Texas Leadership Vacuum: The AG decrees that Texans will now have one less option.

Scratch Daily Fantasy Sports off the list.

Texas Attorney General: Daily Fantasy Sports Constitutes Illegal Gambling. Peggy Fikac, Chron.com

Attorney General Ken Paxton said Tuesday in a nonbinding opinion that daily fantasy sports is "illegal gambling" in Texas. 

"Simply put, it is prohibited gambling in Texas if you bet on the performance of a participant in a sporting event and the house takes a cut,” he said in a statement.

For what it's worth, I agree with Mr. Paxton that DFS is, in fact, gambling.  And gambling, per State law, is illegal outside of official functions of the lottery and increasingly limited horse and dog racing options.  Also legal, that one Tribal casino,  driving on Houston's freeways, on or around the Danger train or walking anywhere near Houston's police chief.  Otherwise, gambling in Texas is illegal.

And if you don't believe that there is good money to be made on keeping it that way, Governor Abbott and (especially) Lt. Governor Dan Patrick are here to convince you otherwise. The campaign largesse provided to politicians who oppose gaming in Texas are much bigger than those that do.  And the forces in opposition to Texas gaming are winning far more often than they are losing.

So, besides the politicians, who wins from this?

Louisiana and Oklahoma (Tribal) casinos for one. They're doing so well that Tillman Fertitta is already adding a new 300 room tower to his Lake Charles Golden Nugget property. The Winstar Resort and Casino in Oklahoma is currently working on a 65,000 square foot expansion of their convention center space and the Choctaw Casino and Resort (Oklahoma) recently put the finishing touches on their own $275MM expansion.  Given that amount of money, Fertitta's $138K contribution and the Kickapoo Tribe of Texas' $125K contribution to Patrick's record setting war chest is peanuts.  Opposing in-state gaming is good not only for so-called "free market" politicians but it's good for those rigging the game as well.

People who are morally opposed to gambling win, at least on a superficial level.  Because what these laws are NOT doing is preventing people from gambling. So while those with means are certainly leaving the State to partake in gambling those without are increasingly being forced underground into the rich-target environments that are illegal, and unregulated, gaming houses.  Others are simply taking their chances with illegal, and unregulated, online casinos that operate offshore.  Neither of those options contribute to Texas tax revenues, although the former does contribute mightily to the revenues of Louisiana, Oklahoma and (especially) the Tribes.  So while gambling proponents love to rally around the flag of social Puritanism, in fact they are putting the poor and those without means into even more danger, thus bringing increased crime into the neighborhoods, rather than less as they claim.

The Texas Lottery, and the various multi-State lotteries, are profiting as well.  Because absent any meaningful competition things like low-success-rate, high-take-out scratch-offs and PowerBall drawings look attractive.  If other gambling options were readily available then those state-sanctioned monopolies would all but cease to exist.

The next important day for Texas gaming is going to be February 16th, the day that funding is going to expire for the Texas Racing Commission.  Prior to that an injunction hearing on February 3rd is going to be key.  Failing that, and given their recent failure to repeal rules regarding historical racing terminals, Texas may be one step closer to the Lottery being an uncontested monopoly in the state.

And Dan Patrick, State Sen. Jane Nelson and others will see their reelection funds grow just that much more.

Meanwhile, Texans will continue to pour across the border or engage in illegal (and dangerously unregulated) activity in order to get their fix.

Reality Check: So you didn't win the PowerBall.

As you wake up this morning and realize that you didn't win the PowerBall lottery and that $1.5(ish) Billion is NOT coming your way. I think it's smart to sit back a minute and ponder why we thought we could win in the first place.

The idea that "someone has to win it, why not me?" is a compelling idea that has no basis in reality. It's also a fool's dream.  That doesn't mean that you shouldn't play, for fun, on a lark, because if I said that I would be pretty hypocritical considering that I too purchased two quick-pick tickets (with the multiplier) for a total expenditure of $6.

To be truthful, I'll be glad to hit enough numbers to win my money back. I think if I hit the PowerBall on one ticket I would do that (since I played the multiplier).  That's fine with me.

I don't play the lottery. The reason that I played this time is because I have always said that I would buy a ticket if the jackpot reached a Billion dollars. I played once before, over a decade ago, when it reached $100 Million for the first time. The drawing came and I didn't match a single number. As a joke I told everyone that I would play when it hits a Billion, thinking that was a number I'd never see, and I could keep my change in my pocket instead of voluntarily paying a tax.

To quote Rick Perry "Oops."

So, I've thrown away $6 which I'll never see again, with the less than an atom's width hope that I'll somehow match enough Ping-Pong balls to at least get it back. Even then, the odds are against me (and you). The problem I have with this is that people say "You can always dream." when speaking about the Lottery when it's not really a dream at all.  The Lottery acts as a government-sponsored nightmare that is, in reality, a tax, voluntarily paid by those who don't pay much attention to probability.

I don't begrudge anyone their choice of gaming. I try not to be a conservative scold (of the kind you see in news story comments that make fun of those who do) but I will point out that many people who are gaga over the PowerBall would break out in hives if you proposed slot-machines at race tracks. If you want to gamble your money on the Lottery then I feel you should have the ability to do so. On the other hand, I enjoy playing poker, and blackjack, and 3-card poker, and video poker, all games with much better odds than the Lottery and a much higher expected payout over time. Games (OK, excepting 3-card poker) where some strategy can increase your odds and give you a chance to walk away, in the short term, with some winnings. I also enjoy sports betting, another game that requires skill to do well, as well as a healthy dose of luck..

Despite the fact that I have better odds at winning at these events, the State of Texas has decided that I must leave the State to partake in them. They don't want me risking $300-$1,000 playing table games or betting sports, but have no problem with Texans spending that much for a 1-in-292 Million chance at hitting it big.

Why?  Because Texas doesn't want the competition.

Of course, we could go bet the ponies, and some do, but the State now wants to deprive us of that privilege as well.

As you get your coffee this morning (unless you're like Tom Brady that is) and get ready to trudge toward work for another day, don't head there with a heavy heart or a sense of disappointment, because this was always how things were going to be. And it may be that they were always going to be that way because the Lottery is a rigged game.  Maybe that's why States like Nevada outlaw lotteries choosing to allow residents to engage in regulated casino gaming. Gaming that, while still offering up poor odds, is a lot better than what Lotteries are offering. Give me the 0-3% house edge on blackjack any day. (with perfect strategy, using a good system)

So, this morning, we're all getting up and heading to our jobs. Some will be disappointed that they didn't strike it big, or that they didn't even match some partial numbers and win anything. I haven't checked yet this morning to see if there was a winner, although I imagine their has to be just based on the sheer volume of ticket sales.  Then again, I thought that on Saturday when the Jackpot hit $900 MM.  I was wrong then as well.

So I hereby state that I will not play the Lottery again until the Jackpot reaches $1 Trillion.

I should be safe for a while.  You might want to make the same pledge as well.  Heck, take your lottery money to the horse track and put it towards a Pick-4 if you like to gamble a little. Your odds will be better and pulling for the ponies is a lot more fun than watching Ping-Pong balls come out of a machine.  You might help save Texas racing as well. And while it's ridiculous to think that no one will play the lottery, if we could cut down on the number of people who play it then maybe we could force the Texas Legislature to take an honest look at gambling as a whole?

I know.....a 1 in 500 Million chance of that happening, which makes it less likely than hitting the PowerBall Jackpot.