Ding Dong the Witch is dead, but here comes her sister, who could be considerably more evil.
Unless you're not a fan of American football, you probably watched last night's final B(C)S Championship tie between the Confused Tigers of Auburn and the thereby letter from the Tribe Seminoles of Florida State. If you're really a fan, you checked out of ESPN's "MegaCast" options before realizing that the #titletalk option on ESPN2 was a load of televised crap.
For a change, the game delivered. When Heisman trophy winner Jameis Winston threw the winning TD pass with :13 seconds left on the clock it marked the, to borrow a phrase from Brent Musberger, "perfect end to an imperfect system." And what a system it was, heavily weighted toward the SEC it was a system that sucked all of the life out of January 1st, created more mis-matches than great games, and reminded us just why, in College ball, the regular season is the attraction each and every year.
Yes, the wheezing old girl gave us some upsets and, especially in this last season, some quality football to watch. But the B(C)S never seemed to understand that its biggest problem lied in its attempts to devalue all remaining aspects of College Football. It was a mess whose time had come and gone. Unfortunately, its replacement seems to be on the disturbing path of being much, much worse.
In theory, it's simple: A 30(ish) person panel is going to meet weekly with the ultimate goal of selecting the "4 teams most worthy of competing for a National Championship." These four teams will then be placed in two of six bowls in a rotation (The Rose, Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, Chick-fil-A and Cotton) with the remaining 4 bowls receiving teams based on conference affiliations. In reality, it's the B(C)S+1. The "one" being the "Championship Game" played at the end. Beyond that, nothing has really changed. There's still the hegemony of the so-called "large" conferences on the Bowls with the highest payouts, there are still factors in place that limit the abilities of the so-called "mid-major" conferences to partake in the reindeer games (in this case, the guarantee that the team with the highest ranking amongst the Little 5 (American, MAC, Mountain West, C-USA & Sun Belt) gets to play in one of the newly termed "FCP" bowls) but now we've increased the possibility that worthy teams will be left out because the "Championship committee" is charged to find the "4 teams most worthy" (notice not the 4 "best" teams) to receive entrance into the playoff.
What is the distinction you ask? Simple.
Let's say the regular season for 2014 ends thusly:
1. Alabama
2. Oklahoma
3. Florida St.
4. Louisville
5. Baylor
6. Auburn
7. UT-Austin
According to the current system Alabama & OU would be meeting for the B(C)S Championship game. It would make sense than that, under the new system, the teams in the playoff would be 'Bama, OU, Florida St. and Louisville right?
Wrong. Under the new system the committee could decide what 4 teams are most deserving based on an arbitrary set of qualifications. Let's say that Florida State has another low strength of schedule, and that Baylor has a bad loss. Louisville, while undefeated, has even a worse SOS than Florida State. What's to keep the committee from bypassing them and grabbing Auburn (let's say with a loss to 'Bama) and UT-Austin (with just a close loss to OU on its resume) to round out the top 4?
Absolutely nothing. Think about that.
Best thing about FSU's win last night? This is an easy one. By beating Auburn the Seminoles have all but silenced Kentucky fans who live vicariously through other teams with that insipid S!-E!-C! chant. Claiming the wins of another school as your own is just sad. And yes, the SEC, although brilliant on the field, is devolving into a depressing mess off of it.
On Musberger: There are rumors circling around that last night's game could have been the final game that Musberger calls for ESPN. His contract is almost up and the four-letter network has a pretty deep talent pool behind him that is starting to get the promotion itch. Chris Fowler has been on the GameDay desk for quite a while now and has made no bones about his desire to move up to the Network's top spot. Rece Davis, behind Fowler, seems more than ready to make the jump to Saturday mornings, which could lead to an entire reshuffling of the show's line-up. If that's the case, Musberger will be missed. Despite his both broadcast opening gaffe, he pretty much nailed the call all night long.
On Corso: Before donning his Florida State gear Coach Corso made a comment that "We don't know how many more chances we'll get to do this." I think this means that he's about ready to move on. We know that he's had at least one stroke, and it's pretty clear by the end of each show that they are starting to grind on him. IF ESPN decides to tumble the dominoes with their announcers, it only makes sense that College GameDay gets a roster refresh as well.
On New Year's Day: I've stated before that the B(C)S destroyed one of College Football's greatest traditions by moving most games off of the traditional New Year's broadcast spot. Losing these games has destroyed the football experience on the New Year in the name of slot exclusivity etc. With all of the new sports networks (Fox Sports 1, CBSSports, NBCSports, etc.) It'd be nice to see some of the "non FCP" bowls stage a mini-revolt and sign some agreements with competing networks. As I've stated before, the best idea would be to limit the number of bowl games to around 15-20 and ensure that all of them are played within 72 hours of NYE w/none later than Jan 1st. It would give fans the clean ending that we used to have and it would cut down on the number of boring bowl games attended only by friends and family.
On Bowl Eligibility: Finally, I've stated this before, but 8 wins should be the minimum for bowl participation. However, it should not, in and of itself, be a guarantee of a bowl slot. If there aren't enough 8-win teams to fill all of the slots them the Bowls would be allowed to dip into the 7-win teams. If there are more than enough 8-win teams however, tough. Your school will get invited if you travel well. After all, it is about making money.
Showing posts with label College Football.. Show all posts
Showing posts with label College Football.. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 07, 2014
Friday, December 27, 2013
Today's Texas Bowl Exhibit A in Argument for Reducing Number of Bowl Games
Today's 27-21 victory by Syracuse over Minnesota in the Texas Bowl was arguably the most boring bowl game we've seen so far this year. Neither offense was any good, the coaching was atrocious, and the defenses were nothing spectacular despite having some good numbers. What marked this game was bad play, bad football and bad TV played out in front of a 1/3 full Reliant Stadium on dodgy turf in a spectacle that didn't do much to promote Houston, or Texas for that matter.
The argument FOR these games is simple, they're to reward the players for a successful season. Just remember, successful in the upside-down world of College Football is .500. Because of this there are 35 post-season games, all but one being meaningless. It's time to cut that number in half, raise the minimum standard of "bowl-eligible" to 8 wins and bring all of the games within 48 hours of New Year's Day again.
Back when bowl season was bowl season, you had 9-10 games on New Year's Day. The holiday would consist of waking up early in advance of your hangover, watching the Tournament of Roses parade and then spending the remainder of the day with multiple TV's or picture in picture trying to get in as much College Football as humanly possible. This was fun, it improved the remote control skills of many a growing boy and helped beer sales across the country.
Today, we're saddled with "Capital One Bowl Week" which, like Houston Restaurant Week, is really Bowl Week(s) and removes from us the ability to watch another, good, game while the dog is on another channel. So now we're saddled with 35 bowl games only 5 or 6 of which are going to be very good. We're stuck with teams of middling quality who only are in the game because the slot needed to be filled. Even worse, the population of bowl representatives with bad polyester coats is getting out of control. In many cases these are public-private partnerships which means that some of your tax dollars might have gone to buy Fred Hilden, President of the local Chamber of Commerce, a bad jacket that he's only going to end up spilling cocktail sauce on at the after party.
I would say that it's imperative this stops and we get back to bowl sanity but this is never going to happen because of one thing: Money. For the most part these bowls make tons of it and, for lack of anything better to do, people watch. Until we all ban together and tell the bowl committees that we're not going to put up with it any longer these things are never going to change.
I nominate the Texas Bowl to throw themselves on the sword first. Let's end this mess of a bowl and go back to just watching instead of rolling out the red carpet for a couple of major conference teams with sub-five hundred in-conference records. If nothing else, it'd be MORE world class to NOT have the game than it is to play it. And we all know how much Houston loves anything perceived to be world class right?
The argument FOR these games is simple, they're to reward the players for a successful season. Just remember, successful in the upside-down world of College Football is .500. Because of this there are 35 post-season games, all but one being meaningless. It's time to cut that number in half, raise the minimum standard of "bowl-eligible" to 8 wins and bring all of the games within 48 hours of New Year's Day again.
Back when bowl season was bowl season, you had 9-10 games on New Year's Day. The holiday would consist of waking up early in advance of your hangover, watching the Tournament of Roses parade and then spending the remainder of the day with multiple TV's or picture in picture trying to get in as much College Football as humanly possible. This was fun, it improved the remote control skills of many a growing boy and helped beer sales across the country.
Today, we're saddled with "Capital One Bowl Week" which, like Houston Restaurant Week, is really Bowl Week(s) and removes from us the ability to watch another, good, game while the dog is on another channel. So now we're saddled with 35 bowl games only 5 or 6 of which are going to be very good. We're stuck with teams of middling quality who only are in the game because the slot needed to be filled. Even worse, the population of bowl representatives with bad polyester coats is getting out of control. In many cases these are public-private partnerships which means that some of your tax dollars might have gone to buy Fred Hilden, President of the local Chamber of Commerce, a bad jacket that he's only going to end up spilling cocktail sauce on at the after party.
I would say that it's imperative this stops and we get back to bowl sanity but this is never going to happen because of one thing: Money. For the most part these bowls make tons of it and, for lack of anything better to do, people watch. Until we all ban together and tell the bowl committees that we're not going to put up with it any longer these things are never going to change.
I nominate the Texas Bowl to throw themselves on the sword first. Let's end this mess of a bowl and go back to just watching instead of rolling out the red carpet for a couple of major conference teams with sub-five hundred in-conference records. If nothing else, it'd be MORE world class to NOT have the game than it is to play it. And we all know how much Houston loves anything perceived to be world class right?
Monday, December 02, 2013
College Football (Week 14) Results
Any way you look at it Week 14 of the 2013 College Football season was one of the best weekends in recent memory. So many things to discuss but, first: I went 5-3 straight up (now at 87-40 for the season) and 4-4 against the spread (achingly close to .500 at 62-63-1). There were a couple of games that hurt me (Auburn, USC) and some games I got close to right (Duke). Despite all of that the Iron Bowl ending, the ending to "The Game" and just a very strong scheduled weekend all the way around made not winning A-OK with me.
Without further ado:
1. - The Iron Bowl - With all of the talk surrounding the dominance of 'Bama and Saban's advantages I too will admit to being sucked in. I probably should have picked 'Bama to win, but not cover. Rivalry games are like that from time to time. And what an ending.
2. - The Game - I have to admit, I've been more pessimistic about this game since Rich Rod took over and bathed Michigan in an inglorious series of losing seasons. That said, I'm extremely proud of the team for sucking it up and putting up a (literal, at times) fight. I don't blame Hoke for the decision to go for two, I think it was the right call, I do blame Al Borges for a terrible play call that resulted in an INT. My hope next year is that Hoke stays but is forced to make changes at coordinator.
3. - Rice - Congratulations to the Owls who will host Marshall in the C-USA championship game. I've stated all year that they would be in the running for this, and they have a good team that is capable of knocking off Marshall, but will need some good bounces to do so.
4. - Duke - How about the Dukies? Not only did they win the closest thing they have to a football rivalry game (Duke/NC is really a basketball rival) but they win the ACC Coastal Division and have a date with Florida State for the Championship. The thought is that Florida State will roll to victory, but I've a feeling the Blue Devils might be able to keep it a little closer (in losing) than the experts think. David Cutcliffe for coach of the year.
5. - UCLA/USC - I'm a little surprised that UCLA came out and dominated USC as they did. I thought the Trojans were starting to roll and would win. You can't say enough about the resilience of the UCLA Bruins or the toughness of USC this year. Ed Orgeron should be the USC head coach next season, but I've a feeling the Trojan brain trust is going to mess this up.
6. - Missouri - Coming into this season aTm was given all the hype as a potential participant in the SEC Championship game while Missouri was an afterthought. Big mistake. Last year's Mizzou team faced a ton of injuries akin to what Georgia faced this year. They were a good team, with a good offense that played solid defense as well. Compare that to aTm which has suddenly lost the public spotlight due to their seeming inability to make a tackle. Add into that the weaker side of the SEC and Mizzou is much better positioned than aTm to continue its winning ways.
And finally......
7. - The B(C)S - There's so much to say about this that I'm not sure where to start. Let's start here: If anything this final year has the potential to illustrate just how terrible the system has been from the start. Open to politicking and manipulation it was no better than the former polling system in determining a champion, and in many ways much, much worse. We got a peek at just how much worse in 2011 when Nick Saban manipulated his ballot to push his team into the Championship game. And this season there's room for even more chicanery. It's also led to fewer inter-conference games, which has led to the belief that the SEC has a far greater gap over the remaining conferences than I think they really do.
Of course, we're still a LONG way from knowing anything for certain, but if FSU and OSU remain undefeated then that should be your B(C)S Championship game, no Miracle at Jordan Hare if and's or but's about it. If Auburn wanted in, they should have beaten South Carolina, period.
That's not to say that the proposed "fix" of a 4 team playoff would be any better. Looking at this year, who would be #4? And before you default to "Bama" think about if Mizzou beats Auburn, if Michigan State beats Ohio State, and then there' Okie State and the eventual PAC12 champion to consider. There are a lot of theories as to how to determine the champion but the only one that makes sense is an 16 team playoff with every conference champion and 5 at-large bids. Yes, you can make the argument that the C-USA, MAC, Sun Belt, Mountain West and Amway champions don't deserve to be there, but you can also make a case that the Big Twen and B1G champions don't either. This year, with Florida State, is one of the few years that the ACC Champion has obviously been worthy of inclusion, and there have been years that the PAC12 wasn't worthy either. And while it's easy to look at the SEC every year and say they're the best in the land, this was not always the case and won't always be the case in the future. While there's little chance the lesser conferences will win, there's zero chance right now that they will. Using the same logic March Madness would be a tussle between the major conferences every year and most of the public would have no idea that Butler, Gonzaga and VCU even exist.
What keeps the smaller conferences out of the B(C)S is money pure and simple. There's no other way to honestly state it. The idea that, by including the small schools in a playoff system, you're somehow going to reduce that pot of money is ridiculous. The television and advertising revenues alone would ensure profitability. Actual butts in the seats has very little to do with it. All of the hyperbole regarding students missing classes is just so much gibberish spoken in a world where reality is excused for some fantasyland argument making. While many feel the B(C)S controversy has been a good thing for College Football, I can assure you it hasn't. Television ratings for the non-championship bowls have been plummeting as the public just doesn't care. Were these games part of a win-or-go-home playoff system however suddenly the public would care, and that's the best thing about it. Always has been, always will be.
Top 5
1. Florida State
2. Ohio State
3. Auburn
4. Alabama
5. Missouri
Championship week is coming. Then, in a changeup, I'll do a bowl Pick 'em based on the lines. After my rough year I'm going to need a good bowl season to pull into plus .500 territory.
Without further ado:
1. - The Iron Bowl - With all of the talk surrounding the dominance of 'Bama and Saban's advantages I too will admit to being sucked in. I probably should have picked 'Bama to win, but not cover. Rivalry games are like that from time to time. And what an ending.
2. - The Game - I have to admit, I've been more pessimistic about this game since Rich Rod took over and bathed Michigan in an inglorious series of losing seasons. That said, I'm extremely proud of the team for sucking it up and putting up a (literal, at times) fight. I don't blame Hoke for the decision to go for two, I think it was the right call, I do blame Al Borges for a terrible play call that resulted in an INT. My hope next year is that Hoke stays but is forced to make changes at coordinator.
3. - Rice - Congratulations to the Owls who will host Marshall in the C-USA championship game. I've stated all year that they would be in the running for this, and they have a good team that is capable of knocking off Marshall, but will need some good bounces to do so.
4. - Duke - How about the Dukies? Not only did they win the closest thing they have to a football rivalry game (Duke/NC is really a basketball rival) but they win the ACC Coastal Division and have a date with Florida State for the Championship. The thought is that Florida State will roll to victory, but I've a feeling the Blue Devils might be able to keep it a little closer (in losing) than the experts think. David Cutcliffe for coach of the year.
5. - UCLA/USC - I'm a little surprised that UCLA came out and dominated USC as they did. I thought the Trojans were starting to roll and would win. You can't say enough about the resilience of the UCLA Bruins or the toughness of USC this year. Ed Orgeron should be the USC head coach next season, but I've a feeling the Trojan brain trust is going to mess this up.
6. - Missouri - Coming into this season aTm was given all the hype as a potential participant in the SEC Championship game while Missouri was an afterthought. Big mistake. Last year's Mizzou team faced a ton of injuries akin to what Georgia faced this year. They were a good team, with a good offense that played solid defense as well. Compare that to aTm which has suddenly lost the public spotlight due to their seeming inability to make a tackle. Add into that the weaker side of the SEC and Mizzou is much better positioned than aTm to continue its winning ways.
And finally......
7. - The B(C)S - There's so much to say about this that I'm not sure where to start. Let's start here: If anything this final year has the potential to illustrate just how terrible the system has been from the start. Open to politicking and manipulation it was no better than the former polling system in determining a champion, and in many ways much, much worse. We got a peek at just how much worse in 2011 when Nick Saban manipulated his ballot to push his team into the Championship game. And this season there's room for even more chicanery. It's also led to fewer inter-conference games, which has led to the belief that the SEC has a far greater gap over the remaining conferences than I think they really do.
Of course, we're still a LONG way from knowing anything for certain, but if FSU and OSU remain undefeated then that should be your B(C)S Championship game, no Miracle at Jordan Hare if and's or but's about it. If Auburn wanted in, they should have beaten South Carolina, period.
That's not to say that the proposed "fix" of a 4 team playoff would be any better. Looking at this year, who would be #4? And before you default to "Bama" think about if Mizzou beats Auburn, if Michigan State beats Ohio State, and then there' Okie State and the eventual PAC12 champion to consider. There are a lot of theories as to how to determine the champion but the only one that makes sense is an 16 team playoff with every conference champion and 5 at-large bids. Yes, you can make the argument that the C-USA, MAC, Sun Belt, Mountain West and Amway champions don't deserve to be there, but you can also make a case that the Big Twen and B1G champions don't either. This year, with Florida State, is one of the few years that the ACC Champion has obviously been worthy of inclusion, and there have been years that the PAC12 wasn't worthy either. And while it's easy to look at the SEC every year and say they're the best in the land, this was not always the case and won't always be the case in the future. While there's little chance the lesser conferences will win, there's zero chance right now that they will. Using the same logic March Madness would be a tussle between the major conferences every year and most of the public would have no idea that Butler, Gonzaga and VCU even exist.
What keeps the smaller conferences out of the B(C)S is money pure and simple. There's no other way to honestly state it. The idea that, by including the small schools in a playoff system, you're somehow going to reduce that pot of money is ridiculous. The television and advertising revenues alone would ensure profitability. Actual butts in the seats has very little to do with it. All of the hyperbole regarding students missing classes is just so much gibberish spoken in a world where reality is excused for some fantasyland argument making. While many feel the B(C)S controversy has been a good thing for College Football, I can assure you it hasn't. Television ratings for the non-championship bowls have been plummeting as the public just doesn't care. Were these games part of a win-or-go-home playoff system however suddenly the public would care, and that's the best thing about it. Always has been, always will be.
Top 5
1. Florida State
2. Ohio State
3. Auburn
4. Alabama
5. Missouri
Championship week is coming. Then, in a changeup, I'll do a bowl Pick 'em based on the lines. After my rough year I'm going to need a good bowl season to pull into plus .500 territory.
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
College Football (Week 14) Predictions
Rivalry Week.
1. Texas Tech @ University of Texas-Austin(-4.5) - TT 17 UT-Austin 24 - Tech is in a free-fall, UT is not very good but better than the Red Raiders
2. Ole Mississippi(-3) @ Mississippi State - Ole Miss 35 MSSt 10 - When you fall behind your in-state rival, coaches get fired.
3. Duke @ North Carolina(-5) - Duke 41 UNC 31 - Picking the upset here. I think Vegas has this line all wrong.
4. Clemson @ South Carolina(-5.5) - Clem 27 USC 28 - I think Spurrier and comapny win, but don't cover.
5. Texas Agricultural and Mechanical University @ Missouri(-4.5) - aTm 20 Mizzou 45 - I'm loathe to pick the Aggies (or any team) with a defense that pathetic
6. University of California - Los Angeles @ University of Southern California(-4) - UCLA 24 USC 27 - Remove the interim title from Ed Orgeron now
7. University of Alabama(-11) @ Auburn University - Bama 35 Auburn 23 - Saban has had two weeks to prepare for Auburn (no Chattanooga doesn't count) I expect the Tide to roll.
And finally.......
8. "The Game" The Ohio State University(-14.5) @ The University of Michigan - I just can't do it. Michigan is going to get rolled and OSU is going to cover by a LOT. Blue is now facing the real possibility that it's greatest rival is leaving it behind.
Oh OK.....OSU 35 Michigan 3.
Dammit.
1. Texas Tech @ University of Texas-Austin(-4.5) - TT 17 UT-Austin 24 - Tech is in a free-fall, UT is not very good but better than the Red Raiders
2. Ole Mississippi(-3) @ Mississippi State - Ole Miss 35 MSSt 10 - When you fall behind your in-state rival, coaches get fired.
3. Duke @ North Carolina(-5) - Duke 41 UNC 31 - Picking the upset here. I think Vegas has this line all wrong.
4. Clemson @ South Carolina(-5.5) - Clem 27 USC 28 - I think Spurrier and comapny win, but don't cover.
5. Texas Agricultural and Mechanical University @ Missouri(-4.5) - aTm 20 Mizzou 45 - I'm loathe to pick the Aggies (or any team) with a defense that pathetic
6. University of California - Los Angeles @ University of Southern California(-4) - UCLA 24 USC 27 - Remove the interim title from Ed Orgeron now
7. University of Alabama(-11) @ Auburn University - Bama 35 Auburn 23 - Saban has had two weeks to prepare for Auburn (no Chattanooga doesn't count) I expect the Tide to roll.
And finally.......
8. "The Game" The Ohio State University(-14.5) @ The University of Michigan - I just can't do it. Michigan is going to get rolled and OSU is going to cover by a LOT. Blue is now facing the real possibility that it's greatest rival is leaving it behind.
Oh OK.....OSU 35 Michigan 3.
Dammit.
Monday, November 25, 2013
College Football (Week 13) Results
Utterly, totally average. That was my week 13 results where I went 5-5 straight up and 6-4 against the spread. This leaves me at 82-37 SO and very close to .500 ATS at 58-59-1. If ONLY I would leave the Michigan game out of my tally, but that wouldn't be fair. Some very interesting happenings this week in College Football so, without further ado.....
Takeaways from the College Football Weekend that was.....
1. The "hot coach in waiting" shine that was on Kevin Sumlin has dulled considerably due to his seeming inability to produce a competent defense. The Aggies have a LOT of talent coming in next year, it'd be a shame to waste it.
2. Anyone know what's happened to Oregon? If so, can you please call the Ducks and let them know? They got housed by an utterly average Arizona team.
3. OU has to be the most confusing team (for me) in the country this year. When I pick against them they look great. When I pick them they look awful. Not that it has anything to do with it but Sooner fans should be happy to note that my early lean in Bedlam is strong OSU.
4. Baylor is not a "fraud". They just ran into a Cowboy's team that's playing very well right now. People forget that OSU was the consensus pre-season pick to win the Big Twen title.
5. If Duke beats North Carolina this weekend, they play Florida State in the ACC Championship game.
6. If Duke beats North Carolina this weekend, they play Florida State in the ACC Championship game. (felt it needed to be said twice) I hope they do because, to be honest, that's the most compelling game. Also, David Cutcliffe for coach of the year.
7. Quick peek at FCS land. What in the world has happened to the Sam Houston State Bearkats? They went from one of the top teams in the Country to a middle of the pack Southland Conference team in 3 weeks. This team is struggling right now. Fortunately, it doesn't look like they are on-pace to lose to North Dakota State for the third straight year in the finals. They've made the playoffs but they had better turn it on soon.
8. As I've said all season long, it appears Rice is going to be playing in the C-USA Championship Game. Low-listener talk radio types have downplayed this all season long, but winning a conference title is nothing to sneeze at, no matter the conference.
9. Well, the UH Cougars will go bowling, but they've struggled against the top teams in the American. Fortunately, for UH football not for the conference, two of these teams won't be around next year. Still, there's reason for optimism on behalf of Coog football. You couldn't say that last year.
And finally.......
10. - It's looking more and more like the end of the Brady Hoke era in Michigan football, and I'm not ashamed to say that I'm sad about that. I believed in Brady when he was first hired and, although I was never a Denard Robinson fan, I thought the team was getting the talent to compete. Unfortunately, as Saturday's loss to Iowa showed, despite having OK talent the coaching is sub-par. It's possible that Hoke keeps his job w/Al Borges getting the heave-ho, but I'm not sure. The fans are still coming to the games but I've a sinking feeling Saturday's "the Game" game is going to be a mismatch with Ohio State running away and hiding. Losing 2 out of 3 to Michigan State, 2 out of 3 to Iowa and 2 out of 3 to Ohio State doesn't cut it at Michigan. Also, if this game against Ohio State isn't competitive (and there's every indication that it won't be) Blue is going to have to face the very real possibility that Ohio State is leaving them behind. (Which I believe is happening....again)
Top 5:
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Auburn
5. Missouri
Dead n' buried: The Heisman chances of Johnny Manziel and Marcus Mariota.
Takeaways from the College Football Weekend that was.....
1. The "hot coach in waiting" shine that was on Kevin Sumlin has dulled considerably due to his seeming inability to produce a competent defense. The Aggies have a LOT of talent coming in next year, it'd be a shame to waste it.
2. Anyone know what's happened to Oregon? If so, can you please call the Ducks and let them know? They got housed by an utterly average Arizona team.
3. OU has to be the most confusing team (for me) in the country this year. When I pick against them they look great. When I pick them they look awful. Not that it has anything to do with it but Sooner fans should be happy to note that my early lean in Bedlam is strong OSU.
4. Baylor is not a "fraud". They just ran into a Cowboy's team that's playing very well right now. People forget that OSU was the consensus pre-season pick to win the Big Twen title.
5. If Duke beats North Carolina this weekend, they play Florida State in the ACC Championship game.
6. If Duke beats North Carolina this weekend, they play Florida State in the ACC Championship game. (felt it needed to be said twice) I hope they do because, to be honest, that's the most compelling game. Also, David Cutcliffe for coach of the year.
7. Quick peek at FCS land. What in the world has happened to the Sam Houston State Bearkats? They went from one of the top teams in the Country to a middle of the pack Southland Conference team in 3 weeks. This team is struggling right now. Fortunately, it doesn't look like they are on-pace to lose to North Dakota State for the third straight year in the finals. They've made the playoffs but they had better turn it on soon.
8. As I've said all season long, it appears Rice is going to be playing in the C-USA Championship Game. Low-listener talk radio types have downplayed this all season long, but winning a conference title is nothing to sneeze at, no matter the conference.
9. Well, the UH Cougars will go bowling, but they've struggled against the top teams in the American. Fortunately, for UH football not for the conference, two of these teams won't be around next year. Still, there's reason for optimism on behalf of Coog football. You couldn't say that last year.
And finally.......
10. - It's looking more and more like the end of the Brady Hoke era in Michigan football, and I'm not ashamed to say that I'm sad about that. I believed in Brady when he was first hired and, although I was never a Denard Robinson fan, I thought the team was getting the talent to compete. Unfortunately, as Saturday's loss to Iowa showed, despite having OK talent the coaching is sub-par. It's possible that Hoke keeps his job w/Al Borges getting the heave-ho, but I'm not sure. The fans are still coming to the games but I've a sinking feeling Saturday's "the Game" game is going to be a mismatch with Ohio State running away and hiding. Losing 2 out of 3 to Michigan State, 2 out of 3 to Iowa and 2 out of 3 to Ohio State doesn't cut it at Michigan. Also, if this game against Ohio State isn't competitive (and there's every indication that it won't be) Blue is going to have to face the very real possibility that Ohio State is leaving them behind. (Which I believe is happening....again)
Top 5:
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Auburn
5. Missouri
Dead n' buried: The Heisman chances of Johnny Manziel and Marcus Mariota.
Friday, November 22, 2013
College Football Predictions (Week 13)
Unlike the NY Jets, I have high hopes of stringing together back to back solid weeks......
1. Cincinatti @ Houston (-3) Cincy 42 UH 41 - Expect a shoot-out between two pretty good offenses with mediocre defenses.
2. OKlahoma @ Kansas State (-5) OU 28 KSt 35 - K State has gotten a LOT better since the beginning of the season. Don't read too much into OU's shellacking of a horrible Iowa State team
3. Illinois (-7) @ Purdon't Ill 10 PU 9 - No matter who wins in this game, College Football loses. Two horrible teams.
4. Mississippi State (-1.5) @ Akransas - MsSt 27 Ark 10 - Since Bielema's wife did the "Karma" tweet the Razorbacks have been a mess. Karma.
5. Brigham Young (-1) @ Notre Dame - BYU 24 ND 10 - Thus ending the fallacy that Notre Dame is a good team this year.
6. Texas Agricultural and Mechanical University @ Louisiana State University(-5) - aTm 35 LSU 38 - As good as Manziel is, that aTm defense is truly awful.
7. Arizona State University(-2.5) vs. University of California - Los Angeles - Sparky 24 UCLA 27 - The line notwithstanding, I think this is a horrible spot for coach douchebag and the fighting Devils. Plus, I think UCLA has a good team.
8. Missouri(-2.5) @ Ole Mississippi - Mizzou 38 Ole Miss 35 - I think the line is about right. Wouldn't be surprised to see an upset but I'm not picking one.
9. Baylor (-9.5) @ Oklahoma State - Bay 63 OSU 56 - I expect a high-scoring, but pretty close, affair in Stillwater. Again, wouldn't be surprised to see an upset but I'm not picking it.
And finally.......
10. Michigan @ Iowa(-6.5) - Blue 35 Iowa 20 - No, I don't think that this is going to happen, but I'm not picking against Big Blue so I'll take the spot on my record if it doesn't happen. Of course, I'd never lay money on a Michigan game anyway so there's that. I am still counting Blue against my record however, which is part of what's keeping me below .500
This is that week, prior to rivalry week, where there are a lot of dog games. Fortunately, there are some good games on tap as well. Avoid 'Bama vs. Chattanooga and look further down the SEC rankings for some stiff match-ups.
Dead n' buried: Jameis Winston's Heisman hopes.
1. Cincinatti @ Houston (-3) Cincy 42 UH 41 - Expect a shoot-out between two pretty good offenses with mediocre defenses.
2. OKlahoma @ Kansas State (-5) OU 28 KSt 35 - K State has gotten a LOT better since the beginning of the season. Don't read too much into OU's shellacking of a horrible Iowa State team
3. Illinois (-7) @ Purdon't Ill 10 PU 9 - No matter who wins in this game, College Football loses. Two horrible teams.
4. Mississippi State (-1.5) @ Akransas - MsSt 27 Ark 10 - Since Bielema's wife did the "Karma" tweet the Razorbacks have been a mess. Karma.
5. Brigham Young (-1) @ Notre Dame - BYU 24 ND 10 - Thus ending the fallacy that Notre Dame is a good team this year.
6. Texas Agricultural and Mechanical University @ Louisiana State University(-5) - aTm 35 LSU 38 - As good as Manziel is, that aTm defense is truly awful.
7. Arizona State University(-2.5) vs. University of California - Los Angeles - Sparky 24 UCLA 27 - The line notwithstanding, I think this is a horrible spot for coach douchebag and the fighting Devils. Plus, I think UCLA has a good team.
8. Missouri(-2.5) @ Ole Mississippi - Mizzou 38 Ole Miss 35 - I think the line is about right. Wouldn't be surprised to see an upset but I'm not picking one.
9. Baylor (-9.5) @ Oklahoma State - Bay 63 OSU 56 - I expect a high-scoring, but pretty close, affair in Stillwater. Again, wouldn't be surprised to see an upset but I'm not picking it.
And finally.......
10. Michigan @ Iowa(-6.5) - Blue 35 Iowa 20 - No, I don't think that this is going to happen, but I'm not picking against Big Blue so I'll take the spot on my record if it doesn't happen. Of course, I'd never lay money on a Michigan game anyway so there's that. I am still counting Blue against my record however, which is part of what's keeping me below .500
This is that week, prior to rivalry week, where there are a lot of dog games. Fortunately, there are some good games on tap as well. Avoid 'Bama vs. Chattanooga and look further down the SEC rankings for some stiff match-ups.
Dead n' buried: Jameis Winston's Heisman hopes.
Monday, November 18, 2013
College Football Week 12 (results)
It's about time. After stumbling along for most of the season I finally had the week I was looking for. Last week I went 7-3 straight up but 7-3 ATS which, by any measure, is pretty strong. If you have made money betting against me (a sound strategy) you took it on the chin last week. This leaves me 77-32 straight-up this year and 52-55-1 against the spread. If I can finish the season with just a few solid weeks I'll be able to finish over .500 for the year.
Let's get to the takeaways:
1. - Alabama is still number one, but they're looking shakier. I qualify that with the huge caveat that 'Bama always looks sub-par coming out of the LSU game. It's become such an emotional high for them that it's bound to happen. And still, there's this: If Florida State and Alabama played this Saturday you'd have to give the Seminoles the edge. Give Saban a month and a half to prepare.....?
2. - Dear Tech fans.....Shhhhh. Somewhere in the 2nd half of Baylor's dismantling of the Tech defense I started hearing carping about the officials. Tech fan, that game could have been officiated by Tech alums and Baylor still would have rolled you by 20. Much the better team this year.
3. - OU's offense, who knew? I said in my picks and later on Twitter that I didn't think OU could SCORE 24 much less win by 24 1/2. Ooops. I think this has more to do with the poor quality of Iowa State than it does with OU's stout offense however.
4. - We can finally put the "Longhorns are back!" myth to bed. Anytime they play a good team, they get rolled. OSU is a good, but not great team. All this did was prove my suspicions right that Texas was the worst conference leading team in the Country.
5. - How do you not pull the interim tag off of Ed Orgeron? Conversely, hopefully AD's (and NFL GM's) everywhere understand just how bad of a coach Layne Kiffin really is.
6. - All hail Duke Football! The Dukies are 8-2, and hold the lead in the Coastal Division of the ACC. Cutcliffe for coach of the year.
7. - The Iron Bowl is now must watch TV.
8. - UCLA/USC just became must-watch TV.
9. - No ESPN, the B1G is NOT a FCS conference without Ohio State. It's an argument that's ridiculous on its face, but one that ESPN is making because they think it's "controversial". What it is stupid. Every conference has their bottom feeders, every one. If you don't get that then you're not paying attention.
And finally......
10. - Hail to the Victors! (barely) Give them this, Big Blue finally found a rush game. And although they still struggled against a not-very-good Northwestern team it showed improvement, something fans of Blue really needed to see.
Top 5 teams:
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Baylor
5. Auburn
Clemson is on deck at six.
Conference Rankings:
1. SEC
2. Pac12
3. ACC
4. B1G
5. American
6. Big Twen
7. Sunbelt
8. MAC
9. C-USA
It's getting closer between the PAC12 and the SEC, but it's going to be hard for me to think differently until someone dethrones the champ. Call if SEC bias or whatever you want, but I believe 8 straight titles says something.
Interesting line of next week: Wisconsin(-15) at Minnesota. I like the Badgers here, but I don't like them at -15 on the road.
Also: How in the world is ASU getting 2 1/2 AT UCLA?
Until next week.
Let's get to the takeaways:
1. - Alabama is still number one, but they're looking shakier. I qualify that with the huge caveat that 'Bama always looks sub-par coming out of the LSU game. It's become such an emotional high for them that it's bound to happen. And still, there's this: If Florida State and Alabama played this Saturday you'd have to give the Seminoles the edge. Give Saban a month and a half to prepare.....?
2. - Dear Tech fans.....Shhhhh. Somewhere in the 2nd half of Baylor's dismantling of the Tech defense I started hearing carping about the officials. Tech fan, that game could have been officiated by Tech alums and Baylor still would have rolled you by 20. Much the better team this year.
3. - OU's offense, who knew? I said in my picks and later on Twitter that I didn't think OU could SCORE 24 much less win by 24 1/2. Ooops. I think this has more to do with the poor quality of Iowa State than it does with OU's stout offense however.
4. - We can finally put the "Longhorns are back!" myth to bed. Anytime they play a good team, they get rolled. OSU is a good, but not great team. All this did was prove my suspicions right that Texas was the worst conference leading team in the Country.
5. - How do you not pull the interim tag off of Ed Orgeron? Conversely, hopefully AD's (and NFL GM's) everywhere understand just how bad of a coach Layne Kiffin really is.
6. - All hail Duke Football! The Dukies are 8-2, and hold the lead in the Coastal Division of the ACC. Cutcliffe for coach of the year.
7. - The Iron Bowl is now must watch TV.
8. - UCLA/USC just became must-watch TV.
9. - No ESPN, the B1G is NOT a FCS conference without Ohio State. It's an argument that's ridiculous on its face, but one that ESPN is making because they think it's "controversial". What it is stupid. Every conference has their bottom feeders, every one. If you don't get that then you're not paying attention.
And finally......
10. - Hail to the Victors! (barely) Give them this, Big Blue finally found a rush game. And although they still struggled against a not-very-good Northwestern team it showed improvement, something fans of Blue really needed to see.
Top 5 teams:
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Baylor
5. Auburn
Clemson is on deck at six.
Conference Rankings:
1. SEC
2. Pac12
3. ACC
4. B1G
5. American
6. Big Twen
7. Sunbelt
8. MAC
9. C-USA
It's getting closer between the PAC12 and the SEC, but it's going to be hard for me to think differently until someone dethrones the champ. Call if SEC bias or whatever you want, but I believe 8 straight titles says something.
Interesting line of next week: Wisconsin(-15) at Minnesota. I like the Badgers here, but I don't like them at -15 on the road.
Also: How in the world is ASU getting 2 1/2 AT UCLA?
Until next week.
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
College Football Predictions (Week 12)
Some odd lines this week, which either means Vegas thinks the public is out of line or they think they know something everyone else doesn't.
Without further ado......
1. Washington @ University of California Los Angeles(-2.5) - WU 13 UCLA 35 - On the road, away from their new digs, the Huskies are not the same team. UCLA has some tough losses, but they're talented and I think Hundley is getting better and better.
2. Cincinatti @ Rutgers(Even) - Ciny 42 RU 14 - Rutgers is falling apart right now. Do people not remember what UH did to them at home?
3. Iowa State @ Oklahoma(-24.5) - ISU 14 OU 24 - No offense to my OU fan friends but, given the state of this offense, how can you even predict OU to score more than 24 points in any game right now? Much less cover by 24.5? No way.
4. Georgia @ Auburn(-4) - UGA 17 Aub 42 - Lost in all of the injury talk surrounding Georgia is this fact: The Bulldog's defense has not been stellar this year. This is not the same Chizik coached confused Tiger mess from last year.
5. Miami(-3) @ Duke - The U 24 Duke 27 - There's no way I'd bet this game, but I'm going to go ahead and call the upset for the Dukies because it's basketball season, and this team deserves to be paid attention to after years of struggle. Cutcliffe for coach of the year.
6. Oklahoma State University(-3) @ University of Texas-Austin - OSU 34 UT-Austin 17 - I tried to give the fighting Mack's a chance, but after that last showing against West Virginia? OSU cruises.
7. Texas Tech @ Baylor(-27) - TTech 17 Baylor 52 - 27 feels about right in this game. Tech is falling apart and Art Briles' team is firing on all cylinders.
8. Stanford(-3.5) @ USC - Stan 27 USC 13 - USC is playing better of late, but Stanford is (by far) the best team in a very good PAC12
9. Houston @ Louisville(-15.5) - UH 42 Loserville 35 - I about dropped my coffee when I saw this line open up at 17.5 for Loserville. Did the odds makers not watch both these teams play common opponents? I think Houston wins here and their turnover happy defense is going to give Bridgewater fits.
And finally.......
Michigan @ Northwestern(-3) - Blue 13 NW 35 - A better line here would be O/U for Michigan's rushing yards, which I would set at 20. Sadly, given the sorry state of the team right now I'd have to take the under. I'm not sure what's happened, but Hoke & Co had better fix it quick or Michigan could be looking at a coaching change, again. C'mon Blue, get it together.
I need a big week here to have a shot at finishing the season better than .500 ATS. A couple of these upsets go my way and that could happen. Good luck.
Without further ado......
1. Washington @ University of California Los Angeles(-2.5) - WU 13 UCLA 35 - On the road, away from their new digs, the Huskies are not the same team. UCLA has some tough losses, but they're talented and I think Hundley is getting better and better.
2. Cincinatti @ Rutgers(Even) - Ciny 42 RU 14 - Rutgers is falling apart right now. Do people not remember what UH did to them at home?
3. Iowa State @ Oklahoma(-24.5) - ISU 14 OU 24 - No offense to my OU fan friends but, given the state of this offense, how can you even predict OU to score more than 24 points in any game right now? Much less cover by 24.5? No way.
4. Georgia @ Auburn(-4) - UGA 17 Aub 42 - Lost in all of the injury talk surrounding Georgia is this fact: The Bulldog's defense has not been stellar this year. This is not the same Chizik coached confused Tiger mess from last year.
5. Miami(-3) @ Duke - The U 24 Duke 27 - There's no way I'd bet this game, but I'm going to go ahead and call the upset for the Dukies because it's basketball season, and this team deserves to be paid attention to after years of struggle. Cutcliffe for coach of the year.
6. Oklahoma State University(-3) @ University of Texas-Austin - OSU 34 UT-Austin 17 - I tried to give the fighting Mack's a chance, but after that last showing against West Virginia? OSU cruises.
7. Texas Tech @ Baylor(-27) - TTech 17 Baylor 52 - 27 feels about right in this game. Tech is falling apart and Art Briles' team is firing on all cylinders.
8. Stanford(-3.5) @ USC - Stan 27 USC 13 - USC is playing better of late, but Stanford is (by far) the best team in a very good PAC12
9. Houston @ Louisville(-15.5) - UH 42 Loserville 35 - I about dropped my coffee when I saw this line open up at 17.5 for Loserville. Did the odds makers not watch both these teams play common opponents? I think Houston wins here and their turnover happy defense is going to give Bridgewater fits.
And finally.......
Michigan @ Northwestern(-3) - Blue 13 NW 35 - A better line here would be O/U for Michigan's rushing yards, which I would set at 20. Sadly, given the sorry state of the team right now I'd have to take the under. I'm not sure what's happened, but Hoke & Co had better fix it quick or Michigan could be looking at a coaching change, again. C'mon Blue, get it together.
I need a big week here to have a shot at finishing the season better than .500 ATS. A couple of these upsets go my way and that could happen. Good luck.
Monday, November 11, 2013
College Football Week 11 (Results) "Meh"
At some point, my feeling that I have a handle on this season is going to pay off. Straight up I'm fine, clocking in at a blah 6-4 this week and 70-29 for the season. That's not too bad. Against the spread however I had a blah week at 5-5 which leaves me at 45-52-1 for the season. Considering the minimal time and effort I put into this, that's not bad, but I'd sure like to have a winning week before the year ends. Maybe these last few weeks and bowl season can pull me out of the negative?
Without further ado: Let's take a look at the week that was......
1. 'Bama. The LSU game was much closer than the 38-17 score might indicate. The fact is LSU is a deeply flawed team under Coach Miles. But this year's Bama team is flawed as well, especially on defense. Good passing teams give the Tide fits. FSU is a good passing team, with athleticism and a good defense. I don't think the Seminoles are likely to beat Alabama, but I think they might at least have a chance should they make it to the B(C)S Title Game.
2. Oregon. My gut feeling here is that Oregon was exposed. But then you have to realize that Stanford is a lot better than I (and many others) thought they were. That loss to Utah is a puzzler, but they got all over Mariota and the final score of 20-26 doesn't reflect just how dominating their performance really was. Is this the end of Oregon in the National Championship conversation? Possibly, for many years to come.
3. Baylor. This is going to anger a LOT of Baylor alums but the fairest question to ask about the Bears is whether they are this good, or is the Big Twen this bad? They trounced a formerly highly regarded OU team 41-12 in a game that wasn't that close. The problem is, OU's offense is abysmal which might have made Baylor's defense look pretty good. You can write off Baylor's slow start to nerves. This is the first time they've been in a game this big this season.
4. Texas. Wouldn't you know it, the week I decide to believe UT-Austin has turned it around they go out and lay a stinker against West Virginia. Yes, they won 47-40, but they had to go to overtime and looked less than impressive in doing so. I said at the time (on Twitter) that this UT-Austin team has to be one of the worst in the country that's leading a conference. I still stand by that sentiment.
5. Houston. I have to hand it to the Coogs, they played a lot better than I thought they would, only losing 14-19 to a very strong UCF team. Amazingly, the Louisville vs. UH line opened up at -17 1/2 Louisville on Sunday. If you're of a gaming persuasion I'd suggest jumping all over that line before it moves down. Based on their play against UCF, I'm going to have a hard time not picking UH to pull the upset here.
6. Duke. The Blue Devils are 7-2. Let me say that again: The Blue Devils are 7-2. Congratulations coach Cutcliffe.
7. Florida. Some people are questioning whether or not it's sane for Will Muschamp to be on the hot seat. I've seen Florida play before their QB Driskoll went down with injury. Yes, it is a fair question.
8. Florida State. I'm not sure if he has a prayer of winning the Heisman, but Jameis Winston might be the best player in College Football. For that matter, Florida State might be the best team in college football right now. Of course, they could look much worse against Bama if Saban has a month and a half to prepare for them.
9. Notre Dame. So they will NOT be in contention for a B(C)S bowl. That this below-average team needed to lose to Pitt for people to realize that illustrates just how bad a system the B(C)S was.
And finally......
10. Michigan. Aw Blue. Saturday's debacle against Nebraska now means that Michigan has rushed for -69 yards over the last two weeks. That's exactly 69 yards less than Bo Schembechler has rushing over that span of time. He probably gets one more year to turn it around, but Hoke and Co. are increasingly looking like a program in decline. This must change.
Top 5:
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Baylor
5. Stanford
Misc. - Eastern Michigan finally fired Ron English on Friday. They did this because the AD reportedly saw a film with English using gay slurs in a speech to his players. In my view this is a coward's way out. Ron English was fired because he was 1-8 this year and 11-46 overall.
Top Conferences:
1. SEC - Until someone knocks them off.
2. PAC12 - Nipping at the SEC's heels
3. ACC - Weak at the bottom, but pretty solid at the top.
4. B1G - Looking better and better every week.
5. American - UCF, UH, Louisville and Cincinnati are better than Baylor, UT-Austin, OSU & OU right now.
6. Big Twen - Down year but this could be the new norm for a horribly ran conference that's in danger of being torn apart.
Week 12 picks coming......
Without further ado: Let's take a look at the week that was......
1. 'Bama. The LSU game was much closer than the 38-17 score might indicate. The fact is LSU is a deeply flawed team under Coach Miles. But this year's Bama team is flawed as well, especially on defense. Good passing teams give the Tide fits. FSU is a good passing team, with athleticism and a good defense. I don't think the Seminoles are likely to beat Alabama, but I think they might at least have a chance should they make it to the B(C)S Title Game.
2. Oregon. My gut feeling here is that Oregon was exposed. But then you have to realize that Stanford is a lot better than I (and many others) thought they were. That loss to Utah is a puzzler, but they got all over Mariota and the final score of 20-26 doesn't reflect just how dominating their performance really was. Is this the end of Oregon in the National Championship conversation? Possibly, for many years to come.
3. Baylor. This is going to anger a LOT of Baylor alums but the fairest question to ask about the Bears is whether they are this good, or is the Big Twen this bad? They trounced a formerly highly regarded OU team 41-12 in a game that wasn't that close. The problem is, OU's offense is abysmal which might have made Baylor's defense look pretty good. You can write off Baylor's slow start to nerves. This is the first time they've been in a game this big this season.
4. Texas. Wouldn't you know it, the week I decide to believe UT-Austin has turned it around they go out and lay a stinker against West Virginia. Yes, they won 47-40, but they had to go to overtime and looked less than impressive in doing so. I said at the time (on Twitter) that this UT-Austin team has to be one of the worst in the country that's leading a conference. I still stand by that sentiment.
5. Houston. I have to hand it to the Coogs, they played a lot better than I thought they would, only losing 14-19 to a very strong UCF team. Amazingly, the Louisville vs. UH line opened up at -17 1/2 Louisville on Sunday. If you're of a gaming persuasion I'd suggest jumping all over that line before it moves down. Based on their play against UCF, I'm going to have a hard time not picking UH to pull the upset here.
6. Duke. The Blue Devils are 7-2. Let me say that again: The Blue Devils are 7-2. Congratulations coach Cutcliffe.
7. Florida. Some people are questioning whether or not it's sane for Will Muschamp to be on the hot seat. I've seen Florida play before their QB Driskoll went down with injury. Yes, it is a fair question.
8. Florida State. I'm not sure if he has a prayer of winning the Heisman, but Jameis Winston might be the best player in College Football. For that matter, Florida State might be the best team in college football right now. Of course, they could look much worse against Bama if Saban has a month and a half to prepare for them.
9. Notre Dame. So they will NOT be in contention for a B(C)S bowl. That this below-average team needed to lose to Pitt for people to realize that illustrates just how bad a system the B(C)S was.
And finally......
10. Michigan. Aw Blue. Saturday's debacle against Nebraska now means that Michigan has rushed for -69 yards over the last two weeks. That's exactly 69 yards less than Bo Schembechler has rushing over that span of time. He probably gets one more year to turn it around, but Hoke and Co. are increasingly looking like a program in decline. This must change.
Top 5:
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Baylor
5. Stanford
Misc. - Eastern Michigan finally fired Ron English on Friday. They did this because the AD reportedly saw a film with English using gay slurs in a speech to his players. In my view this is a coward's way out. Ron English was fired because he was 1-8 this year and 11-46 overall.
Top Conferences:
1. SEC - Until someone knocks them off.
2. PAC12 - Nipping at the SEC's heels
3. ACC - Weak at the bottom, but pretty solid at the top.
4. B1G - Looking better and better every week.
5. American - UCF, UH, Louisville and Cincinnati are better than Baylor, UT-Austin, OSU & OU right now.
6. Big Twen - Down year but this could be the new norm for a horribly ran conference that's in danger of being torn apart.
Week 12 picks coming......
Thursday, November 07, 2013
College Football Predictions (Week 11)
After a couple of weeks traveling (To Vegas and to the US Virgin Islands) I'm back and (sadly) not tanned, but ready to jump back in the fray of picking games incorrectly for your reading pleasure. A lot of big games this week, games that could go a long way toward telling us who will ultimately be in the B(C)S Championship Game. I'm waiting for ESPN to give it some silly moniker like "Shake Out Saturday".
Without further ado.......
1. Oklahoma vs. Baylor(-15) - OU 17 Baylor 45 - I just don't like OU here. Their offense is a shambles and their defense gives up way to many big plays. There has been a lot of chatter asking "What's wrong with the Sooners?" I'll forward the theory that they are suffering from an overall lack of talent this year.
2. Oregon(-10.5) vs. Stanford - Ducks 42 Stan 23 - The trendy pick is to call for the Cardinal to pull the upset. Not this year. Stanford is not as solid as last year and Mariota is no Freshman. They won't roll like they normally do, but I think Oregon will cover and the game won't be as close as the score will indicate.
3. Kansas State vs. Texas Tech(-3) - K-State 20 Tech 24 - Tech has taken a couple of bad losses but I don't think the Wildcats are very good. That said, I don't think the Raiders are that good either. Just not as bad as the Fighting Snyders this year.
4. Mississippi State vs. Texas Agricultural and Mechanical University - MSU 17 aTm 56 - The Aggie defense is bad, but the Bulldogs are just not very good.
5. University of Texas(-6.5) vs. West Virginia University - UT 42 WVU 17 - I've been down on the Longhorns all year. To be fair, they're playing better defense and their offense has finally decided to develop an identity that works. A lot of the shine has rubbed off of Dana Holgerson in the last two years. He needs to show that he understands there are two sides to every football team. Defense coach, you have to play defense.
6. University of Houston vs. University of Central Florida(-11) - UH 24 UCF 27 - I'm not sure why, but I think the Coogs will cover here.
7. Virginia Technical University vs. University of Miami(-6.5) - VaTech 10 The U 42 - Most of this line is based on the injury to Johnson, who makes the 'Canes a MUCH better team. That said I think the Hokies continue to get residual love from Beamer's past teams. The reality is they're not that good this year.
8. University of Central Los Angeles vs. University of Arizona - UCLA 42 'Zona 17 - Honestly, I'm having trouble figuring this line out. I've watched a LOT of Pac12 football this year and UCLA seems to be much better than the Fighting Rich Rod's. Besides, as a Michigan fan I ALWAYS root for Rodriguez to take a whuppin'.
9. Louisiana State University vs. University of Alabama(-12.5) - LSU 10 Bama 35 - If a line seems too good to be true, it probably is.
And finally.......
10. Nebraska vs. Michigan(-7) - NU 23 Blue 24 - Yes, I'm crazy for picking Michigan, after all Bo Schembechler gained 48 more yards than they last Saturday against Michigan State, but Blue at home is a different team than Blue on the road. And Nebraska is a big, heaping pile of Bo Pellini mess right now. Go Blue!
To sum up: I think the best teams in the country are the best teams in the country for a reason so Baylor, Oregon and Alabama all survive to keep the B(C)S muddled in the final months of its final year. Given the history of this failure of competitive sports, I think that's entirely appropriate.
Without further ado.......
1. Oklahoma vs. Baylor(-15) - OU 17 Baylor 45 - I just don't like OU here. Their offense is a shambles and their defense gives up way to many big plays. There has been a lot of chatter asking "What's wrong with the Sooners?" I'll forward the theory that they are suffering from an overall lack of talent this year.
2. Oregon(-10.5) vs. Stanford - Ducks 42 Stan 23 - The trendy pick is to call for the Cardinal to pull the upset. Not this year. Stanford is not as solid as last year and Mariota is no Freshman. They won't roll like they normally do, but I think Oregon will cover and the game won't be as close as the score will indicate.
3. Kansas State vs. Texas Tech(-3) - K-State 20 Tech 24 - Tech has taken a couple of bad losses but I don't think the Wildcats are very good. That said, I don't think the Raiders are that good either. Just not as bad as the Fighting Snyders this year.
4. Mississippi State vs. Texas Agricultural and Mechanical University - MSU 17 aTm 56 - The Aggie defense is bad, but the Bulldogs are just not very good.
5. University of Texas(-6.5) vs. West Virginia University - UT 42 WVU 17 - I've been down on the Longhorns all year. To be fair, they're playing better defense and their offense has finally decided to develop an identity that works. A lot of the shine has rubbed off of Dana Holgerson in the last two years. He needs to show that he understands there are two sides to every football team. Defense coach, you have to play defense.
6. University of Houston vs. University of Central Florida(-11) - UH 24 UCF 27 - I'm not sure why, but I think the Coogs will cover here.
7. Virginia Technical University vs. University of Miami(-6.5) - VaTech 10 The U 42 - Most of this line is based on the injury to Johnson, who makes the 'Canes a MUCH better team. That said I think the Hokies continue to get residual love from Beamer's past teams. The reality is they're not that good this year.
8. University of Central Los Angeles vs. University of Arizona - UCLA 42 'Zona 17 - Honestly, I'm having trouble figuring this line out. I've watched a LOT of Pac12 football this year and UCLA seems to be much better than the Fighting Rich Rod's. Besides, as a Michigan fan I ALWAYS root for Rodriguez to take a whuppin'.
9. Louisiana State University vs. University of Alabama(-12.5) - LSU 10 Bama 35 - If a line seems too good to be true, it probably is.
And finally.......
10. Nebraska vs. Michigan(-7) - NU 23 Blue 24 - Yes, I'm crazy for picking Michigan, after all Bo Schembechler gained 48 more yards than they last Saturday against Michigan State, but Blue at home is a different team than Blue on the road. And Nebraska is a big, heaping pile of Bo Pellini mess right now. Go Blue!
To sum up: I think the best teams in the country are the best teams in the country for a reason so Baylor, Oregon and Alabama all survive to keep the B(C)S muddled in the final months of its final year. Given the history of this failure of competitive sports, I think that's entirely appropriate.
Monday, October 14, 2013
College Football Predictions (Week 7) The (ugly) Results
should really start putting some time into this, because I'm taking a whipping picking all of these upsets.
Last week saw a return to form, as I picked a few upsets and some favorites I thought were sure things.....then they weren't. To recap, I went a paltry 5-5 straight up and a horrible 4-6 ATS meaning that, if you bet against me, you did well (again). For the season that means I'm 64-25 SO and 40-47-1 ATS. Of course, these picks cost you exactly what you paid for them and what the heck are you doing taking betting advice from a 40 yr old, out-of-shape, accountant in the first place?
To be honest, I pick games because I think it's fun. If nothing else this reminds me that I don't know much about sports betting, which keeps me away from the actual sports books which saves me money. Still, on my trip to Vegas I'll still lay down a little, just less than I thought I would considering how much trouble I'm having getting a read on teams.
Now, as usual, here are your take-aways from the week that was:
1 - Texas Oh Texas. - Remember what I said last week about a team coming in too confident to a rivalry game? I'm unsure what happened to OU's offense, but they made UT-Austin's sub-par defensive unit look like world beaters.
2 - UGA limping - I really thought Georgia would have enough to beat Mizzou. That said I probably, like many, underrated this year's version of the Tigers based on what I saw last year. Too bad for them that Franklin is now out of the season. I would imagine they had designs on the SEC championship game with him. Still, the Tigers are a good team.
3 - The fallacy of early rankings - Stanford? Oh Stanford? This is what I mean when I say 1st half of the season rankings are, for the most part, ridiculous.
4 - Rice, 3-0 in C-USA - I told you they were good enough to make a run at the conference title.
5 - Houston, 5-0 - However, I'll be honest here, after the off-season mess I didn't see this coming.
6 - Manziel the Magnificent - Whether or not you think his skill-set will translate to the NFL (I don't) there's no denying that Johnny Football is an amazing college QB. Now, if the Aggies only had a defense.
7 - 'Bama back to looking like 'Bama - It was only a matter of time before that team started jelling.
8 - The Big Twen is terrible this year - Baylor is (arguably) the best team and they didn't look good against a horrible K-State team.
9 - Is this the year Clemson doesn't trip over itself? - They've been on danger alert, but next week's game against Florida St is going to be HUGE
And finally......
10 - Dammit Blue! - Brady Hoke is 100% to blame for the Penn State loss. If you play not to lose you won't win. Hoke had them playing not to lose. Hopefully the team learns from this and gets better. That said, I'm not a believer in the ability of Devin Gardner to play championship football.
Top 5: (as of now)
1. Alabama - Still the best until beaten.
2. Oregon - Did nothing to lose their position
3. Clemson - Next week is huge.
4. Florida St. - Ditto.
5. Ohio St. - By default.
Bottom 5:
1. Eastern Michigan. - Ron English is the worst coach in America.
2. Akron - The Terry Bowden project is a failure.
3. Florida Atlantic - Remember when they had hope for the future?
4. Florida International - Ditto.
5. Southern Miss - Never should have fired Jeff Bower.
Big game next week: Clemson/Florida St.
Off the radar: UCLA at Stanford.
Way off the radar: USC at Notre Dame
Last week saw a return to form, as I picked a few upsets and some favorites I thought were sure things.....then they weren't. To recap, I went a paltry 5-5 straight up and a horrible 4-6 ATS meaning that, if you bet against me, you did well (again). For the season that means I'm 64-25 SO and 40-47-1 ATS. Of course, these picks cost you exactly what you paid for them and what the heck are you doing taking betting advice from a 40 yr old, out-of-shape, accountant in the first place?
To be honest, I pick games because I think it's fun. If nothing else this reminds me that I don't know much about sports betting, which keeps me away from the actual sports books which saves me money. Still, on my trip to Vegas I'll still lay down a little, just less than I thought I would considering how much trouble I'm having getting a read on teams.
Now, as usual, here are your take-aways from the week that was:
1 - Texas Oh Texas. - Remember what I said last week about a team coming in too confident to a rivalry game? I'm unsure what happened to OU's offense, but they made UT-Austin's sub-par defensive unit look like world beaters.
2 - UGA limping - I really thought Georgia would have enough to beat Mizzou. That said I probably, like many, underrated this year's version of the Tigers based on what I saw last year. Too bad for them that Franklin is now out of the season. I would imagine they had designs on the SEC championship game with him. Still, the Tigers are a good team.
3 - The fallacy of early rankings - Stanford? Oh Stanford? This is what I mean when I say 1st half of the season rankings are, for the most part, ridiculous.
4 - Rice, 3-0 in C-USA - I told you they were good enough to make a run at the conference title.
5 - Houston, 5-0 - However, I'll be honest here, after the off-season mess I didn't see this coming.
6 - Manziel the Magnificent - Whether or not you think his skill-set will translate to the NFL (I don't) there's no denying that Johnny Football is an amazing college QB. Now, if the Aggies only had a defense.
7 - 'Bama back to looking like 'Bama - It was only a matter of time before that team started jelling.
8 - The Big Twen is terrible this year - Baylor is (arguably) the best team and they didn't look good against a horrible K-State team.
9 - Is this the year Clemson doesn't trip over itself? - They've been on danger alert, but next week's game against Florida St is going to be HUGE
And finally......
10 - Dammit Blue! - Brady Hoke is 100% to blame for the Penn State loss. If you play not to lose you won't win. Hoke had them playing not to lose. Hopefully the team learns from this and gets better. That said, I'm not a believer in the ability of Devin Gardner to play championship football.
Top 5: (as of now)
1. Alabama - Still the best until beaten.
2. Oregon - Did nothing to lose their position
3. Clemson - Next week is huge.
4. Florida St. - Ditto.
5. Ohio St. - By default.
Bottom 5:
1. Eastern Michigan. - Ron English is the worst coach in America.
2. Akron - The Terry Bowden project is a failure.
3. Florida Atlantic - Remember when they had hope for the future?
4. Florida International - Ditto.
5. Southern Miss - Never should have fired Jeff Bower.
Big game next week: Clemson/Florida St.
Off the radar: UCLA at Stanford.
Way off the radar: USC at Notre Dame
Thursday, October 10, 2013
College Football Predictions (Week 7)
I'm not touching the Louisville/Rutgers but I'm watching it.
Arizona @ USC(-5.5) Ariz 24 USC 17 - I like Ed Orgeron, but he's inherited a mess.
Missouri @ Georgia(-7.5) Mizzou 14 UGA 27 - Now Mizzou sees how good they aren't. This despite UGA battling a bevy of injuries.
Indiana @ Mich St(-9) IU 35 MST 24 - As a Michigan fan, I rarely bet Little Brother. That won't change here, but I'm rooting for the Hoosiers to kick the crap out of them.
Memphis @ Houston(-9.5) Mem 24 UH 42 - Is this the week I finally get one right for the Cougars? We'll see, it's the first week I'm giving them credit. O'Korn is the difference methinks.
Oklahoma(-13.5) @ Texas (In Dallas) OU 27 UT-Aus 24 - Any time I see people so confident of a blowout in this game I can never see it happening. OU wins, but UT-Austin play hard. Mack Brown claps a lot.
South Carolina(-5) @ Arkansas SC 24 Ark 17 - Arkansas is better, SC is even better than that.
Florida @ LSU(-7) FLA 10 LSU 35 - Not close.
Baylor(-17.5) @ Kansas State Bay 56 KSU 17 - The Wildcats are hanging their hats on the hope that Baylor is different on the road. Uh-oh.
Oregon(-14) @ Washington Ore 63 WU 24 -This is a trendy upset special among some prognosticators, I just don't see it. The Huskies are better but Oregon is just too good.
And Finally......
Michigan(-2.5) @ Penn State - BigBlue 38 Penn St 13 - I'm scared of this game, but I think Penn St is about at the same level as Minnesota. Michigan handled Minnesota. I'm hoping for the same here.
This is a good, not great, week of College Football Match-ups, too many obvious games or games that looked good at the beginning of the season but aren't looking so great now. Still, it's College Football in the beginning of Fall.
Good Luck.
Arizona @ USC(-5.5) Ariz 24 USC 17 - I like Ed Orgeron, but he's inherited a mess.
Missouri @ Georgia(-7.5) Mizzou 14 UGA 27 - Now Mizzou sees how good they aren't. This despite UGA battling a bevy of injuries.
Indiana @ Mich St(-9) IU 35 MST 24 - As a Michigan fan, I rarely bet Little Brother. That won't change here, but I'm rooting for the Hoosiers to kick the crap out of them.
Memphis @ Houston(-9.5) Mem 24 UH 42 - Is this the week I finally get one right for the Cougars? We'll see, it's the first week I'm giving them credit. O'Korn is the difference methinks.
Oklahoma(-13.5) @ Texas (In Dallas) OU 27 UT-Aus 24 - Any time I see people so confident of a blowout in this game I can never see it happening. OU wins, but UT-Austin play hard. Mack Brown claps a lot.
South Carolina(-5) @ Arkansas SC 24 Ark 17 - Arkansas is better, SC is even better than that.
Florida @ LSU(-7) FLA 10 LSU 35 - Not close.
Baylor(-17.5) @ Kansas State Bay 56 KSU 17 - The Wildcats are hanging their hats on the hope that Baylor is different on the road. Uh-oh.
Oregon(-14) @ Washington Ore 63 WU 24 -This is a trendy upset special among some prognosticators, I just don't see it. The Huskies are better but Oregon is just too good.
And Finally......
Michigan(-2.5) @ Penn State - BigBlue 38 Penn St 13 - I'm scared of this game, but I think Penn St is about at the same level as Minnesota. Michigan handled Minnesota. I'm hoping for the same here.
This is a good, not great, week of College Football Match-ups, too many obvious games or games that looked good at the beginning of the season but aren't looking so great now. Still, it's College Football in the beginning of Fall.
Good Luck.
Tuesday, October 08, 2013
College Football Predictions (Week 6) - The Results
"Ninety percent of this game is half-mental." - Yogi Berra.
And hey, 90% of picking college football is 1/2 skill. The other half is luck.
At this point, I'd just like to get to 50%. It's a number I creeped closer to ATS last week going 6-4, which leaves me at 36-41-1 for the season. If you've been following the "bet the opposite of what this idiot picks" strategy, I'm sorry, you lost last week. Straight up I had a great week going 10-0, which puts me at a respectable 59-20 for the year. As always, here are my takeaways from College football Week 6:
1. Oh UT-Austin. Even I didn't think they were THAT bad. I would imagine that Mack Brown is "retired" by the end of the year and UT-Austin will learn just how far it has fallen off the National radar when Saban says "Thanks....but no thanks".
2. The "trendy" pick right now is to pick OU big. But I was unimpressed with the Fighting Stoops' blah win over a not very good TCU team. I think OU will win, but I've never seen a team this confident in a blowout actually get one.
3. The PAC12 is, without a doubt, the 2nd best conference in all the land. Oregon and Stanford might be two of the better teams in the league and UCLA is for real.
4. That #SECMYTH is a 'thing' shows how little some people know about football outside of their conference. Using head-to-head matchups, typically in SEC road games, to try and determine conference strength is silly. 7 straight championships. Until someone tops that there's no discussion.
5. The 'best' college football betting rule is this: Fade #20-#25 if they're on the road. (Hat tip to Willie G for that one.)
6. Louisville might have a top 5 team, but by the end of the year, against the pathetic American Athletic Conference, we might not get a chance to find out.
7. Speaking of the Amway, this conference is going to be terrible next year. If UH can't thrive against that, with a new stadium etc. then they should possibly reconsider their focus.
8. Red RiverShootout Rivalry tickets can be had on the secondary market for face value. Think about that and then say a prayer for the Big XII Twen.
9. I think Jerry Kill is a good man, and a hell of a football coach, but it might be time to consider shutting it down. If not for his sake then for that of his family.
And finally......
10. Yes, they beat Minnesota, but this Michigan team is still giving me the creeping horrors every time Gardner drops back to pass.
Next week should be the first week that rankings mean anything, but here's my (current) top 5:
1. Alabama - Until they get beat, they're the champions.
2. Oregon - Could this be the year we see the best offense vs. the best team?
3. Stanford - Possibly the only team with a realistic chance to beat the Ducks.
4. Clemson - Until they pull a head-scratcher and lose to someone out of the blue.
5. Ohio St - Yes, the trendy pick is FSU, but I think the Buckeyes are a little bit better.
Bottom Feeders: (In no particular order)
1. Eastern Michigan - How does Ron English (11-42 since taking over in 2009) still have a job?
2. Southern Miss - Think this team is regretting the decision to force out Jeff Bower?
3. Idaho - The Vandals are horrible, just horrible.
4. New Mexico State - This is a team with little talent, and no resources ($$$) to lure it to town.
5. Georgia State - They are winless against FCS teams this year, nevermind not being competitive against the FBS.
Look out below: If UT-Austin DOES lose badly to OU.........
And hey, 90% of picking college football is 1/2 skill. The other half is luck.
At this point, I'd just like to get to 50%. It's a number I creeped closer to ATS last week going 6-4, which leaves me at 36-41-1 for the season. If you've been following the "bet the opposite of what this idiot picks" strategy, I'm sorry, you lost last week. Straight up I had a great week going 10-0, which puts me at a respectable 59-20 for the year. As always, here are my takeaways from College football Week 6:
1. Oh UT-Austin. Even I didn't think they were THAT bad. I would imagine that Mack Brown is "retired" by the end of the year and UT-Austin will learn just how far it has fallen off the National radar when Saban says "Thanks....but no thanks".
2. The "trendy" pick right now is to pick OU big. But I was unimpressed with the Fighting Stoops' blah win over a not very good TCU team. I think OU will win, but I've never seen a team this confident in a blowout actually get one.
3. The PAC12 is, without a doubt, the 2nd best conference in all the land. Oregon and Stanford might be two of the better teams in the league and UCLA is for real.
4. That #SECMYTH is a 'thing' shows how little some people know about football outside of their conference. Using head-to-head matchups, typically in SEC road games, to try and determine conference strength is silly. 7 straight championships. Until someone tops that there's no discussion.
5. The 'best' college football betting rule is this: Fade #20-#25 if they're on the road. (Hat tip to Willie G for that one.)
6. Louisville might have a top 5 team, but by the end of the year, against the pathetic American Athletic Conference, we might not get a chance to find out.
7. Speaking of the Amway, this conference is going to be terrible next year. If UH can't thrive against that, with a new stadium etc. then they should possibly reconsider their focus.
8. Red River
9. I think Jerry Kill is a good man, and a hell of a football coach, but it might be time to consider shutting it down. If not for his sake then for that of his family.
And finally......
10. Yes, they beat Minnesota, but this Michigan team is still giving me the creeping horrors every time Gardner drops back to pass.
Next week should be the first week that rankings mean anything, but here's my (current) top 5:
1. Alabama - Until they get beat, they're the champions.
2. Oregon - Could this be the year we see the best offense vs. the best team?
3. Stanford - Possibly the only team with a realistic chance to beat the Ducks.
4. Clemson - Until they pull a head-scratcher and lose to someone out of the blue.
5. Ohio St - Yes, the trendy pick is FSU, but I think the Buckeyes are a little bit better.
Bottom Feeders: (In no particular order)
1. Eastern Michigan - How does Ron English (11-42 since taking over in 2009) still have a job?
2. Southern Miss - Think this team is regretting the decision to force out Jeff Bower?
3. Idaho - The Vandals are horrible, just horrible.
4. New Mexico State - This is a team with little talent, and no resources ($$$) to lure it to town.
5. Georgia State - They are winless against FCS teams this year, nevermind not being competitive against the FBS.
Look out below: If UT-Austin DOES lose badly to OU.........
Thursday, October 03, 2013
College Football Predictions (Week 6)
As the air begins (in parts of the country) to cool and the leaves begin to turn that can only mean one thing: Conference play is about to ramp up full bore.
1. Texas @ Iowa St - UT 31 ISU 7 - I've been hard on the Longhorns this year, but ISU is terrible.
2. UCLA(-6) @ Utah - UCLA 42 Utes 14 - Outside of the shellacking they're sure to take from Oregon, I'm high on the Bruins this year.
3. Maryland @ Florida State(-16) - UM 14 FST 56 - The 'Noles have too much speed for the Turtle to handle
4. Michigan St(-1) @ Iowa - MST 24 IU 7 - I still have the theory that the Hawkeyes are not very good
5. Clemson(-14) @ Syracuse - Clem 42 Syr 7 - They might Clemson a game once this year, but not against this team
6. Rice @ Tulsa(-1) - Rice 27 Tulsa 24 - I picked Rice to win C-USA, they need this game to get there
7. Georgia(-10.5) @ Tennessee - UGA 35 UT 14 - UGA looked really good against LSU. I think they handle the Vols
8. Oregon(-39) @ Colorado - Oregon 77 Colorado 7 -Not only do I think the Ducks roll, but I think the Over (o/u 70) is a safe bet as well.
9.Texas Christian @ Oklahoma(-10) - TCU 10 OU 45 - What has TCU done this year to convince you they can be competitive against OU?
And finally......
10. Minnesota @ Michigan(-19) - Minn 20 Mich 23 - Despite being a Michigan fan, I can't see any reason to think Blue is going to run away with any game this year.
Good luck.
1. Texas @ Iowa St - UT 31 ISU 7 - I've been hard on the Longhorns this year, but ISU is terrible.
2. UCLA(-6) @ Utah - UCLA 42 Utes 14 - Outside of the shellacking they're sure to take from Oregon, I'm high on the Bruins this year.
3. Maryland @ Florida State(-16) - UM 14 FST 56 - The 'Noles have too much speed for the Turtle to handle
4. Michigan St(-1) @ Iowa - MST 24 IU 7 - I still have the theory that the Hawkeyes are not very good
5. Clemson(-14) @ Syracuse - Clem 42 Syr 7 - They might Clemson a game once this year, but not against this team
6. Rice @ Tulsa(-1) - Rice 27 Tulsa 24 - I picked Rice to win C-USA, they need this game to get there
7. Georgia(-10.5) @ Tennessee - UGA 35 UT 14 - UGA looked really good against LSU. I think they handle the Vols
8. Oregon(-39) @ Colorado - Oregon 77 Colorado 7 -Not only do I think the Ducks roll, but I think the Over (o/u 70) is a safe bet as well.
9.Texas Christian @ Oklahoma(-10) - TCU 10 OU 45 - What has TCU done this year to convince you they can be competitive against OU?
And finally......
10. Minnesota @ Michigan(-19) - Minn 20 Mich 23 - Despite being a Michigan fan, I can't see any reason to think Blue is going to run away with any game this year.
Good luck.
Tuesday, October 01, 2013
College Football Predictions (Week 5): The Results.
One of those odd weeks where you wouldn't have done well either betting with me or betting against me (which, this season, has been the better tack) as I went 6-4 SO and 4-5-1 ATS (Ohio State pushed at 7). I have much more fun picking spreads because it's much, MUCH harder than just picking winners straight up, even if it makes me look bad.
Enough of that, let's bring back some take-a-ways from this last weekend of College Football:
1. Oregon is good. Possibly #1 team in all the land good.
2. Alabama's not that bad either. Perhaps this is the year we get them vs. the Ducks?
3. Welcome back to the National conversation Oklahoma. It appears you are the only class in the Big Twen.
4. Oof. Connecticuit. At this point I'm wondering if Big Blue should even be ranked? A good win over Minnesota would help.
5. Ah Okie State. Just Ah.
6. The Houston Cougars are playing much, much better with O'Korn at QB.
7. Whoever made that schedule for LSU needs to be fired. Brutal for Tiger fans.
8. Washington is pretty good. Their game against Oregon could be a barn-burner.
9. UT-Austin is still a dumpster fire.
And finally.....
10. Lane Kiffen fired? Couldn't have happened to a better guy.
On to next week and some pretty good matchups.
Enough of that, let's bring back some take-a-ways from this last weekend of College Football:
1. Oregon is good. Possibly #1 team in all the land good.
2. Alabama's not that bad either. Perhaps this is the year we get them vs. the Ducks?
3. Welcome back to the National conversation Oklahoma. It appears you are the only class in the Big Twen.
4. Oof. Connecticuit. At this point I'm wondering if Big Blue should even be ranked? A good win over Minnesota would help.
5. Ah Okie State. Just Ah.
6. The Houston Cougars are playing much, much better with O'Korn at QB.
7. Whoever made that schedule for LSU needs to be fired. Brutal for Tiger fans.
8. Washington is pretty good. Their game against Oregon could be a barn-burner.
9. UT-Austin is still a dumpster fire.
And finally.....
10. Lane Kiffen fired? Couldn't have happened to a better guy.
On to next week and some pretty good matchups.
Friday, September 27, 2013
College Football Predictions (Week 5)
My apologies for the late entry this week, I was out of town at a business conference....
First, some numbers from last week. I took too many upsets last weekend and finished 8-4 SO and 4-7 ATS. This leaves me at 43-16 SO and 26-32 ATS for the season. Clearly you'd be better off taking my spread predictions and betting against whatever it is I'm suggesting.
That said, let's power ahead shall we?
Oklahoma State(-19) @ West Virginia - OSU 42 WVU 7 - West Virginia has been horrible this year.
Southern Methodist @ TCU(-19) - SMU 3 TCU 17 - It's not that I think SMU is any good, it's that I don't think TCU is good at all. The o/u here (52.5) is also attractive. (under)
Louisiana State @ Georgia(-3) - LSU 27 UGA 24 - From what I've seen, LSU might be the best team in the country. That said, I think their schedule is eventually going to get them. I just don't think it will be this week.
Oklahoma (-3.5) @ Notre Dame - OU 24 ND 13 - I still don't think Notre Dame is very good and that Michigan loss is looking worse and worse as the weeks go by.
Connecticut @ Buffalo (EVEN) - UCONN 24 BUFF 13 - I want to believe that the Huskies are better than Buffalo. For Michigan's sake I hope so.
Ole Miss @ Alabama(-14.5) - Ole Miss 17 Ala 42 - At some point Alabama's going to look like Alabama right?
Texas A&M(-15) @ Arkansas - aTm 42 Ark 35 - The consensus is that aTm, with Manziel, can score on anyone. Unfortunately for the Aggies almost anyone can score on them as well.
Wisconsin @ Ohio State(-7) - Wisky 10 OSU 37 - The way they've been rolling, is there any reason to pick against the Buckeyes right now?
Southern California(-4) @ Arizona State - USC 20 ASU 28 - Down from last week I'm only picking on (mild) upset this week. I feel pretty good about Sparky at home.
And finally......(No Michigan game this week so I'm going with the Houston team for the "finally" game)
University of Texas-El Paso(-3) @ Houston - UTEP 27 UH 24 - The line was taken down on Thursday evening before I wrote this post. So I'm unsure what's happening here on the injury front. That said I still like the Miners who have shown themselves well against tougher.
First, some numbers from last week. I took too many upsets last weekend and finished 8-4 SO and 4-7 ATS. This leaves me at 43-16 SO and 26-32 ATS for the season. Clearly you'd be better off taking my spread predictions and betting against whatever it is I'm suggesting.
That said, let's power ahead shall we?
Oklahoma State(-19) @ West Virginia - OSU 42 WVU 7 - West Virginia has been horrible this year.
Southern Methodist @ TCU(-19) - SMU 3 TCU 17 - It's not that I think SMU is any good, it's that I don't think TCU is good at all. The o/u here (52.5) is also attractive. (under)
Louisiana State @ Georgia(-3) - LSU 27 UGA 24 - From what I've seen, LSU might be the best team in the country. That said, I think their schedule is eventually going to get them. I just don't think it will be this week.
Oklahoma (-3.5) @ Notre Dame - OU 24 ND 13 - I still don't think Notre Dame is very good and that Michigan loss is looking worse and worse as the weeks go by.
Connecticut @ Buffalo (EVEN) - UCONN 24 BUFF 13 - I want to believe that the Huskies are better than Buffalo. For Michigan's sake I hope so.
Ole Miss @ Alabama(-14.5) - Ole Miss 17 Ala 42 - At some point Alabama's going to look like Alabama right?
Texas A&M(-15) @ Arkansas - aTm 42 Ark 35 - The consensus is that aTm, with Manziel, can score on anyone. Unfortunately for the Aggies almost anyone can score on them as well.
Wisconsin @ Ohio State(-7) - Wisky 10 OSU 37 - The way they've been rolling, is there any reason to pick against the Buckeyes right now?
Southern California(-4) @ Arizona State - USC 20 ASU 28 - Down from last week I'm only picking on (mild) upset this week. I feel pretty good about Sparky at home.
And finally......(No Michigan game this week so I'm going with the Houston team for the "finally" game)
University of Texas-El Paso(-3) @ Houston - UTEP 27 UH 24 - The line was taken down on Thursday evening before I wrote this post. So I'm unsure what's happening here on the injury front. That said I still like the Miners who have shown themselves well against tougher.
Monday, September 16, 2013
College Football Picks (Week 3): The Results
Finally, some progress.
For the week I went 13-2 straight up and a respectable 11-4 ATS. That makes me 35-12 straight up for the season and 22-25 ATS. I feel pretty good about this because a couple of the games in the loss column ATS are games that would have been lay-offs.
For one, Michigan. Since I'm a fan of Big Blue I rarely bet them. It's too hard to keep the heart out of the way. For the aTm/Alabama game, I picked Bama by 14 but the line move said aTm (it finished around - 9 1/2 to 10 right before kick-off.) When a line says go a different way from what your gut instinct says, lay off. When aTm back-door covered on the long TD pass I felt pretty good. I'd have felt even better were I in Vegas actually betting on the game.
As my Vegas trip gets closer, I'll start pruning my games list. Typically in Vegas I only bet 6-7 games including one pretty good sized parlay. For week 4 I'm going to reduce the list to 10 games in advance of that. I like trying to pick a broad spectrum of games however so I'll include some predictions that are clearly not games I would bet to try and keep the number at 15.
As usual, here's my top 10 takeaways from Week 3 of College football.....
1. - About those defenses: In short, there's very litte in college football right now. Vegas hasn't adjusted to this fully yet so "Over" is a pretty strong play for several teams right now.
2. - The eyes of Texas are crying. And boy is that defense in need of some work. 6-6 feels like the ceiling for this Longhorn team, not the floor.
3. - You have to think the Rice Owls are a favorite to win C-USA this year. UH is in some trouble methinks in the Bayou Bucket game.
4. - aTm this year is a much more talented version of UH when Sumlin was at the helm. Great offense, sketchy defense. I didn't think they would be that bad against Bama.
5. - Oregon is pretty good. That is all.
6. - It's time to start the "Dan Mullen job watch" as Miss State loses yet another one.
7. - OU is steadily improving. With Bell at QB they could run for 700 yards against UT-Austin.
8. - TCU's struggles against the Big Twen lay bare the flaws in the "BCS Buster" arguments. Average teams having good seasons do not mean that they would be powers in power conferences. There's a reason Boise St. likes playing in the Mountain West.
9. - This is not your last year's Notre Dame team. Further evidence their cupcake schedule every year keeps them falsely in the B(C)S conversation and will keep them falsely in the 4 team playoff conversation going forward.
And finally.....
10. - Michigan is 3-0, but 1-2 against the spread. Furthermore their defense looks closer to the Rich Rod days than it does the days when Jarrett Irons and Charles Woodson roamed. The people that seem happiest about this? Oddly enough, K-State fans, who deluged my twitter feed with insults while the team was struggling against Akron. As I said on Twitter, I would love it if K-State would get a bowl match-up with Michigan this year so we could pants them but alas, the chances of the Wildcats becoming bowl eligible this year seem remote.
On to week 4 with some momentum. Let's see if we can keep it going.
For the week I went 13-2 straight up and a respectable 11-4 ATS. That makes me 35-12 straight up for the season and 22-25 ATS. I feel pretty good about this because a couple of the games in the loss column ATS are games that would have been lay-offs.
For one, Michigan. Since I'm a fan of Big Blue I rarely bet them. It's too hard to keep the heart out of the way. For the aTm/Alabama game, I picked Bama by 14 but the line move said aTm (it finished around - 9 1/2 to 10 right before kick-off.) When a line says go a different way from what your gut instinct says, lay off. When aTm back-door covered on the long TD pass I felt pretty good. I'd have felt even better were I in Vegas actually betting on the game.
As my Vegas trip gets closer, I'll start pruning my games list. Typically in Vegas I only bet 6-7 games including one pretty good sized parlay. For week 4 I'm going to reduce the list to 10 games in advance of that. I like trying to pick a broad spectrum of games however so I'll include some predictions that are clearly not games I would bet to try and keep the number at 15.
As usual, here's my top 10 takeaways from Week 3 of College football.....
1. - About those defenses: In short, there's very litte in college football right now. Vegas hasn't adjusted to this fully yet so "Over" is a pretty strong play for several teams right now.
2. - The eyes of Texas are crying. And boy is that defense in need of some work. 6-6 feels like the ceiling for this Longhorn team, not the floor.
3. - You have to think the Rice Owls are a favorite to win C-USA this year. UH is in some trouble methinks in the Bayou Bucket game.
4. - aTm this year is a much more talented version of UH when Sumlin was at the helm. Great offense, sketchy defense. I didn't think they would be that bad against Bama.
5. - Oregon is pretty good. That is all.
6. - It's time to start the "Dan Mullen job watch" as Miss State loses yet another one.
7. - OU is steadily improving. With Bell at QB they could run for 700 yards against UT-Austin.
8. - TCU's struggles against the Big Twen lay bare the flaws in the "BCS Buster" arguments. Average teams having good seasons do not mean that they would be powers in power conferences. There's a reason Boise St. likes playing in the Mountain West.
9. - This is not your last year's Notre Dame team. Further evidence their cupcake schedule every year keeps them falsely in the B(C)S conversation and will keep them falsely in the 4 team playoff conversation going forward.
And finally.....
10. - Michigan is 3-0, but 1-2 against the spread. Furthermore their defense looks closer to the Rich Rod days than it does the days when Jarrett Irons and Charles Woodson roamed. The people that seem happiest about this? Oddly enough, K-State fans, who deluged my twitter feed with insults while the team was struggling against Akron. As I said on Twitter, I would love it if K-State would get a bowl match-up with Michigan this year so we could pants them but alas, the chances of the Wildcats becoming bowl eligible this year seem remote.
On to week 4 with some momentum. Let's see if we can keep it going.
Friday, September 13, 2013
College Football Picks: Week 3 (Continued)
It was an ugly, Big Twen, type of game, but I'll take 1-0 on the moneyline any day of the week.....
Without further ado, the rest of the picks.
Air Force at Boise St(-24) - AF 10 Boise St 24 - I think Boise wins, but I don't see them covering.
Virginia Tech(-7 1/2) at East Carolina - Va Tech 20 ECU 17 - Again, uncomfortable with the cover here.
UCLA at Nebraska(-4 1/2) - UCLA 27 NU 13 - UCLA handled a fair Nevada team while Nebraska struggled against Wyoming and pounded a horrible Southern Miss team. Advantage Bruins.
OU(-24) at Tulsa - OU 36 TU 10 - This is not your father's run 'em up and score OU team. They do have a good defense however and should handle TU.
Akron at Michigan(-37) - Zips 3 Big Blue 45 - I think Blue will cover, but not by a lot.
Tenessee at Oregon(-28) - UT 17 Ducks 63 - I have faith in very few teams to stop Oregon's offense. The Vols are not one of those few.
Iowa(-2 1/2) at Iowa St. -IU 13 ISU 14 - One of the worst "in state" rivalry games right now considering both teams are terrible. Could be the last one for Kirk Ferentz.
Kansas at Rice(-7) - KU 20* Rice 42 - I know, I know, KU is supposed to be better and we're talking about Rice here. The thing is, Rice is pretty good, KU is not.
Ole Miss at Texas(-2 1/2) - Ole Miss 34 UT-Austin 35 - There are a lot of times I've seen an average team with a proud past respond well to an ass-whipping. I think the Horns will play hard. It helps that Ole Miss has young talent, but is not very good.
Notre Dame (-20 1/2) at Purdon't - ND 34 Purdon't 0 - Of all the "rivalry" games the Irish are going to lose due to their new ACC alliance, they are probably going to miss this one because Purdue is typically awful.
Oregon St at Utah (-3 1/2) - OrSU 27 Utes 34 - That's right, I'm not a believer in the Beavers
Maryland (-6 1/2) at UConn - Mary 26 UConn 10 - If the UH Cougars are looking forward to playing you this year your team has issues.
Mississippi St at Auburn (-6) - MSU 24 Auburn 30 - Auburn is a much better coached team this year.
And finally.......
Alabama (-8 1/2) at Texas A&M - Bama 42 aTm 27 - I saw lines as high as -14 in early action on this game. I think -8 1/2 is about right. Saban's been obsessing over aTm since last year. Let's lace 'em up.
Good luck. *KU score corrected @ 3:02PM on Friday from 10 to 20 to fix typo.
Without further ado, the rest of the picks.
Air Force at Boise St(-24) - AF 10 Boise St 24 - I think Boise wins, but I don't see them covering.
Virginia Tech(-7 1/2) at East Carolina - Va Tech 20 ECU 17 - Again, uncomfortable with the cover here.
UCLA at Nebraska(-4 1/2) - UCLA 27 NU 13 - UCLA handled a fair Nevada team while Nebraska struggled against Wyoming and pounded a horrible Southern Miss team. Advantage Bruins.
OU(-24) at Tulsa - OU 36 TU 10 - This is not your father's run 'em up and score OU team. They do have a good defense however and should handle TU.
Akron at Michigan(-37) - Zips 3 Big Blue 45 - I think Blue will cover, but not by a lot.
Tenessee at Oregon(-28) - UT 17 Ducks 63 - I have faith in very few teams to stop Oregon's offense. The Vols are not one of those few.
Iowa(-2 1/2) at Iowa St. -IU 13 ISU 14 - One of the worst "in state" rivalry games right now considering both teams are terrible. Could be the last one for Kirk Ferentz.
Kansas at Rice(-7) - KU 20* Rice 42 - I know, I know, KU is supposed to be better and we're talking about Rice here. The thing is, Rice is pretty good, KU is not.
Ole Miss at Texas(-2 1/2) - Ole Miss 34 UT-Austin 35 - There are a lot of times I've seen an average team with a proud past respond well to an ass-whipping. I think the Horns will play hard. It helps that Ole Miss has young talent, but is not very good.
Notre Dame (-20 1/2) at Purdon't - ND 34 Purdon't 0 - Of all the "rivalry" games the Irish are going to lose due to their new ACC alliance, they are probably going to miss this one because Purdue is typically awful.
Oregon St at Utah (-3 1/2) - OrSU 27 Utes 34 - That's right, I'm not a believer in the Beavers
Maryland (-6 1/2) at UConn - Mary 26 UConn 10 - If the UH Cougars are looking forward to playing you this year your team has issues.
Mississippi St at Auburn (-6) - MSU 24 Auburn 30 - Auburn is a much better coached team this year.
And finally.......
Alabama (-8 1/2) at Texas A&M - Bama 42 aTm 27 - I saw lines as high as -14 in early action on this game. I think -8 1/2 is about right. Saban's been obsessing over aTm since last year. Let's lace 'em up.
Good luck. *KU score corrected @ 3:02PM on Friday from 10 to 20 to fix typo.
Thursday, September 12, 2013
College Football Predictions: Week 3 (short version)
This is the point in the season where it all starts to get clear.
One of the reasons I time my annual Las Vegas College Football betting run until later in the year is because of what happened in the first two weeks. Many teams that you "thought" would be OK (I'm looking at you UT-Austin, Florida) and teams that you thought might be pretty bad (Miami, Auburn) turn out to be not as horrible as you first thought. This is why I don't pay (much) attention to pre-season rankings until after the first two weeks of conference play. It's also why I won't bet anything in football until there are some real world examples to follow. I understand that there are wise-guys and sharps out there who can do well in the first of the year, but I have neither the time nor the resources to put in the crunch time needed to be really good.
Now, because games are getting ready to start: Some picks.
TCU (-3) at Texas Tech TCU 20 Tech 27 - I realize it's risky, but I like the Raiders here.
More picks to come tomorrow but I wanted to get this one in before kick off.
One of the reasons I time my annual Las Vegas College Football betting run until later in the year is because of what happened in the first two weeks. Many teams that you "thought" would be OK (I'm looking at you UT-Austin, Florida) and teams that you thought might be pretty bad (Miami, Auburn) turn out to be not as horrible as you first thought. This is why I don't pay (much) attention to pre-season rankings until after the first two weeks of conference play. It's also why I won't bet anything in football until there are some real world examples to follow. I understand that there are wise-guys and sharps out there who can do well in the first of the year, but I have neither the time nor the resources to put in the crunch time needed to be really good.
Now, because games are getting ready to start: Some picks.
TCU (-3) at Texas Tech TCU 20 Tech 27 - I realize it's risky, but I like the Raiders here.
More picks to come tomorrow but I wanted to get this one in before kick off.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
College Football Predictions: Week 2 Results
Everyone has bad (terrible, awful, truly horrendous) weeks. I'm hoping that these were mine.
First off, the ugly numbers: 9-6 straight up but a horrible 4-11 against the spread. If you're keeping track that means that I'm 22-10 straight up for the season but an alarming 11-21 against the spread. I've got a Vegas trip coming up so, if I plan on turning a profit, I had better start picking it up.
Unfortunately, like most, I work a job and don't have time to drill into the numbers like I want to. But I couldn't be a full-time gambler either. If you think you can don't forget about the swings. I like my salary. What this means is that as I'm writing this the San Diego Chargers just intercepted a pass and then scored on the next play to go up 7-0 over the Texans. It will publish tomorrow so I'll refrain from commenting on the game because I'll probably get that wrong as well.
As usual, here are my takeaways from last weeks College Football action:
1. - If aTm doesn't improve on defense 'Bama is going to beat them by 30. As it is, the Aggies are getting 14 points against Bama and I am leaning aTm in that game. I'll have to watch the line and see where it goes.
2. - UT-Austin might be one of the worst coached teams I've ever seen. That's not hyperbole.
3. - Never bet on Bobby Patrino. Just don't.
4. - OU fans: It's time to start seriously worrying.
5. - UH fans: I'm still not impressed with the Cougar Jr. Varsity men's football team. You barely beat Temple. Temple.
6. - The #SECmyth hashtag is starting to trend. However, at the top they are the best still, until someone beats them.
7. - Someone has to win the Big Twen this year right?
8. - If NC State had lost to Richmond it would have set them up perfectly for an upset of Clemson. Alas.
9. - Suddenly we're all going to get a lesson on the Statute of Limitations and how it applies to Oklahoma State.
And finally......
10. - Take that Notre Dame. (Go Blue!)
First off, the ugly numbers: 9-6 straight up but a horrible 4-11 against the spread. If you're keeping track that means that I'm 22-10 straight up for the season but an alarming 11-21 against the spread. I've got a Vegas trip coming up so, if I plan on turning a profit, I had better start picking it up.
Unfortunately, like most, I work a job and don't have time to drill into the numbers like I want to. But I couldn't be a full-time gambler either. If you think you can don't forget about the swings. I like my salary. What this means is that as I'm writing this the San Diego Chargers just intercepted a pass and then scored on the next play to go up 7-0 over the Texans. It will publish tomorrow so I'll refrain from commenting on the game because I'll probably get that wrong as well.
As usual, here are my takeaways from last weeks College Football action:
1. - If aTm doesn't improve on defense 'Bama is going to beat them by 30. As it is, the Aggies are getting 14 points against Bama and I am leaning aTm in that game. I'll have to watch the line and see where it goes.
2. - UT-Austin might be one of the worst coached teams I've ever seen. That's not hyperbole.
3. - Never bet on Bobby Patrino. Just don't.
4. - OU fans: It's time to start seriously worrying.
5. - UH fans: I'm still not impressed with the Cougar Jr. Varsity men's football team. You barely beat Temple. Temple.
6. - The #SECmyth hashtag is starting to trend. However, at the top they are the best still, until someone beats them.
7. - Someone has to win the Big Twen this year right?
8. - If NC State had lost to Richmond it would have set them up perfectly for an upset of Clemson. Alas.
9. - Suddenly we're all going to get a lesson on the Statute of Limitations and how it applies to Oklahoma State.
And finally......
10. - Take that Notre Dame. (Go Blue!)
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