partner with lawmakers in State Government who are trying to come up with real solutions to Texas problematic tax structure?
Then there's the issue of spending, which I have addressed before. In a (big) way, I echo Mr. Bradford when I wonder exactly what all of the City monies are going toward?
Don't worry however, these things will be dealt with in time. Now, back to the Grand Urinal Bargain of 2014.
Texas Primary Run-off Post Mortem
This is going to be a long-ish post so bear with me.
In the end there were four things that died last night, The political careers of David Dewhurst and Jerry Patterson, the political relevance of newspaper editorial boards and the political clout of House Speaker Straus and State Rep. Geren.
Dewhurst is perhaps the least surprising. After the loss to Ted Cruz he's been outed as a poor campaigner with little message besides "me too!" when referring to conservative political issues. While it's true that the media loves them a non-movement conservative Republican in positions of leadership, there's ample evidence that Dewhurst was disconnected from the reality of his campaign and that he let a relatively young and not-battle ready pack of hipsters waste a ton of his money, but also that he just never could grasp what it was that conservative voters found so unappealing in him.
As for Patterson, while his attacks were able to sway some in the Republican-blogger set to take him seriously (There was a robo-call out last night from "Texans for Accountability" that referenced this post specifically in a last-minute attack against Patrick) most Republicans seemed to attack the messenger more than the message which has left Patterson in the unfriendly position of being damaged goods. He's so toxic politically now that I doubt even Van de Putte and the Dems reach out to him in a hope to get a Republican endorsement.
Speaking of endorsements, the only Republican candidate to get a majority of Texas newspaper editorial board endorsements and still win was Ryan Sitton (This doesn't include Abbott and George P. Bush and other candidates who were basically unopposed). I would argue however that Sitton's win had more to do with his campaign, Tea Party support and the fact that Dan Branch was his opponent than did any endorsement in the local fish wraps. If nothing else, we're at a point in history where the gap between the political ideologies of major newspaper editorial boards and Republican voters is so large that an endorsement hurts a candidate rather than helps. I theorized back in 2012 that Rick Perry's strategy of bypassing the Ed boards and speaking directly with voters through his own publicity house-organ was the wave of the future. After this round of primaries I think this theory is strengthened. I wouldn't be surprised to see most Republican state-wide candidates declining invitations to sit and speak with editorial boards as we run up to November. If I were advising a candidate my reaction would be to pass, or to actively seek my opponent get the nod.
Finally, it was a bad night for House Speaker Straus and his crew as they went 0 fer in four key races where their allies were running for office. Today the spin-mongers are trying to down play the results but what happened was certainly bad for non-movement conservatives and good for the right-wing of the Republican Party. While I don't think this means Straus loses his Speakership (I think there are still enough D's and moderate R's with skins in the game to keep him from getting voted out) I do think the political goings-on in the Texas House will be far more raucous than those in the State Senate.
With the primaries now out of the way we have a short respite until things start heating up for the general election in November. I think the campaigns for some of these races will be better than the actual races themselves. Here's a quick summary:
John Cornyn vs. David Alameel (US Senate) - This is going to be a snoozer. Alameel was taken to a run-off by LaRouchian Kesha Rogers. Yes, Cornyn struggled in his primary but that's a primary, not a general election against a progressive candidate who would push and back policies against the economic interests of the State. Plus, he did avoid the run-off, something Alameel couldn't do against bad opposition. Alameel has not proven himself to be much of a candidate in the run-up and if he does try to get feisty Cornyn's machine will grind him down. On election day I think Cornyn wins with over 60% of the vote, barring something unforeseen.
Greg Abbott vs. Wendy! Davis (TX Gov) - If we're all going to be honest about this then we have to admit that the heat in this election was extinguished long ago under a wave of Davis gaffes that proved her to be not ready for prime-time. This result will fall under the same 55% (R) 40% (D) range that I discussed yesterday leaving Texas Dems with the same question that they've been asking for the last 20-something years: "When is that demographic change going to happen?"
Dan Patrick vs. Laticia Van de Putte (TX Lt. Gov) - While I think this has the potential to be one of the better campaigns on the ticket I still don't think there's enough of a Democratic base to push Van de Putte over the 45% hump. She'll probably run more on the issues than on Mr. Patrick, especially seeing how the attacks backfired against Dewhurst, unfortunately (for her) I still think the issues of the Texas Democratic Party do not resonate with a majority of voters in Texas.
Ken Paxton vs. Sam Houston (Atty. General) - Despite having a catchy historical name, Sam Houston is relatively unknown by Texas voters. Paxton brings a ton of baggage which is why I view this as the best chance for Texas Democrats to break through. I also think this is going to be among the ugliest of campaigns. While I still think the Republican structural advantage is enough to carry Paxton through, he is going to have a fight on his hands.
A few more quick thoughts:
In the race for Agricultural Commissioner the Democrats revealed that their problem is still one of bench strength. Their run-off consisted of a politician who's not campaigning and a side-show. The non-campaigner won meaning that in this race, as well as in the races for Land Commissioner and Railroad Commission the Dems are starting in an 0-3 hole in Statewide races. I think they have outside chances in the races for Comptroller (more on that later) and, as I stated above, Attorney General but everything is going to need to break just right for them if they even want to be competitive. If anything, the political buzz surrounding the R run-off vs. the D run-off speaks volumes. Even the media and news-ish sites couldn't get too worked up over the Democratic options.
On the bright side, we should receive a robo-call break for at least the Summer. That's never a bad thing. And it means that we don't have to sit through endless TV ads breaking into our favorite shows either. People who moan and complain about low voter interest in politics need to take a hard look at the process itself. There are a lot of bad actors in the campaign consulting business. Unfortunately, they are also those who win. For all of the talk about "getting money out of politics" the reality is it has become a large economy in and of itself. Much like casino gambling however it only takes out of society and never puts back in. To begin reform, we need politicians who take hard looks at who they're hiring and stop bringing on the bad actors.
This will happen at about the same time I get elected to public office. In other words, never.
In the end there were four things that died last night, The political careers of David Dewhurst and Jerry Patterson, the political relevance of newspaper editorial boards and the political clout of House Speaker Straus and State Rep. Geren.
Dewhurst is perhaps the least surprising. After the loss to Ted Cruz he's been outed as a poor campaigner with little message besides "me too!" when referring to conservative political issues. While it's true that the media loves them a non-movement conservative Republican in positions of leadership, there's ample evidence that Dewhurst was disconnected from the reality of his campaign and that he let a relatively young and not-battle ready pack of hipsters waste a ton of his money, but also that he just never could grasp what it was that conservative voters found so unappealing in him.
As for Patterson, while his attacks were able to sway some in the Republican-blogger set to take him seriously (There was a robo-call out last night from "Texans for Accountability" that referenced this post specifically in a last-minute attack against Patrick) most Republicans seemed to attack the messenger more than the message which has left Patterson in the unfriendly position of being damaged goods. He's so toxic politically now that I doubt even Van de Putte and the Dems reach out to him in a hope to get a Republican endorsement.
Speaking of endorsements, the only Republican candidate to get a majority of Texas newspaper editorial board endorsements and still win was Ryan Sitton (This doesn't include Abbott and George P. Bush and other candidates who were basically unopposed). I would argue however that Sitton's win had more to do with his campaign, Tea Party support and the fact that Dan Branch was his opponent than did any endorsement in the local fish wraps. If nothing else, we're at a point in history where the gap between the political ideologies of major newspaper editorial boards and Republican voters is so large that an endorsement hurts a candidate rather than helps. I theorized back in 2012 that Rick Perry's strategy of bypassing the Ed boards and speaking directly with voters through his own publicity house-organ was the wave of the future. After this round of primaries I think this theory is strengthened. I wouldn't be surprised to see most Republican state-wide candidates declining invitations to sit and speak with editorial boards as we run up to November. If I were advising a candidate my reaction would be to pass, or to actively seek my opponent get the nod.
Finally, it was a bad night for House Speaker Straus and his crew as they went 0 fer in four key races where their allies were running for office. Today the spin-mongers are trying to down play the results but what happened was certainly bad for non-movement conservatives and good for the right-wing of the Republican Party. While I don't think this means Straus loses his Speakership (I think there are still enough D's and moderate R's with skins in the game to keep him from getting voted out) I do think the political goings-on in the Texas House will be far more raucous than those in the State Senate.
With the primaries now out of the way we have a short respite until things start heating up for the general election in November. I think the campaigns for some of these races will be better than the actual races themselves. Here's a quick summary:
John Cornyn vs. David Alameel (US Senate) - This is going to be a snoozer. Alameel was taken to a run-off by LaRouchian Kesha Rogers. Yes, Cornyn struggled in his primary but that's a primary, not a general election against a progressive candidate who would push and back policies against the economic interests of the State. Plus, he did avoid the run-off, something Alameel couldn't do against bad opposition. Alameel has not proven himself to be much of a candidate in the run-up and if he does try to get feisty Cornyn's machine will grind him down. On election day I think Cornyn wins with over 60% of the vote, barring something unforeseen.
Greg Abbott vs. Wendy! Davis (TX Gov) - If we're all going to be honest about this then we have to admit that the heat in this election was extinguished long ago under a wave of Davis gaffes that proved her to be not ready for prime-time. This result will fall under the same 55% (R) 40% (D) range that I discussed yesterday leaving Texas Dems with the same question that they've been asking for the last 20-something years: "When is that demographic change going to happen?"
Dan Patrick vs. Laticia Van de Putte (TX Lt. Gov) - While I think this has the potential to be one of the better campaigns on the ticket I still don't think there's enough of a Democratic base to push Van de Putte over the 45% hump. She'll probably run more on the issues than on Mr. Patrick, especially seeing how the attacks backfired against Dewhurst, unfortunately (for her) I still think the issues of the Texas Democratic Party do not resonate with a majority of voters in Texas.
Ken Paxton vs. Sam Houston (Atty. General) - Despite having a catchy historical name, Sam Houston is relatively unknown by Texas voters. Paxton brings a ton of baggage which is why I view this as the best chance for Texas Democrats to break through. I also think this is going to be among the ugliest of campaigns. While I still think the Republican structural advantage is enough to carry Paxton through, he is going to have a fight on his hands.
A few more quick thoughts:
In the race for Agricultural Commissioner the Democrats revealed that their problem is still one of bench strength. Their run-off consisted of a politician who's not campaigning and a side-show. The non-campaigner won meaning that in this race, as well as in the races for Land Commissioner and Railroad Commission the Dems are starting in an 0-3 hole in Statewide races. I think they have outside chances in the races for Comptroller (more on that later) and, as I stated above, Attorney General but everything is going to need to break just right for them if they even want to be competitive. If anything, the political buzz surrounding the R run-off vs. the D run-off speaks volumes. Even the media and news-ish sites couldn't get too worked up over the Democratic options.
On the bright side, we should receive a robo-call break for at least the Summer. That's never a bad thing. And it means that we don't have to sit through endless TV ads breaking into our favorite shows either. People who moan and complain about low voter interest in politics need to take a hard look at the process itself. There are a lot of bad actors in the campaign consulting business. Unfortunately, they are also those who win. For all of the talk about "getting money out of politics" the reality is it has become a large economy in and of itself. Much like casino gambling however it only takes out of society and never puts back in. To begin reform, we need politicians who take hard looks at who they're hiring and stop bringing on the bad actors.
This will happen at about the same time I get elected to public office. In other words, never.
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