Houston Area Leadership Vacuum: The Texas Supreme Court as Mayor Parker's Nanny.

In the battle over HER Ordinance, the Parker Administration has to be getting tired of getting their hats handed to them by the Texas Supreme Court.

Texas Supreme Court says City erred on HER Ordinance ballot Language. Mike Morris and Katherine Driessen. Chron.com

The justices, writing in "yet another mandamus proceeding concerning the City of Houston's equal rights ordinance," said the city charter is clear in requiring that voters be asked to vote for or against the ordinance. Parker had instead argued it was proper to vote for or against repealing the measure, and the council approved language with that approach Aug. 5.

The judges did allow the words: "Houston Equal Rights Ordinance" to remain in the ballot language, which makes sense.  I would object to HERO (or, HER Ordinance, which I use) since that is clearly political in nature.

What remains to be seen is how the Parker administration reacts to this ruling.  Although I'm unsure what wiggle room they have.  It's fairly clear that they need to re-work the ballot language to comply with the court's order.  Will they try (again) to do something squirrely?

Houston Area Leadership Vacuum: Handicapping the Mayoral Race

Last night, all of the heavy hitters, and a few of the spray hitters, in Houston's election for its next Mayor participated in a candidate forum organized by State Representative Senfronia Thompson. On the heels of that I think it's high time to take another look at the candidates and reassess their likelihood of making a run-off.

Unlike my last post on this, I'm going to place the candidates into tiers, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and then (again) provide a sports books odds (my guess really) as to how likely they are to make it into a run-off election. (Which is where I think this is going.)
 
 
The Top Tier
 
1. Sylvester Turner. (-400) Whether or not you agree with Mr. Turner on the issues, and it's sometimes hard to determine whether or not you do because he tends to be rather light on specifics, he is the unquestioned leader in the paddock. Turner has two things that any good candidate for Mayor in Houston wants to have.  1. A natural, unquestioning constituency. 2. Strong political patronage in the form of State Senator John Whitmire.

This dual advantage is being played well and it provides Turner with a key advantage: He doesn't have to get all that specific on the issues because no-one who's likely to vote for him cares.  In truth, it's going to be enough that he's seen on the "right side" of a number of items including municipal pensions, HER Ordinance and increasing city 'revenues'.  He's also seen as someone who will support the Inner Loop business cartel.

The frustrating thing about Turner is that he's currently being allowed to skate through with little opposition from his supposded opponents. Possibly due, in part, to his political connections, he's not being challenged on some of his more daft statements such as "We must speak out against violence in any form."  Ummm..OK, but HOW?  And why?  Until one of his opponents forces Turner to provide some meat behind his platitudes his lead is unlikely to shrink.

 
2. Adrian Garcia. (-150) The former City Councilman and former Harris County Sheriff also has what is seemingly an unquestioning group of supporters.  Here's a man of little political gravitas whose high-point in elected office appears to be his selfie game on Twitter. Never mind that he had a disastrous partial-term as Sheriff, and that his successor has been forced to attempt to rebuild morale and salvage a department that has been left in shambles, his opponents are not challenging him when he speaks on law enforcement.

In a sane world, the mess that was the Harris County Jail system would be an anchor around Garcia's neck as he tried to float to the top of the heap. In the Houston area, where true leadership is a mirage, he's actually considered a viable candidate.  While I don't think he's the shoo-in to make the run off as is Turner, I definitely think he's the 2nd most-likely candidate in the race and one of only two candidates that I give positive odds to.

Garcia doesn't have the natural political patronage that Turner enjoys, but he's going to garner quite a bit of support from the Hispanic community regardless of his record. As with Turner, this allows Garcia to run a campaign without really mentioning the issues.  Right now his strategy seems to be to kiss the women and slap the babies while hoping no one notices that his trunk of ideas has cartoon moths flying out of it.

The 2nd Tier
 
3. Ben Hall (+250) I struggled just a little bit placing Ben Hall this high.  Then I realized that, amazingly, he's emerging as the chosen candidate for the counter-conservative GOP movement in Harris County. Given that and his work to gain support from Evangelicals and I think this is about right.

Hall has decided to embrace the anti-HER Ordinance crowd at the risk of inflaming the GLBTIQ community. He's doing this in an effort to grab votes from his conservative opponents, as well as gain key endorsements from Pastors targeted by Mayor Annise Parker as she fought to pass HER Ordinance. Early results suggest that this has been successful, but I'm not sure just how successful they will be over time.

This is especially true when you consider Hall has decided to go against the Police Union which will anger some (although not all) of the conservative vote that he's trying to court.  Hall is a candidate that is trying to serve two masters and I've a feeling this, and the fact that he's just not all that strong of a candidate, will cause him to fall short.
 
 
4. Chris Bell (+500) I realize what you're saying here. "Wait, Chris Bell?!?  THAT Chris Bell?!? He of the 'moonshot for education' and many failed attempts at office?!?"

Yup, THAT Chris Bell. Chris Bell who seems to have around 10-15% of the Inside the Loop, progressive vote just because of name ID.  A guy who has never met an issue he doesn't like provided it has the potential to raise campaign funds. A man who has continued to show his illegitimacy as a front-line candidate by focusing on issues that are not of primary import to the long-term health of the city.

That is what Chris Bell has always been, a second-tier candidate with unserious ideas who has been willing to take one for the Democratic team if need be.  At some point, I imagine that he'll find a place to run where he's unopposed by a serious challenger and will settle into a cushy government role in the mold of Orlando Sanchez. Until then, he's the humorous candidate in the race, but he does come with a natural constituency (White, relatively well-off, Inner-Loop progressives) so that has to be factored in.

The 3rd Tier
 
5. Bill King (+750) Right now, I'm struggling to find a path to victory for King.  Of all the candidates he seems to have the clearest message (Back to Basics) and a natural constituency (Conservatives) but he has done a horrible job, so far, consolidating both.

My gut feeling is that King is taking certain votes for granted, assuming they have nowhere else to go, something that has already been proven false by some contra-GOP members supporting either Hall or (wait for it) Chris Bell to some degree.

At this point I'm at a loss to say how King makes the run-off considering what's in front of him and his candidacy's seeming unwillingness to play for the win.  We've seen the results of the "run for the runoff" strategy (Orlando Sanchez, Roy Morales, although King is a better candidate than both combined) and I think we're seeing a repeat of this here.  Were I in the endorsing business, I might give the nod to King, but then again I might not as I've yet to see from him the ability to be the common-sense leader of his campaign that he says he's going to be for the City. As a good friend of mine, who shall remain nameless, stated: (paraphrased) King's seems to be struggling to cover the 'basics' of campaigning, much less governing.  Forgetting all of that, I think the conservative split is going to doom his chances.
 
6. Stephen Costello (+1000) Like Garcia, I think Costello enters this race with more negatives positives and more baggage than any other candidate. He's trying to position himself as a conservative option in a city where he's proven open to crony capitalism on the municipal level (not illegal mind you, just very un-conservative) and he was the primary architect behind RenewHouston, which is a troubling morass of a tax increase that's been slapped down by the Texas Supreme Court.

The most amazing thing?  Again, his opponents seem reluctant to point this out.  Either they lack the political will to do so or they realize that the presence of a fairly unaccountable slush-fund for infrastructure projects provides a future Mayor with a big political hammer is a very big prize. Unfortunately, for them, it's looking more and more likely that the slush fund will not be around and the Costello campaign will fail to make many waves.

What Costello can do is siphon enough votes from the King campaign to keep a conservative out of the run-off. I don't think this is his goal but I do think its how he's currently positioned and what his role will ultimately be.  Saying that however, I'm unsure if the City of Houston conservative voting bloc is a.) big enough to make much impact and b.) organized with enough solidarity to matter.
 
7. Marty McVey (+Whatever) Give him this much, McVey is hanging in there and he's showing up at all of the forums and he's parroting the progressive line.  His problem is that there are four candidates in this race that are a.) more well known in the progressive community than he and b.) much better at this politics thing.

I consider this race political training for McVey, who needs to learn the political truism that you should start small and work your way up.  After the Ted Cruz/Senate thing, more and more candidates are jumping in at levels above their station and running for offices they are not ready to occupy.  This is NOT an elitist view, but just reality.  You deal with the same thing at your job, probably, when 2- 3-year employees suddenly think they're management material.

I expect we'll see McVey running for City Council or some other office in a future election, and given the amount of name recognition he's currently building, I expect that he'll have a successful go at it.  Whether or not he'll be very good at the job is another matter entirely.

McVey strikes me as someone who's a little fluid in his political make-up, who's just a bit squiggly on his core values. A lot of his political rhetoric smacks of "me-too!" rather than well thought out, reasoned political thought and he's not near as good as sound-byte politics as Turner or Garcia. He's the long-shot, and I don't see that changing.

 
As I wrap this up I'd like to remind everyone of a couple of important items:

1. We're a LONG way away from election season. - As a matter of fact, we probably won't see things kick into high gear until after Labor Day.

2. As a result, this could change. - We are 'just one gaffe away' from everything being flipped on its head.

There is a possibility that one candidate will change tactics and begin to hit the others on their weaknesses. If this happens, and if they have enough money and an effective team, then this could turn around.  We're sure to see a negative ad before this race is over. I'm betting the Ben Hall campaign launches it, but I've been wrong (many times) before.

Presumptuous Blogging: Things you should read (08/11/2015)

We are smack-dab in the middle of silly season......

Dear Beyonce, please save HER Ordinance. Despite the fact that you are a New Yorker, and have few remaining ties to Houston, pretty please?

Let's force airlines to cut fees because Something! must be done. Which, by the by, can be somewhat avoided through planning etc. What cannot be avoided are the resulting higher fares that would result from fees going away. The law of unintended consequences and what-not.

Politics is killing horse-racing in Texas. This despite the fact that the sport is flourishing Nationwide. Sen. Nelson seems bound and determined to protect the State monopoly on gambling in the form of the Texas Lottery.

It's strange to see Adrian Garcia promoting an endorsement that went to another candidate.  Welcome to the "We're number 2!" theory of campaigning for Houston Mayor. (See also: Bill King, Stephen Costello, Ben Hall and Chris Bell) [On another note: Is a group who claims Jolanda Jones as a leader really a group whose endorsement should be coveted?  Discuss]

Speaking of the election for Houston Mayor. The TV ads they are a'comin. You've been warned. (It would have been nice if they waited until after the beginning of football season.)

I give you peak crazy in the feminist movement. We are there.

More on HER Ordinance. Given all of the problems Houston is currently facing. How much of a priority would this be if Houston had something resembling leadership?

One of the biggest lies foisted on the American people are US Economic 'jobs' reports.

It appears Rick Perry may be the first to go. I always thought his window closed in a whirl of 'Oops.' four years ago. It seems I was not mistaken. This is too bad because he seems to have found his stride as a candidate recently.

First they lie about the potholes. Next thing you know they won't be shooting straight about the depths of Houston's financial problems......oh, wait.

We run a lot of red lights in Houston, and a lot of people die as a result. - Cue the "Red Light Cameras Now!" crowd who are, again, attempting to place a Band-Aid on the cancer of bad-driving in Houston.

Six places to avoid in Houston if you value your sanity. If you are still an "undecided" voter, knowing what we know about Houston and its current condition.......


And finally.....

Hard Knocks on HBO premiers tonight. Which I will be watching and so should you if you can.

Presumptuous Blogging: Things you should read (08/06/15)

"Curiouser and curiouser" said the cat.


Ken Paxton sure is in the news a lot lately. Sadly for him and his supporters, not for doing his elected job so much as running afoul of the system of justice. (I leave it to you to decide on your own whether the charges are valid or not)

Speaking of which, Pulitzer Prize giftee, Lisa Falkenberg weighs in with something about towels and her former HS graduation backdrop.  Of course she did.

Garnet Coleman and the alleged racist traffic stop that wasn't.  Turns out dash-cam video can unearth political jiggery-pokery as well as police malfeasance.

In Spieler's world, adjusting bus routes to help 0.03% (What is that about 10 people?) of riders is a worthy and noble cause.  Job done here, on to fun things like Metrorail pub crawls, weddings and figuring out how to keep the poor and unwashed off of Houston's modern, sleek transit plaything.

Mayor Annise would like for you to please remember that HER Ordinance is NOT her signature issue.  This despite the fact that she has termed it 'personal' and has put the more pressing issue of pension reform (and city finances) on the back burner to help push it through.

Things you won't see on ChronBlog:  Why do people not want Tesla cars? Of course, it's hard to get real science reporting when the "science" reporter is too busy penning love letters to Elon Musk, dabbling at being a weatherman without a degree in meteorology and trying to ensure that everyone is convinced we are living on a superheated rock that's in danger of melting our faces off.  Other than that.....Science!!!

The City of Houston vs. Black Churches? - Of course, Parker says that the Houston Housing Authority is NOT the City of Houston. Never mind that she appointed the current head of the organization. (To be fair, in Parker's world she ended homelessness in Houston and fixed the city's currently crumbling infrastructure so there's that)

Any 'clean power' plan that downgrades the focus on natural gas is not, in any way, about 'clean' power. - It's about damaging a certain class of political donor who tends to give the majority of their money to the other side.

In reality, ALL news video is "highly edited" to make things more shocking. - What the media is not saying is that, unlike say....60 Minutes, the group that ran the stings on Planned Parenthood also released the unedited, raw footage.  This proves the fact that in politics, it's not what's real but what you can make the uninformed THINK is real.

And finally....perhaps the best insight into the idiocy of local political thinking that you will ever find, courtesy of the Chron's Grey Matters blog-type thingy....

a city council member has informed him that she is trying to find a way to amend the ordinance so that he can keep his kites on display. His solution? "Businesses whose majority of sales come from kites would be exempt."

*drops mike*

Tales of a sub-par media outlet: Anonymous comments bring the fun(ny).

Of all the angst and moaning over HER Ordinance heading to the voters, some of the funniest comes from the anonymous commenters on Chron.com....

HER Ordinance heads to voters in November. Katherine Driessen,Chron.com


From "Blue Texas" in the comments:

What a great opportunity for us to vote on other peoples(sic) rights. Maybe we should revisit "colored" folks using white drinking fountains, or sitting on the front of the bus. How about we put(sic) women's right to vote on the ballot?

Or better yet, how about we have a vote, in Houston, on castrating every white male republican we find within the city limits after sundown.(sic)

If this was political parody it would be well played.

But it's not. It's what passes for an attempt at real political satire by some (not all) in what's left of the Texas Democratic Party.

Want to know (one reason) why you're losing votes folks?

Beyond that it's probably worthwhile to take a look at some of the finer points in Mr. Blue's commentary....

What a great opportunity for us to vote on other peoples(sic) rights. Maybe we should revisit "colored" folks using white drinking fountains, or sitting on the front of the bus. How about we put(sic) women's right to vote on the ballot?

Except that, those rights are protected by either Federal statute, or Constitutional Amendment and cannot be overridden by a Houston city ordinance or election. From a Federal perspective, the GLBTIQ community is NOT currently a protected class.  This is what's known as a straw man argument.  It's also a non-sequitur.  For a straw-man to be effective it has to be realistic and illustrative.  This is neither.

Perhaps there is something to the argument that the recognition (not granting, the government cannot "grant" rights) of rights for a minority class should not be subject to the whims of the majority.  I am OK with the validity of this and think it's an important part of the American experiment. What IS (and should be) subject to the voter is how their elected officials choose to word that recognition. In this case, in her haste to make HER Ordinance what she wanted it to be, Mayor Parker chose some pretty dodgy wording that could have many unintended consequences going forward.

I am all for the GLBTIQ community's civil rights being recognized, but I (and others) have some fairly legitimate concerns about the 'gender self-identity' language that was inserted into the ordinance. It was way too broad and left way too much room for misinterpretation.  A tighter, more focused bill would still have detractors but it would probably also garner enough public support to pass. My contention on this has never been that it's a bad issue (maybe odd timing considering all of the other, more pressing, problems Houston is facing) only a bad ordinance.

Maybe, instead of building straw men and trying to roll back the Civil Rights Act and all of the Supreme Court rulings surrounding it, sensible people should work to craft a better ordinance?

Or better yet, how about we have a vote, in Houston, on castrating every white male republican we find within the city limits after sundown.(sic)

Snicker.  Try as I might I cannot come up with a rebuttal that's funnier than this statement just presented on its own.  That the writer thought it clever makes it funnier still.

I've been accused, by many, of being angry on this blog.  Those who know me understand just how wrong that accusation is. In fact, I'm very happy, and when I blog it's always with a chuckle, even on serious issues such as this. There is little funnier than the political class running amok and the responses of  the courtesan class that attempt to justify the same. If you want to see real, impotent, lashing-out at others political anger go read the comments on Chron.com.  Especially if you're feeling down and need a laugh (or three).

If you're Republican however I might suggest you avoid Mr. Blue after sundown.  He's probably against trophy hunting of animals, but I'm willing to bet he'd create a viewing room for his collection of Republican trunks.  (Yeouch!)

Houston Area Leadership Vaccum: For HER Ordinance: Commence Shenanigans.

Political truism:  Any time a politician is personally invested in a law, if they consider it either a "personal crusade" or a "legacy builder" for instance, you can be sure that they will do whatever they can to keep the law on the books.

We've already seen this with Mayor Parker and HER Ordinance.  From attempting to stamp out opposition through confiscatory subpoenas to illegally overriding the City's procedures for voter referendum certification (to a point that the Texas Supreme Court issued not only a stay, but also a directive to either repeal or put the issue to vote) we've seen the mean, petty side of Parker on display over this act.

In what is sure to not be the last act of a desperate woman, we now see the all to familiar attempt to make yes equal no and no equal yes.....

Ballot language Questioned in Equal Rights Ordinance. Doug Miller, KHOU.com

Here's the ballot language as it appears on the city council agenda:

"Shall the City of Houston repeal the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance, Ord. No. 2014-530, which prohibits discrimination in city employment and city services, city contracts, public accommodations, private employment, and housing based on an individual's sex, race, color, ethnicity, national origin, age, familial status, marital status, military status, religion, disability, sexual orientation, genetic information, gender identity, or pregnancy?"

There is a legal question as to whether or not this election is a repeal election, or whether Parker here is complying with the ruling of the court which states:

The Relators assert that under the Houston Charter, after the City Secretary certifies the

petition’s sufficiency, the City Council has a ministerial duty to immediately reconsider the ordinance and, if it does not repeal it, put it on the November 2015 ballot.

(...)

We agree with the Relators that the City Secretary certified their petition and thereby invoked the City Council’s ministerial duty to reconsider and repeal the ordinance or submit it to popular vote.

The language within the City Charter is fairly clear, at least it seems clear enough when common sense is applied. However, Houston government is currently not operating under the established rules of common sense, but under the  drive of a Mayor who's more interested in her personal political priorities (and future political candidacies) than she is in fulfilling her duties as Mayor for all Houstonians.

Think about this:  There are Federal laws which cover every minority group within HER Ordinance except one, and it's the one with which Parker happens to identify. In contrast, there are NO Federal laws covering Houston's financial mess, the growing infrastructure decline or the lack of financial oversight on almost all areas of Houston's governance. That Parker is throwing all of her support behind the former, while all but ignoring the latter, speaks volumes about whether she's governing, or trying to create a personal legacy as a launch pad for future, personal, political gain.

If anything, Houston's elected leaders should submit a straight-forward Her Ordinance proposal to the voters, asking them to either approve the ordinance or reject it, and turn their focus to more pressing problems than who uses what potty and whether or not city buildings have gardens on the roofs or are LEED certified.

Parker has stated that pension reform and the City budget are going to be items for "the next Mayor to deal with".  I would argue the counter. What Parker should do is focus on the larger items at hand, push to repeal the poorly-crafted HER Ordinance and let a Mayor who has less skin in the game give it another go.  This would not preclude Parker from being an advocate for the New ERO as a private citizen.  As a matter of fact, I would hope she would still choose to do so.

Maybe with a little bit more measured thought and a little less "this is very personal to me" anger we can end up with something better than the Grand Urinal Bargain of 2014.

I realize, of course, that this is a pipe dream.

Presumptuous Blogging: Things you should read. (08/03/2015)

Lots of stuff to catch up on....


Mayor Annise Parker is going all in to save HER Ordinance. - At the cost of the City of Houston's long-term financial future. 

What the Chron thinks is valuable political reporting. - Or, it could be said, that this is what certain Chron reporters are into these days.....

The TLSPM "gets" what Perry's victory means. - They're just angry because of what it means so they're trying to downplay it. (This is a group that tried, and failed, for years to 'get' Perry. Now what they viewed as their best chance is slipping away.)

Speaking of HER Ordinance... - The Pastors that were (perhaps unconstitutionally?) targeted by the administration are fighting back.

It's a little ironic that HER Ordinance is hurting those she wants to most support. - This is what happens when a politician gets "personal" and stops doing the job for which she was elected.

And then there's this. - Parker's single-mindedness on preserving HER Ordinance is threatening to make some pretty drastic changes to City Charter that could take a while to unwind. The damage could be very real.

Paxton to surrender, wrong questions being asked. - Why do you need to register with the State to provide investment advice anyway?

Perry has quietly been having some pretty solid policy speeches of late.  While "oops" is what the TLSPM would like you to remember the truth is Perry, of whom I'm no fan, has been knocking it out of the park lately, for the most part.

Fikac's obsession with Patrick's Facebook continues. - Her writing is just getting weirder and weirder.

The dumbing down of politics is a habit at the Chron. - First porn stars now Game of Thrones. Next we'll be seeing Nick Anderson try to do a Doonesbury knock off.

For your enjoyment, an article on smoked boudin. Maybe the most important piece of journalism appearing in the Chron this month.

Preserving wetlands in a coastal area is a worthy goal. - But I doubt the critics, or the Chron, realize what their goal of ultimate preservation truly means.

"What part of safety don't you understand?" With METRO and her supporters, it's always the rubes that live in Houston's fault. Never mind that the design is faulty.