Judging from the comments to the ChronBlog run-down of Jim Crane's comments to the Wall Street Journal, (You know, the "private company/give me a check for $10Mil comments) there are a couple of things the general public isn't getting about the current state of the Astros.
The big thing is, yes, the Astros are a private company, but they happen to ply their craft in a public stadium. This means that the public does have a substantial stake in the team. What that doesn't mean is that Astros fans should tell Crane how to spend his money, but it does mean that he's at least somewhat obligated to try and build a successful franchise. Not legally obligated for sure, but in that unwritten way that sports teams are part of the civic fabric. Where he has no obligation to the fans is to not be an idiot. Jim Crane comes across, at times, as a grade A idiot in interviews.
Then, there is the fact that, believe it or not, Crane is really not going to need much buy-in from Astros fans for this team to be successful. I know what you're saying, that he can't make a going concern of it with no ticket sales but I'd argue he's not going to lack for ticket sales, nor do they matter all that much. What's really important to this team's financial success is the success/failure of Comcast SportsNet: Houston. If that is a financial success then the Astros will be as well. Even IF Astros fans decide the team is not worth watching, there are going to be enough games where the stadium is full of Rangers, Yankee, Red Sox, Angels and fans of other teams to keep the Astros in the black. Anyone ready for Minute Maid Park to be listed as the worst home-field advantage in sports? Because that's what's getting ready to happen, at least for the next couple of years. And, with dynamic pricing now a big part of the Astros ticket selling strategy, it's likely they'll make more money on those Houstonians with other allegiances than they will on the hard-core Astros fan anyway.
Whatever the record of the team, this is still (on paper) Major League Baseball. It will be marketed as such and it really doesn't matter if the Astros are a major league caliber team or not. What matters is that their opponents will be, on most nights, and that will be enough to keep enough fans streaming through the turnstiles, paying a lot for bad beer and marginal concessions or deciding to tune in and watch on TV at levels sufficient to keep advertising revenue flowing in.
In short: The Astros don't need the Astros fan any longer to make money. They don't even (really) have to win. As a matter of fact, the more they lose to opposing teams at home the more those teams are going to come and watch, and be willing to pay ever higher-prices for the privilege of seeing their favorite Nine beat the crap out of the hapless home team. Financially then it might be the best policy for the Astros to keep losing.
That's a scary thought.
Friday, March 15, 2013
Whistling while Reliant Burns
Given the disastrous start to the Texans free-agency season, you'd think the analysis would be a little more measured than this.
Don't get me wrong, I like Ed Reed as a potential short-term replacement for Glover Quin, but I don't like the roster of wide receivers, I don't like the returning offensive line (and don't give me the "three pro bowl" players crap. The o-line was barely average last year), I don't like the depth at cornerback, I don't like the current linebacker situation, I don't like the special teams at all, I don't like the fact that the Texans are looking at an rapidly aging defensive backfield with no depth, I don't like that Arian Foster has been declining in production every year and I don't like Matt Schaub at quarterback.
It doesn't matter whether or not the Texans have a plan in place or not($$$) if that plan is a bad one. And, despite McClain's obvious fealty to the Texans PR line, whatever plan they claim to have is reactionary at best.
As Houston lawyer, and author of the blog Houston's Clear Thinkers Tom Kirkendall recently reminded me: McClain and the Chron scribes were singing this exact same "everything is OK, these guys know what they're doing" tune right before the disastrous 2-14 season.
I don't think the Texans will go 2-14 next year, but I don't think they're on a path to win the division either. I think Indianapolis now is the front-runner with the Texans battling for Wild Card scraps. Last year I underestimated how easy their early schedule would be, and figured they'd go 8-8. They beat that guess by four games, but played sub-.500 ball in the last quarter of the season and the playoffs (1-3 to finish the year and 1-1 in the playoffs)
Next season, although the schedule isn't set, we know who they're playing at home and on the road.
Home:
Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Denver, Oakland, St. Louis, Seattle, New England
Road:
Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Kansas City, San Diego, Arizona, San Francisco, Baltimore
It's not beyond the pale to see this team finishing 4-4 at home and 5-3 on the road.
That's 9-7, and I'm betting that won't win the division next year. It might not even make the playoffs.
Don't get me wrong, I like Ed Reed as a potential short-term replacement for Glover Quin, but I don't like the roster of wide receivers, I don't like the returning offensive line (and don't give me the "three pro bowl" players crap. The o-line was barely average last year), I don't like the depth at cornerback, I don't like the current linebacker situation, I don't like the special teams at all, I don't like the fact that the Texans are looking at an rapidly aging defensive backfield with no depth, I don't like that Arian Foster has been declining in production every year and I don't like Matt Schaub at quarterback.
It doesn't matter whether or not the Texans have a plan in place or not($$$) if that plan is a bad one. And, despite McClain's obvious fealty to the Texans PR line, whatever plan they claim to have is reactionary at best.
As Houston lawyer, and author of the blog Houston's Clear Thinkers Tom Kirkendall recently reminded me: McClain and the Chron scribes were singing this exact same "everything is OK, these guys know what they're doing" tune right before the disastrous 2-14 season.
I don't think the Texans will go 2-14 next year, but I don't think they're on a path to win the division either. I think Indianapolis now is the front-runner with the Texans battling for Wild Card scraps. Last year I underestimated how easy their early schedule would be, and figured they'd go 8-8. They beat that guess by four games, but played sub-.500 ball in the last quarter of the season and the playoffs (1-3 to finish the year and 1-1 in the playoffs)
Next season, although the schedule isn't set, we know who they're playing at home and on the road.
Home:
Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Denver, Oakland, St. Louis, Seattle, New England
Road:
Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Kansas City, San Diego, Arizona, San Francisco, Baltimore
It's not beyond the pale to see this team finishing 4-4 at home and 5-3 on the road.
That's 9-7, and I'm betting that won't win the division next year. It might not even make the playoffs.
Monday, March 11, 2013
What Wojnarowski said
The dunk was great, but being willing to stick in there and take one for the team was greater.
Backward culture makes punch line of Brandon King for trying to stop DeAndre Jordan's dunk. Adrian Wojnarkowsi, Yahoo! Sports
Silly chants of POSTER! by local radio sports talkers and idiotic ramblings by various ESPN 'analysts' have the basketball value system upside down. That's why Jordan will always be a better player than Kobe or LaBron, not because of his dunks or athleticism (although that's what he's remembered best for) but because he did the little things well.
Give me Brandon King on my team over DeAndre Jordan any day of the week.
Backward culture makes punch line of Brandon King for trying to stop DeAndre Jordan's dunk. Adrian Wojnarkowsi, Yahoo! Sports
Silly chants of POSTER! by local radio sports talkers and idiotic ramblings by various ESPN 'analysts' have the basketball value system upside down. That's why Jordan will always be a better player than Kobe or LaBron, not because of his dunks or athleticism (although that's what he's remembered best for) but because he did the little things well.
Give me Brandon King on my team over DeAndre Jordan any day of the week.
Golf Boys 2.Oh
A rare case where the sequel is better than the original.
Proceeds from the song go to charity as well so it's a win/win.
Proceeds from the song go to charity as well so it's a win/win.
Thursday, March 07, 2013
Women's MMA: The result will remain the same.
It doesn't really matter whether or not MMA transgender figher Fallon Fox was born a man or a woman.
Put her in the ring with Rousey and she'll get her arm broken off.
Put her in the ring with Rousey and she'll get her arm broken off.
Wednesday, March 06, 2013
In answer to Mr. Harvey's question.
With the 27th pick.....why not Te'o for Texans? Randy Harvey, HoustonChronicle.com ($$$)
Answer: Because he's slow (4.82 in the 40) not near as big as advertised (6'1 1/4 244lbs instead of the 6'2" 255 lb linebacker ND pretended he was) not especially strong, not all that quick or sure of foot (he fell down during the pass rush drill) and his game tape against Alabama (the closest he came in college to playing against NFL level talent) was abysmal.
Next question.
Answer: Because he's slow (4.82 in the 40) not near as big as advertised (6'1 1/4 244lbs instead of the 6'2" 255 lb linebacker ND pretended he was) not especially strong, not all that quick or sure of foot (he fell down during the pass rush drill) and his game tape against Alabama (the closest he came in college to playing against NFL level talent) was abysmal.
Next question.
Monday, January 14, 2013
Replacing Schaub will not fix this Texans' mess.
Don't get me wrong, it won't hurt to replace Schaub, as a matter of fact it would probably help, but replacing him is not going to fix all that is wrong with this team.
The day after the Foxborough massacre v 2.0 there's much hand-wringing and soul-searching being conducted by the Houston Chronicle's terrible trifecta of sports columnists: John McClain, Jerome Solomon & Randy Harvey (mercifully hidden behind the pay wall)
Their analysis takes the easy road, blaming Kubiak and the play-calling, Matt Schaub for just about everything, the Texans toughness, local sports history with only passing mention of the sub-par defense (They gave up 42 & 41 points in two games against the Patriots) and almost no mention of how lacking in talent the team was proven to be in the last half of the season.
In some ways I have a different perspective of the Texans because I'm not a fan. I'm a 49ers fan and all is well in the land Joe Montana built. For the Texans however there are several issues that need to be addressed.
What happened to the defense? I realize that the easy thing to do is look at this Texans team and blame Matt Schaub, and we'll get to him in a moment. But in what world can you be expected to win a playoff game when the defense gives up 41? This entire season has been built around #bullsonparade when really the Texans had a #bullsoncharade defense that came up severely lacking against playoff caliber teams. Outside of JJ Watt there is no pass rush (If the team re-signs Conor Barwin for any money at all you have my permission to scream) the linebackers were worthless without Cushing in the line-up, and the defensive backfield depth chart includes Shiloh Keo. The Texans' d needs a talent infusion and some depth, and despite all of the belief in Wade Phillips they're not going to be very good without it.
Oh that O-line. You can talk all you want about the Texans' anemic (at times) run game and the poor play of their QB (more on that in a minute) but it all starts (and ends) with a very pedestrian offensive line. Before you start screaming "Pro-Bowl" at me realize that the voting for that is a sham. In all the Texans have 2 pro-caliber O-linemen on the roster: Brown and Myers. The remaining rotational players (and yes, I'm including Wade Smith) need to be shuffled down the depth chart immediately. Either through the draft or through free agency the Texans need to totally remake the guys up front. Until they do there's going to be a lot more heartbreak in Texans' fans future than there is now.
Kubiak. Some say he's too conservative, some say he can't make in-game adjustments, some say he's tone-deaf when it comes to how to use the NFL's challenge system. I think all of these apply (somewhat) although he did, finally, muster up a successful challenge on Sunday. The problem with Kubiak is that it seems the modern NFL game has passed him by. In an age where even his mentor, Washington coach Mike Shanahan, has adopted a mobile quarterback Kubiak still seems stuck in an age where an immobile guy with below-average arm-strength can get you to a Superbowl. In today's NFL you either need a mobile quarterback (Kaepernick) or a nimble QB with good arm-strength who, although not a scrambler, can move in the pocket and extend plays (Brady and to a lesser extent Ryan) or a guy who can utilize a strong run game and take a shot deep (That's right, Flacco) Kubiak doesn't seem to get this and he doesn't understand the need to audible. For Kubiak, the script is the key, but when the script gets figured out by opposing teams he doesn't have a plan B, or C, or 1-A for that matter.
OK, Schaub. First off, I like Matt Schaub. He seems like a decent, nice guy who's making the most of his limited tools. That said, he's not fleet of foot, and he's lost all confidence in his ability to throw the deep ball (this doesn't mean that he can't throw the deep ball). Schaub's idea of evading a blitz means to either throw the ball away, or fall down and take a sack. He's the ultimate quarterback for Kubiak's brand of ball. On-schedule? Schaub will (usually) make the play. When the Texans offense gets off-schedule though he's a turnover or badly thrown pass waiting to happen. Maybe, if the Texans get their defense back, he can win you some games behind a strong running game and timely passing, but since that's not looking like it's going to happen the Texans have probably been taken by him as far as they're going to go. He's got a long contract in place, so their best bet is probably to draft someone and have them learn how to QB by carrying a clipboard for a year.
Finally, WR talent. Currently the Texans receiving core is Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels and......nothing. Kevin Walter is a good WR if you want someone who will block for the running game, Keyshawn Johnson is nothing special, and DeVier Posey might be the unluckiest player on the Texans roster. It's time for the Texans to get serious about bringing in some real players to up the talent level in the receiving corps. A first start would be a pair of big, pass-catching tight ends that are being used with great effect throughout the lead. The second step would be to get a slot receiver who runs good routes and is constantly open in the Wes Welker vein (Ryan Swopes?) and a stretch-the-field 2nd receiver who can take some of the deep-field pressure off of Andre (a poor man's Torrey Smith).
Despite all of the holes in talent the Texans were good enough to finish the regular season 12-4. That most of the 12 wins were against bad teams went unnoticed until the 42-14 shellacking in the Foxborough Massacre v1.0. They beat a not-ready-for-prime-time Bengals team before flaming out against that same Patriots team. After the hot start, this season felt like one long march down the road to eventual elimination short of even the NFC Championship game. Texans fans are right to say "wait until next year" but for this to have any steam behind it the team needs to make several personnel upgrades before they even think about addressing the QB situation. Schaub's number 8 at the end of the season may have more closely resembled David Carr's number 8 than say, Troy Aikman's but, it'd be OK if he didn't have to score 42 points against the Patriots to advance.
The day after the Foxborough massacre v 2.0 there's much hand-wringing and soul-searching being conducted by the Houston Chronicle's terrible trifecta of sports columnists: John McClain, Jerome Solomon & Randy Harvey (mercifully hidden behind the pay wall)
Their analysis takes the easy road, blaming Kubiak and the play-calling, Matt Schaub for just about everything, the Texans toughness, local sports history with only passing mention of the sub-par defense (They gave up 42 & 41 points in two games against the Patriots) and almost no mention of how lacking in talent the team was proven to be in the last half of the season.
In some ways I have a different perspective of the Texans because I'm not a fan. I'm a 49ers fan and all is well in the land Joe Montana built. For the Texans however there are several issues that need to be addressed.
What happened to the defense? I realize that the easy thing to do is look at this Texans team and blame Matt Schaub, and we'll get to him in a moment. But in what world can you be expected to win a playoff game when the defense gives up 41? This entire season has been built around #bullsonparade when really the Texans had a #bullsoncharade defense that came up severely lacking against playoff caliber teams. Outside of JJ Watt there is no pass rush (If the team re-signs Conor Barwin for any money at all you have my permission to scream) the linebackers were worthless without Cushing in the line-up, and the defensive backfield depth chart includes Shiloh Keo. The Texans' d needs a talent infusion and some depth, and despite all of the belief in Wade Phillips they're not going to be very good without it.
Oh that O-line. You can talk all you want about the Texans' anemic (at times) run game and the poor play of their QB (more on that in a minute) but it all starts (and ends) with a very pedestrian offensive line. Before you start screaming "Pro-Bowl" at me realize that the voting for that is a sham. In all the Texans have 2 pro-caliber O-linemen on the roster: Brown and Myers. The remaining rotational players (and yes, I'm including Wade Smith) need to be shuffled down the depth chart immediately. Either through the draft or through free agency the Texans need to totally remake the guys up front. Until they do there's going to be a lot more heartbreak in Texans' fans future than there is now.
Kubiak. Some say he's too conservative, some say he can't make in-game adjustments, some say he's tone-deaf when it comes to how to use the NFL's challenge system. I think all of these apply (somewhat) although he did, finally, muster up a successful challenge on Sunday. The problem with Kubiak is that it seems the modern NFL game has passed him by. In an age where even his mentor, Washington coach Mike Shanahan, has adopted a mobile quarterback Kubiak still seems stuck in an age where an immobile guy with below-average arm-strength can get you to a Superbowl. In today's NFL you either need a mobile quarterback (Kaepernick) or a nimble QB with good arm-strength who, although not a scrambler, can move in the pocket and extend plays (Brady and to a lesser extent Ryan) or a guy who can utilize a strong run game and take a shot deep (That's right, Flacco) Kubiak doesn't seem to get this and he doesn't understand the need to audible. For Kubiak, the script is the key, but when the script gets figured out by opposing teams he doesn't have a plan B, or C, or 1-A for that matter.
OK, Schaub. First off, I like Matt Schaub. He seems like a decent, nice guy who's making the most of his limited tools. That said, he's not fleet of foot, and he's lost all confidence in his ability to throw the deep ball (this doesn't mean that he can't throw the deep ball). Schaub's idea of evading a blitz means to either throw the ball away, or fall down and take a sack. He's the ultimate quarterback for Kubiak's brand of ball. On-schedule? Schaub will (usually) make the play. When the Texans offense gets off-schedule though he's a turnover or badly thrown pass waiting to happen. Maybe, if the Texans get their defense back, he can win you some games behind a strong running game and timely passing, but since that's not looking like it's going to happen the Texans have probably been taken by him as far as they're going to go. He's got a long contract in place, so their best bet is probably to draft someone and have them learn how to QB by carrying a clipboard for a year.
Finally, WR talent. Currently the Texans receiving core is Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels and......nothing. Kevin Walter is a good WR if you want someone who will block for the running game, Keyshawn Johnson is nothing special, and DeVier Posey might be the unluckiest player on the Texans roster. It's time for the Texans to get serious about bringing in some real players to up the talent level in the receiving corps. A first start would be a pair of big, pass-catching tight ends that are being used with great effect throughout the lead. The second step would be to get a slot receiver who runs good routes and is constantly open in the Wes Welker vein (Ryan Swopes?) and a stretch-the-field 2nd receiver who can take some of the deep-field pressure off of Andre (a poor man's Torrey Smith).
Despite all of the holes in talent the Texans were good enough to finish the regular season 12-4. That most of the 12 wins were against bad teams went unnoticed until the 42-14 shellacking in the Foxborough Massacre v1.0. They beat a not-ready-for-prime-time Bengals team before flaming out against that same Patriots team. After the hot start, this season felt like one long march down the road to eventual elimination short of even the NFC Championship game. Texans fans are right to say "wait until next year" but for this to have any steam behind it the team needs to make several personnel upgrades before they even think about addressing the QB situation. Schaub's number 8 at the end of the season may have more closely resembled David Carr's number 8 than say, Troy Aikman's but, it'd be OK if he didn't have to score 42 points against the Patriots to advance.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)