Las Vegas Massacre: In Defense of Video Poker

I am a video poker player.

So, apparently, was Stephen Paddock the man who you now know, unless you've been living under a rock, carried-out the worst mass-shooting event in modern American history last Sunday evening.  His choice of gaming, and lifestyle, of course has the media in a tizzy....

Las Vegas Gunman Chased Las Vegas' Payouts and Perks. New York Times

Las Vegas Shooter Lived High-Stakes Lifestyle. Chicago Tribune

Vegas Shooter's Gambling Draws New Attention to Video Poker. Yahoo! News.

Paddock's Game of Choice Allowed Him to Blend In. Las Vegas Review-Journal


It's not surprising that a person good at maths chose video poker as his game of choice. The 'house edge' or expected value of the game is among the best in the casino for the player, IF proper strategy is used. It's also a game, like blackjack, where correct decisions by the player can reduce the house edge even further.

At Paddock's playing level the expected return was probably somewhere around 99.20%.  That means for every $100 you play you can expect, over time, to lose $.80.  Factor in comps for high-end players (free rooms, free meals, shows, alcohol etc.) and you could easily realize a return of greater than 100% over time.

And the goal of any casino patron is to beat the casino right?

We have a propensity in this country to try and find evil in everything an evil person does. And that's what I think is happening here with video poker.  As we struggle to rationalize how a person could be so callous as to kill 58 people and injure 489, we start to look at the things they did in life and make them more sinister than they really are in an attempt to assuage society's blame for his sins.

We tend to find "things" that might have sparked him, and there are a ton of low-rent, headline-chasing social scientists, and so-called "experts" that will tell us whatever we want to know about these "things" to make us feel better.

"Video Poker is the crack-cocaine of gambling!" (From the New York Times Piece)

Except that it's not.  Instead, video poker is a happy-medium between playing slots, and playing on the tables.

A lot of people don't like to play table games for one reason or another. Maybe they don't like the crowds or are uncomfortable having others judge their play. If you've ever sat at "third base" (the last seat next to the dealer's right hand) at a blackjack table and made the "wrong play" and been hollered at for it you might understand why, then you could see why video poker, a game where strategy still counts but is more solitary, has an appeal.

But the main appeal, and the reason for it's popularity, is the relatively high expected value from the game and the very real chance at making some real money on an smallish sized bet.  For example, I am not a high-roller, gambling is entertainment for me but, I frequently win $500 on a $1.25 bet playing at the 25-cent level.  I've won $1683 on a Royal Flush playing the same. My biggest slot win is $2080 on a $5 bet.  Which game do you think has the better expected value?

As a regular Vegas visitor I was distraught when I first heard the news, and was even more sad when the scope of the event became fully known.  Now it's coming out that this evil man was an accountant, a frequent Vegas visitor and a video poker player, just like me.

This makes it difficult because I cannot envision a situation where playing video poker, or anything in life for that matter, would make me act in such a way. Which is kind of my point.

Stephen Paddock did what he did not because he played video poker or because he was chasing the high-end Vegas lifestyle. He did what he did because he was an evil prick.  Full stop.

Video poker had nothing to do with it.  Ask the Millions of people who do "fly into Vegas to play it" despite what the so-called "experts" tell you.  It's a great, fun game and a good way to control your losses if played correctly, much less volatile than slots.  Yes, it's less social than a table game, but so are slots.

Neither should be demonized in this.

Las Vegas: Give as you are able.

Last night at around 10PM Vegas time a very deranged man by the name of Stephen Paddock broke his hotel room window on the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay hotel and casino and proceeded to fire hundreds of round of bullets into approximately 20,000 people who were attending an outdoor country music festival.

The horrific result was the deadliest mass shooting in modern US History with a (current) count of 58 dead and 400+ wounded. It is a tragedy that knocked a hole into the collective psyche of a city that I love and, more importantly, has permanently damaged the lives of thousands due to loss of a loved one or injury.

There will come a time to discuss next steps but, for now, I would encourage you to either donate blood (if you're able) or make a donation if you can.

GoFundMe for Las Vegas Victims.

Until then, this blog offers up thought and prayers to everyone who is suffering from this.

Bad Humanity: Pray for Las Vegas

Horrific news out of Las Vegas:

Mass Shooting leaves at least 50 dead, 400 wounded in Las Vegas. Las Vegas Review-Journal


There will, of course, be a lot of politics that surround the loss of 50 souls as ghouls on both sides try and use this for political gain. Right now I think it's best to ignore that and just do what we can to help those who were harmed, and to thank those who ran toward the shooter when everyone else was (rightfully) running away.

I'll just leave this here as I'm very saddened this morning by a tragedy in one of my favorite places in the world.